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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 15th December (SADO)
Crocodile - 14 Dec 2003 13:53
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US Futures roar ahead on news of Saddam capture Safeway, Morrison agrees a new three billion pound bid for rival Safeway to challenge for third position in the supermarket sector. This works out at 283p a share. Aggreko which rents out power generators, said its second half performance had been as expected and it anticipated its full year performance would meet forecasts. The company also announced further reorganisation and restructuring of its European and North American businesses. Psion said on Monday it expected group financial results for 2003 to be in line with management's expectations.The firm said it was generating cash and its net cash position at the end of November stood at 16.6 million pounds after paying 17.4 million to purchase additional shares in Symbian. George Wimpey The UK's biggest housebuilder said on Monday it expected group results for 2003 at the top end of market expectations, as it continued to ride a housing market boom in the UK. "We will enter 2004 with healthy order books although the US market is expected to be weaker in 2004 Inchcape said it expected profits for the year to be slightly ahead of current market consensus of 127.7 million pounds Lloyds TSB The UK's fifth-biggest bank, said on Monday that full-year trading would be in line with analysts' forecasts. The bank's asset quality remains good, Lloyds said in a statement. |
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Aggreko (Trading Statement) Inchcape (Trading Statement) George Wimpey (Trading Statement) LloydsTSB (Trading Statement)AWG PLC return of capital, 40 redeemable shares for 1 ordinary share held, ex date |
Oracle, 13.30 Dec NY Fed Manufacturing, 41.01% prev. 18.00 Dec NAHB Housing Market Index, 69.0% prev. |
Club Med, Zodiac, H&M, |
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Crocodile - 14 Dec 2003 13:54 - 2 of 61
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Aggreko (Trading Statement) Inchcape (Trading Statement) George Wimpey (Trading Statement) LloydsTSB (Trading Statement)AWG PLC return of capital, 40 redeemable shares for 1 ordinary share held, ex date |
Oracle, 13.30 Dec NY Fed Manufacturing, 41.01% prev. 18.00 Dec NAHB Housing Market Index, 69.0% prev. |
Club Med, Zodiac, H&M, | ||||||
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Carpetright (H1) HBOS (Trading Statement) GKN (Trading Statement) Persimmon (Trading Statement)Praxair Inc stock split ex date, 2 shares for every 1 share held 00.30 Nov RICS Housing Survey, +40 exp.. 09.30 Nov RPIX y/y, 2.6% exp.. 09.30 Nov HICP y/y, 1.5% exp. 09.30 Treasury Officials Comment on Pre-Budget Report |
Comverse Technologies, 13.30 Nov CPI m/m, 0.1% exp. 13.30 Nov Housing Starts, 1.9m exp. 13.30 Nov Building Permits 14.15 Nov Industrial Production, 0.4% exp. 14.15 Nov Capacity Utilisation, 75.3% exp |
VNU 11.00 3rd Quarter Production in Construction | ||||||
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Hanson (Trading Statement) Misys (Trading Statement) 09.30 Nov Unemployment Rate, 3.0% exp. 09.30 Oct Average Earnings 3m y/y, 3.6% exp. 09.30 Bank Of England MPC Minutes |
Bear Stearns, Circuit City, FedEx, Lehman |
Bouygues, Elior, 11.00 Nov HICP m/m, y/y, 0.1%,2.0% prev. 11.00 Oct Industrial Production m/m, y/y, 1.9%,2.6% prev. | ||||||
Ex Dividend: AWG Plc (14), Babcock International Group (1.25), Belhaven Group PLC (3.95), Blacks, Leisure Group Plc (2.6), Carlton Communications Plc (2), Carr's Milling Industries (7.5), Cropper (James) (1.9), Dawson Holdings Plc (4.3), Electrocomponents Plc (5.6), Ferraris Group Plc (3.6), Findel PLC (3.1), GET Group PLC (5.2), Gleeson (M.J.) Group Plc (28.25), Glenmorangie Plc (GMGA LN) (4.5), Glenmorangie Plc (GMGB LN) (2.25), Granada Plc (1), GWR Group Plc (2.3), International Greetings Plc (1.5), Investec PLC (28), iSOFT Group PLC (0.7), Meriden Group PLC (0.013), Mitchells & Butlers PLC (5.65), Next Fifteen Communications PLC (0.7), Northamber Plc (2), Numis Corp Plc (7.5), Punch Taverns PLC (4.4), Radstone Technology Plc (0.75), Ransom (William) & Son plc (0.5), Severn Trent PLC (17.77), Shanks Group Plc (1.9), Telford Homes PLC (1.5), Tex Holdings Plc (3.5), Total Systems Plc (1.05), Tribal Group Plc (1), United Utilities PLC (UU/ LN) (14.43), Universal, Salvage Plc (1.2) | ||||||||
