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US Stocks had a wild session with an early fall then the DOW rallied over 70 before falling again to end up only 11 on the day. Amvescap awaiting data at 12:00 : It is due to unveil full-year figures but attention expected will focused on the US mutual funds scandal. The fund manager will reveal the damage done to its reputation from the US Invesco unit BOC Group beat forecasts with a 26 percent rise in first quarter pre-tax profit and said it was starting to see the benefit of improving global trading conditions. Profit rose to 116.7 million pounds from 92.3 million last year compared with forecasts around 109 million. Carpetright reported a strong rise in Christmas sales and said it was increasing profits on the year before. Like-for-like sales rose 4.6 percent in the 13 weeks to January 31, with gross margins level on the year. Chorion the owner of children's character Noddy, said it had rejected a proposed 43.5 million pounds approach by rival media company Entertainment Rights Henlys manufacturing said it expected annual earnings to be well below current market forecasts due to poor orders at its Blue Bird bus manufacturing division Chrysalis radio said its revenues for the five months to January 31 were up 19 percent with trading in line with its expectations and 90 percent of Feb revenues were already booked, DFS Furniture said it expected first-half pre-tax profit to fall from a year ago, as tough competition in the sector hits its earnings. The company added that the outlook for UK consumer spending appeared uncertain due to expected rises in interest rates and concerns about rising debt levels.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Amvescap (F), BOC (Q1), Carpetright (Trading) Capital Radio, Chrysalis, Imperial Tobacco (AGMs) Ex date of Wolseley ADR Stock Spilt, Terms are 3 shares for every 2 held	13:30 Car & truck sales, 5.8m, 9.10m prev. 15:00 Jan layoffs, 93.02 prev.	11:00 Dec PPI m/m, 0.1% prev. 11:00 Dec PPI y/y, 1.4% prev. 11:00 Jan unemployment, 8.8% prev.

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TUESDAY FTSE PP

R2 4431
R1 4406
PP 4387
S1 4362
S1 4342

Mondays close was below the pp, but gained 3.3 in the auction, 2 day chart targeting 4360 unless we get a breakout of the downtrend at 390 to target 4410 imho! watching close above 10525 for dow strength into tue!





Updated 2/2 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 2/3
UP Above 10,700
DN Below 10,375

Volatile Session
Dow trades back and forth throughout session, ends day flat.

From prior commentary, "...an upside break from the consolidation at 10,525 will make for another push higher within the wide, volatile range that has formed at the highs of the 60 Minute Chart..."
The Dow first traded lower within the consolidation this morning, but later reversed off the lows en route to an upside break from the pattern, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The upside break lead to a short rally, then reversed back down toward the day's lows, closing out a volatile session.

Looking at the Weekly Chart shows that the Dow continues to hold beneath major resistance at 10,700. The index continues to trade within a large cluster at the highs beneath resistance, which will likely resume until a clear path of direction is established. Look for the Dow to remain within the boundaries of 10,375 to 10,700 until a solid break occurs.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day right at the 10,500 level, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Use this level as a fulcrum for tomorrow's Open; trading Long above, and Short below.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we covered Shorts today at 10,530, giving us a 130 point gain for the trade. We then entered the market Long at 10,535, but stopped out of the trade at the entry, giving us a breakeven trade.

We are out of the market and will watch 10,700 up, and 10,375 down, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each traded higher before failing to the Close today. The NASDAQ continues to trade within its consolidation, which is now sloping, while the S&P remains within a wider range. Look for further range movement until a solid break occurs. *

Summary

The Dow traded higher and lower throughout the session, capping off a volatile day with just an 11 point gain. The index will likely continue trading sideways within a wide trading range that has formed from 10,375 to 10,700. A break from this range will likely lead to the next medium term move.

Morning all

Morning all.

Morning Crocodile!!

How r u?

morning all

lw read ur post last night, its ok i still love you:)

Not going to trade indices anymore. (And this time I'm going to stick to my decision!)

long sctn

Hi joe2506 :-)
Very well thanks, you?

Just a few extra's added to the header, pivot points etc.
D.

Morning all,

Made a mistake last night, I was working on my CMC connections
until 11pm. I have two types of coffee at home. During the
day I usually drink decaff gold. First thing in the morning I
like to have a cup or two of a brand called Rocket Fuel. It is
high caffeine and Guarana which really kicks you into overdrive.

Last night I forgot and had Rocket Fuel. 3am came and I was still
lying in bed with eyes as big as saucers and a brain tripping along
like a 4gig laptop!

At 7am this morning I looked like the guy in the BC cornflakes ad.
Trouble is, after the cornflakes, I still look like the guy in the
BC cornflakes ad!

little woman, don't give up on the indices. Try using them differently.
I find that I use them best as a straight short in a falling market or
a hedge against stock longs during high volatility.
During normal,(whatever that is), markets, I find that I get greater
returns from long blue chips that get hammered by market noise or
sentiment.

Down to you of course, not trying to advise, just saying what works
for me.

Rgds. Melnibone.

Melnibone, I was reviewing my dealing success (or not) and found that very few of my share deals lost money, (and those that did, the amounts were small) whereas the indices, I lost more than I won, and the losses were not small.