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Carnival (Q4)National Express (Trading Statement) Smith & Nephew (Trading Statement) Advanced Technology bonissue of warrants ex date 09.30 Nov PSNCR, 7bn exp. 09.30 Chancellor Brown Comments on the Pre-Budget Report 09.30 Nov Retail Sales m/m, 0.1% exp. 09.30 Nov Preliminary M4 Money Supply y/y, 6.7% exp. 09.30 Nov CML, BBA & BSA Lending |
US: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 13/12) 15.00 Nov Leading Indicators, 0.3% exp. 17.00 Dec Philly Fed, 25.90 prev. |
Europe: Infogrammes, Cap Gemini, Nordex 08.00 Dec German IFO Expectations, 108.7 prev. 11.00 3rd Quarter Labour Costs | ||||||
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Wilson Bowden (Trading Statement) 09.30 Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Released 09.30 Nov Car Production 3m/3m FTSE Index changes effective after the close of business |
Paychex |
Europe: Kaufman & Broad 07:50 French HICP final prev. 11.00 Oct Trade Balance |
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| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week 22nd - 26th December | ||||||||
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UK CBI settlements survey 09:30 UK NTC Nov leading indicators 09:30 UK Q3 revised business investment
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1:30 Chain Deflator-Final 1:30 GDP-Final 1:30 Personal Income 1:30 Personal Spending |
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All LSE Markets Closed from 12.30 |
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Ex Dividend: | ||||||||
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Christmas Day |
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Boxing Day |
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| Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead - Sunday 14th November |
Its the last full week of trading before Christmas and the last 2 banks, Llyods & HBOS provide updates Earnings reports from several U.S. investment banks including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs could influence shares in European banks such as Credit Suisse & Deutsche Bank Wimpey , Persimmon and Wilson Bowden release have trading updates. Housebuilders have, on the whole, been selling more homes at higher unit prices this year. That should imply positive announcements from this trio. It will be interesting to see what comments are made about the Barker Review of Housing Supply, which reckoned that 39,000 new homes need to be built each year just to keep up with the UK's population. The review also blamed rising house prices on developers in the southeast sitting on land, something the housebuilders may be keen to refute.Monday Following upbeat trading statements from othe banks it would not be surprising to see LLoyds have a rise especially if the markets are positive following the news of the capture of Saddam Hussein. The trading update on Monday should hopefully give reassurance from Lloyds TSB that it does not plan a dividend cut. George Wimpey is expected to confirm that sales volumes and margins are set to meet or beat market forecasts. Oracle (US), an earnings report from the world's second-biggest software company could affect the share price of European software stocks U.S. economic releases in focus will be the New York Federal Reserve manufacturing survey on MondayTuesday Carpetright the carpet retailer warned last October that sales in the 22 weeks to 1 May were down by 0.8%. Additionally, Carpetright said disappointing summer sales reduced like-for-like sales by 1.5%. Nevertheless, Carpetright assured that overall profitability would be in line with expectations. Hmmmm Persimmon trading update. HBOS Investors will look for continued revenue growth and positive comments on credit quality GKN give an important updaye on the health of the engineering sector after saying in August it was on track to hit forecasts for full-year Persimmon should be upbeat about the outlook for 2004 as volume expansion is expected to compensate for lower prices. Wednesday Bank of