Subject: Stocks
Date: Tue 3rd Feb 2004 10:13:34
Country: United Kingdom
Industry:


AFX at a glance - Today's UK, European broker recommendations


LONDON (AFX) - UK and European brokers recommendations issued today, as collated by AFX News from a range of market sources:

DEUTSCHE BANK
UK Miners: Upgrade Buy from hold BHP Billiton, target 510 pence, ups estimates; Upgrade Buy from hold Vedanta Resources, ups target to 400 pence from 380; Upgrade Hold from sell Rio Tinto, ups target to 1,375 pence from 1,250; Reiterate Hold Xstrata, ups target to 700 pence from 575, raises estimates; Hold Anglo-American, ups target to 1,300 pence from 1,250 -- Italian Banks review: Upgrade Buy from hold San Paolo IMI, ups fair value to 12.2 eur from 10, raises estimates; Reiterate Buy Banca Intesa, ups fair value to 3.6 eur from 3.4; Buy Banco Pop. Verona Novara, ups fair value to 15.8 eur from 13.5, adjusts estimates; Sell Capitalia, ups target to 2.2 eur from 1.0, reduces estimates -- Initiate Hold Pfeiffer Vacumn, target 31.5 eur -- Reiterate Buy Elecoteq, ups target to 23 eur from 20, preview -- Hold M-Real, cuts target to 7 eur -- Hold Teleca, ups target to 40 skr from 32, preview

MERRILL LYNCH
European Life Insurance review: Downgrade Sell from neutral Royal & Sun Alliance, fair value 88 pence; Downgrade Sell from neutral Allianz, fair value 85 eur; Downgrade Sell from neutral Munich Re; Upgrade buy from neutral AMB Generali; Downgrade Sell from neutral RAS; Downgrade Sell from neutral Mediolanum, theoretical fair value 55 eur; Reinstate Neutral CIC; Reiterate Buy Hannover Re, ups target to 36 eur from 32; Buy Storebrand, ups target to 54.1 nkr from 45.1 -- Downgrade Sell from neutral Geberit, ups estimates

GOLDMAN SACHS
Downgrade In-line from outperform ASML -- Upgrade Outperform from in-line Infineon -- Initiate Underperform Schwarz Pharma

MORGAN STANLEY
Metals & Mining review: Upgrade Overweight from equal-weight BHP Billiton, ups target to 520 pence from 490; Antofagasta, ups target to 1,140 pence from 1,050 -- European Broadcasters: Downgrade Underweight from equal-weight TF1; Upgrade Equal-weight from underweight ProSieben Sat1, ups target to 17.5 eur from 4.5; Introduce Equal-weight Antenna 3, ups target to 40 skr from 30 -- Reiterate Overweight Mediaset, ups target to 11.0 eur from 10.2 -- Overweight BNL, ups target to 2.2 eur from 2.1

UBS
Upgrade Buy from neutral Imperial Tobacco, ups target to 1,280 pence from 1,240 -- Downgrade Neutral from buy PHS, target 101 pence, valuation call -- Downgrade Neutral from buy McCarthy & Stone, target 610 pence, valuation call -- Downgrade Reduce from neutral IHC Caland, cuts target to 35 eur from 46 -- Upgrade Neutral from reduce Zardoya Otis, target 15 eur call, valuation call -- Reiterate Buy RMC, ups target to 825 pence from 775 -- Neutral Rhodia, cuts target to 3.7 eur from 4.8 -- Neutral Galencia, ups target to 190 sfr from 175 -- Neutral Confinimmo, ups target to 106 eur from 100 -- Neutral Chloride, ups target to 60 pence from 46

JP MORGAN
Upgrade Overweight from neutral BG Group, ups fair value to 320 pence from 276 -- European Advertising Agencies: Initiate Overweight Publicis, fair value 32 eur; Initiate Underweight Havas, fair value 5.25 eur -- Reiterate Overweight AGF, ups fair value and EPS estimates by 5 pct

DRESDNER KLEINWORT
Upgrade Add from hold Deutsche Boerse, TGT 53.6 eur

LEHMAN
Initiate Underweight Electrolux, target 165 skr -- Reiterate Underweight London Stock Exchange, ups target to 370 pence from 360

WESTLB
Downgrade Underperform from neutral DaimlerChrysler, target 35 eur -- Downgrade Neutral from outperform Grenke Leasing, target 23 eur -- Reiterate Buy Indus, ups target to 31 eur from 28 -- Underperform IKB, ups target to 17.5 eur from 14.0 -- Neutral Serono, ups target to 950 sfr from 850 -- Outperform OM Gruppen, cuts target to 122 skr from 128

PANMURE
Downgrade hold from buy XP Power, target 300 pence

SOCIETE GENERALE
Downgrade Hold from buy BBVA, fair value 10.9 eur

BRIDGEWELL SECURITIES
Downgrade Neutral from core holding Cosalt

ARBUTHNOT
Downgrade Sell from hold Dowding & Mills
jmh/slm/

Closed SCTN 5.25+

Made my target for today. Going to do some work for a change!

Afternnon all,

Took my stock longs profits just prior to the US open.

Opened the positions when the FTSE hit 4360 and came back again.
Thanks for that Ftse analysis TP, it worked a treat. :-)

Watch where the US is going now and see where it leads the Ftse.

Melnibone.

mel -glad it worked for you, i was within 5 of the high/low yest and close to the low today, watch 60 futs 83 cash atm for an up brk out of this downtrend imho

Melinbone
Ahh you made me laugh!! So is there hope for the FTSE this PM?
Looked better than lunchtime when I last looked...

ITL - 1st quarter results on the 12th Feb - 2 weeks early
:-)

FTSE closed gap open lower.

Any sellers that were waiting are now in play.
Where's the US going to go though?

Melnibone.

mel cut my long whilst dow ponders 500 for direction fulcrum level, potential brkout on ftse but dow weakness=failure

Agree TP.

Ftse is also at the top of the 3 day downtrend channel.

Melnibone.