England releases minutes from its December interest rate meeting Baggeridge Brick is expected to turn in a solid performance when it reports full-year results. Analysts are looking for the group to post a 75% increase in pre-tax profits to 5.6m, with earnings per share of 9.3p. London Clubs International casino operator reports interims. The owner of the Sportsman and 50 St James' casinos is expected to post improved results on the back of its upbeat AGM statement. The company added that it was well positioned to operate in the post deregulation environment, though just exactly when the Draft Gambling Bill will be introduced is uncertain. Philadelphia Fed survey and weekly jobless claimsThursday Carnival , Analysts say cruise ship operator is likely to turn in a 3.9% fall in pre-tax profits to 818m when it reports full-year results Friday The euro trading near lifetime highs around $1.2250 makes exports to the United States more expensive and puts pressure on profit margins at company's with dollar earnings like luxury goods group Gucci . But Gucci, majority owned by France's Pinault Printemps Redoute , is expected to cheer investors with third-quarter results on Friday if it backs up perceptions of growing global demand. Thoughts A very interesting chart this week showing how the FTSE has fallen through support while the DOW continues to test resistance before falling back. Certainly selling of the DOW at resistance would have been very lucrative over the last few months!. It also shows how well over the last 6 months the FTSE & DOW tracked each other until the last 2 weeks. Perhaps the UK institutions have decided the markets have risen enough. Looking towards next week I expect the markets to rise on the news of the capture of Saddam Hussein before a sharp fall on the DOW as computer selling kicks in, As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead! David (Crocodile) David@SnappyTrader.com www.SnappyTrader.comAll the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Crocodile - 14 Dec 2003 13:55 - 3 of 61
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Headlines Sunday 14th December An investigation into the UK's telecommunications industry could result in cheaper telephone, mobile and Internet calls, it has been claimed. The Times. |
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SUNDAY TIMES Scotland: HBOS to review Ryder Cup deal Morrison offers cash and shares Ryanair Holdings Germans to enter no-frills air market Capital Radio aims to regain No 1 spot BSkyB Crunch time for football TV rights Safeway Morrison offers cash and shares Royal and Sun Alliance poised to sell 600m UK life business Yeoman on guard against further losses Russian taxman sets sights on BP partners Independent News and Media sell-offs send share price soaring Manchester United Crunch time for football TV rights Bernerd goes for Chelsfield Leeds chairman to resign ICAP Trinity Mirror Working space MyTravel Group, Ryanair Holdings TUI takes on budget airlines |
We are not going bust, says MyTravel chief Forth Ports Victoria Masterson: On the waterfront easyJet 'Stansted could kill UK aviation' William Lewis: Morrison, the next move on the board is yours Chorion Takeover tussle upsets Toy Town British Airways TUI takes on budget airlines Sharewatch: HBOS Agenda: William Lewis: Morrison, the next move on the board is yours LastMinute.com Forth Ports Charles Hammond's working day Sharewatch: BT Group British Airways: 'Stansted could kill UK aviation' Spencer's good turn ICAP Directors' Deals: Mirror boss reflects on share buys |
| RAC is on course to deliver dividend* growth of between 5 and 6% for the next couple of years. If it plods on and makes a habit of delivering inflation busting increases of this sort in future, the share price will flourish. Since the dividend yield* is a chunky 4.6% at present, todays starting price is a more than reasonable one. Buy NHPs management is doing great things. But a local authority funding issue means the shares hold risk that is out of kilter with the potential rewards. Avoid. Competition in the car hire business is always intense but never more so than when the industry is in the doldrums and the only scope for growth is by snatching market share from rival companies. This is bad news for Avis, the Sunday Times reckons, so it should be avoided. | |
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SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Safeway war nears end GlaxoSmithKline Garnier to scoop up to 5.7m a year BAE Systems Portillo tries for chair Canary Wharf Reichmann bid backed WH Smith dividend risk Chorion Hands off Noddy! |
A safe landing for MyTravel? Group New boss in Boots M&S: all change at HQ BT pins its hopes on IT deals Matalan Coming right in the end MyTravel down to last resort |
| Music-to-videos retailer HMV has cheered investors with a 49% rise in its share price since January but the stock may well have peaked. The group admitted that sales had been hit in the second quarter by the hot summer with like-for-like sales up just 0.3% in the 21 weeks to September 20. Christmas will be crucial and HMV chief executive Alan Giles is confident of a good festive trading period with major DVD releases including Johnny Depp's latest vehicle Pirates of the Caribbean. But HMV is coming under increasing pressure from supermarket rivals offering big discounts on the most popular CDs and DVDs. Sell at 170.75p. Chemring, the niche defence manufacturer, is best placed to escape the gloom surrounding the stocks of armaments makers following publication of the Government's white paper on defence last week. The group has been boosted by sales of its Kilgore flares that combat heat-seeking missiles and were widely used in Iraq. The group is now poised for further opportunities when the US government considers legislation that would force commercial airliners to be fitted with missile protection systems. Buy at 385.5p. | |
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OBSERVER Sanctuary scores with Kelly Morrison and Safeway to clinch 3bn deal MyTravel Group Long haul to find the sunshine Desmond in fresh cull at the National Express MoD faces budget clash over aircraft carriers BAE Systems GlaxoSmithKline Garnier gives up perks to head off fat-cat row |
Bad to worse at WH Smith BSkyB Play on: Premiership can't afford full Monti BP Cheapside National Express Now Hill starts an Express rescue |
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SUNDAY MAIL High Street retailer WH Smith will kick off the New Year with a dramatic profits warning - and the disclosure of hundreds of job losses at head office, including senior figures. |
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INDEPENDENT Lloyds under pressure over 2bn cash pile The Week Ahead: HBOS climbs the property ladder Sainsbury, William Morrison Never mind sleigh bells. Britain's retailers are listening for the sound of tills ringing There were no happy landings after Monti got hold of MyTravel |
WH Smith, MKS Never mind sleigh bells. Britain's retailers are listening for the sound of tills ringing GUS, Boots Never mind sleigh bells. Britain's retailers are listening for the sound of tills ringing Never mind sleigh bells. Britain's retailers are listening for the sound of tills ringing Boots, Tesco Never mind sleigh bells. Britain's retailers are listening for the sound of tills ringing |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Noble Investments intentions towards funding games Isis tipped to buy Abbey National fund management business BP set to pull out of Safeway joint venture Bethel grabs Babcock Post |
J Beattie Financial loses MD to rival Bell Pottinger HBOS Wherever has the swan girl flown? |
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SUNDAY EXPRESS SStocks of high street retailers have suffered recently as concerns over consumer debt and higher interest results impact on consumer spend, but electrical goods vendor Dixons still looks undervalued. Analysts say the share price has been discounted too heavily with underlying data showing a healthy cushion should Christmas trading prove disappointing. Buy at 132p. Prospects of an upswing in shares of mm02, look good with City speculation of consolidation in the mobile communications sector continuing to persist. mm02, which was reported to be a target of Japanese mobile giant DoCoMo a month ago, is also buoyed by strong subscriber growth and trading in Germany. Analysts are upbeat on news that debt and distribution policies are being considered. Buy at 78.75p. Shares in industrial property group Workspace should have further to go, lifted by better-than-expected interim results last month. Workspace reported pre-tax profits of 3.4 million for the six months to September 30 - more than double what it reaped at the same stage last year. With analysts setting a target price of 1475p, the stock is a speculative buy at 1425p. |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy United Business Media (UBM.L) at 503p - Workspace (WKP.L) at 14.25 - Honeycombe Leisure (HCL.L) at 71p - OMG (OMG.L) at 22p - Ramco (ROS.L) at 308p. Sell Peacock Group (PEA.L) at 211p.Updates: Buy Alliance & Leicester (AL.L), Finsbury Food (FIF.L) and Camec. Sell Eurotunnel (ETL.L) and WH Smith (SMWH.L).Shares that are making a Great Comeback: Ben Bailey (BBC.L) - Celsis (CEL.L) - Character Group (CCT.L) - Hitachi Capital (HCU.L) - Hornby (HRN.L) - Oxus Mining (OXS.L) - Volex (VLX.L).Company Results: Sell Phytopharm (PYM.L) Buy Creston (CRE.L) and David S Smith (SMDS.L). |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy Clarity Commerce Solutions (CCS.L) at 71.5p - The Wireless Group (TWG.L) at 88.5p - Cambrian Mining (CBM.L) at 50p - Zytronic (ZYT.L) at 68p - SCi Entertainment (SEG.L) at 119.5p.Updates: Buy Dyson Group (DYS.L), Jubilee Platinum (JLP.L) and CMS Webview (CWV.L). Hold Innovation Group (TIG.L).Public Finance Initiative is Money in the Bank: Interserve (IRV.L) - iSoft (IOT.L) - Serco (SRP.L) - Jarvis (JRVS.L) - WS Atkins (ATK.L) - Carillion (CLLN.L) - John Laing (LNGO.L). |
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midknight
- 14 Dec 2003 15:31
- 4 of 61
The festive season plays tricks on all of us! Cheers.
Melnibone - 14 Dec 2003 16:13 - 5 of 61
I wonder how much the initial mark-up will be on Monday
morning?
I can't imagine there being many sellers to start
with. The weaker Bears who held shorts open for the weekend
will help to fuel the rise as they cover.
There are going to be a lot of people looking to short this
bounce, myself included, so when it starts to topple I wouldn't
be surprised to see the trend supports give way.
As it also the last week of full trading, would I be correct in
saying that this week will be when some Funds and Institutions will be
looking to lock in some year end profits as well as selling some
underperformers for Tax reasons?
If so, they'll wait for the higher prices and then help to fuel
the decline along with the normal traders who are taking long profits
and reversing into short positions.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 14 Dec 2003 19:06
- 6 of 61
I think we should be a lot more positive about the future. With the news from Iraq, the people there should finally be able to rebuild thier country and move on, without any fear that Saddam may reappear. (And hopefully be too busy to be terrorists anymore!) Plus with most of the money for rebuilding which will be awarded to US companies who will inturn contract the work to UK companies (as the US companies will be too scared to actually go to Iraq to do the work!) and UK companies should do very nicely out of it - thank you very much!
Melnibone - I'm afraid you will not be correct in saying that "this week will be when some Funds and Institutions will be looking to lock in some year end profits as well as selling some underperformers for Tax reasons?" - as all companies, funds & institutions paid Tax accordinging to the Govt/IR tax year and therefore the deadline is 5th April 2004 which is the tax year end!
Jumpin
- 14 Dec 2003 22:53
- 7 of 61
ThePlayboy
- 15 Dec 2003 07:17
- 8 of 61
Key DOW Levels for 12/15
UP Above 10,075
DN Below 9,900
Continued Uptrend
Dow continues steady push higher, ends day with 34 point gain.
From prior commentary, "...The index continues to push higher within the wide, upward-sloping range...Look for the index to continue higher within the range for tomorrow's market..."
The Dow opened the session lower this morning, but got a v-bottom reversal off the lows that sparked a steady rise the remainder of the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The Dow closed above the 10,000 mark for the second straight session and continues to close in on the upper boundary of the wide, upward-sloping trading range, seen in the 60 Minute Chart.
Look for the Dow to continue higher toward the upper boundary of the range until either a break or bounce of the upper line is seen. That is where the decision will be made; An upside break through the upper boundary of the range at 10,075 will likely spark an even greater advance, while a downside reversal off the upper line will mark the beginning of a likely decline back toward the lower boundary of the range. A downside break through 10,000 will likely fuel such a move.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the 1 Minute Chart. A downside break of the line at 10,040 will make for weakness tomorrow morning. Otherwise, look for further strength above the line in the short term.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Long at 9,971 and are still in the position. We will move stops up to 10,000 for tomorrow's market to lock in some profit on a pullback. We will stay Long above 10,075, but will wait for Shorts until 9,900 is crossed to the downside, using 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P trended slowly higher off the day's lows, ending the session at the day's highs. Look for further strength Monday, as each index has formed consolidations at the highs. *
Summary
The Dow moved higher off the day's lows, pushing and holding back above the 10,000. The index will likely continue trending higher toward the upper boundary of the wide, sloping range. A break or bounce at the upper boundary will be key.
MONDAY FTSE PP
R2 4385
R1 4366
PP 4348
S1 4329
S2 4311
Fri close on R2 after gaining2.8pts in the auction!
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4451
R1 4399
PP 4356
S1 4304
S2 4261
Close was below the weekly pp!
For next week still in the trading range, uptrend still intact at 4430 with 4280 the next level! Uptrend seems to be targeting 4450 which is weekly R2 if the 83%(not my fig) chance of the Xmas rally begins! 2 day ftse chart in an uptrend off Thu low, brk of uptrend at 4335, continuation of trend targeting 4380 with a clear brk of Fri res at 4365 imho!
(Written Fri/All bets off:)
Cantors SL hitfor remainder 20% of ftse short, so only small pos thank god!
So the lucky longs close for a profit, short run for cover and the mugs chase, will be an interesting morning!
Druid2
- 15 Dec 2003 07:32
- 9 of 61
ThePlayboy
- 15 Dec 2003 07:40
- 10 of 61
Crocodile - 15 Dec 2003 07:43 - 11 of 61
Douggie - 15 Dec 2003 07:52 - 12 of 61
Druid2
- 15 Dec 2003 07:55
- 13 of 61
Melnibone - 15 Dec 2003 08:20 - 14 of 61
I'm talking about the US for end of year closing
and tax losses, where the US
markets go then the UK will follow.
When we are talking finance then I'm afraid that
the UK is just one of the States of the USA.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 15 Dec 2003 08:24 - 15 of 61
Who is going to buy at a premium for a short
lived sentiment bounce?
Volume doesn't seem to be overly high to me,
and we don't seem to want to go above 4400.
I still think that people are waiting to sell,
not buy.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 15 Dec 2003 08:30
- 16 of 61
little woman
- 15 Dec 2003 08:35
- 17 of 61
Melnibone - 15 Dec 2003 08:49 - 18 of 61
I hope I'm not coming across as a pessimist here,
I'm not trying to argue with you, just putting
my view across.:-)
I agree, it is irksome to just follow another country
like a little lapdog, but we must face facts.
Our GDP isn't in the same league as the USA.
Doesn't California on its own come somewhere near
our financial status? Don't quote me on it, but I
think that it is one of the world's biggest economies
in it's own right and as it is just one state then
where does the UK stand in relation to the USA as a whole?
We've got to remember that we're talking money, not
politics and national pride.
I agree that it is annoying, but we have to accept it
and make our financial decisions on that basis.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 15 Dec 2003 08:58
- 19 of 61
A lot of the people out there that had been predicting a fall in the market since August, seem to have recently changed their view and become more positive. I've decided I prefer the positive! (Life is too depressing otherwise)
I agree that we are talking money, but I think the Bulls are currently making more money than the Bears, and although the bears every so often make a inroad back, I don't think overall they are not suceeding.
Melnibone - 15 Dec 2003 09:09 - 20 of 61
Stay positive, life is far more important than boring
old money.
I bet LLOY is bringing a smile to your face this morning.:-))
Melnibone.
little woman
- 15 Dec 2003 09:26
- 21 of 61
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