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More cases of 'Bird Flu' drive Hong Kong stocks lower: Analysts predicting the FTSE 100 will continue to fall from January highs as investors await a likely interest rate hike and eye results from Shell.

BAA airports operator posted a one percent rise in operating profit to 500 million pounds for the nine months compared to analysts expecting 492 million. Sales rose by 3.5 percent to 1.54 billion pounds and they said airlines confidence and a solid economy would underpin strong passenger growth.  December traffic hit a record.

Securicor said it was in talks over a nil-premium merger with Danish rival Group 4. The merged business would be listed in both London and Copenhagen.

Filtronic maker of wireless telecoms components reported first-half profits of 2.2 million pounds well above market forecasts of 0.8 million.Rio Tinto the world's second largest miner, said its second-half profit fell 10.5 percent as strong China demand was offset by weak coal earnings and a rising Australian dollar. Profit fell to $741 million from $828 million a year earlier compared with an average analyst forecast, excluding a gain from the sale of its 50 percent interest in Indonesia's Kaltim Prima Coal.

 BAA (Q3, 9M) 478-507m exp. Filtronic (H1), Rio Tinto (F) Net $1.3-1.5bn exp.

Ex date of Granada and Carlton merger to form ITV, Bookham takes Carlton Comms place within the FTSE Mid 250

09:30 Jan manufacturing PMI, 56.0 prev.

13:30 Dec consumption NA, 0.5% exp. 13:30 Dec consumption real, 0.5% prev. 13:30 Dec personal income, 0.1% exp. 15:00 Dec construction spending, 0.6% exp. 15:00 Jan ISM manufacturing, 64.3 exp.

09:00 Jan manufacturing PMI, 52.9 exp.

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

 BAA (Q3, 9M) 478-507m exp. Filtronic (H1), Rio Tinto (F) Net $1.3-1.5bn exp.

Ex date of Granada and Carlton merger to form ITV, Bookham takes Carlton Comms place within the FTSE Mid 250

09:30 Jan manufacturing PMI, 56.0 prev.

13:30 Dec consumption NA, 0.5% exp. 13:30 Dec consumption real, 0.5% prev. 13:30 Dec personal income, 0.1% exp. 15:00 Dec construction spending, 0.6% exp. 15:00 Jan ISM manufacturing, 64.3 exp.

09:00 Jan manufacturing PMI, 52.9 exp.

Amvescap (F), BOC (Q1), Carpetright (Trading) Capital Radio, Chrysalis, Imperial Tobacco (AGMs) Ex date of Wolseley ADR Stock Spilt, Terms are 3 shares for every 2 held

13:30 Car & truck sales, 5.8m, 9.10m prev. 15:00 Jan layoffs, 93.02 prev.

11:00 Dec PPI m/m, 0.1% prev. 11:00 Dec PPI y/y, 1.4% prev. 11:00 Jan unemployment, 8.8% prev.

British Airways (Traffic) Mm02 (Q3 KPIs), Scottish Power (Q3)

09:30 Jan services PMI, 58.5 prev.

International Paper (Q4), Boston Scientific (Q4),Cisco (Q2), Sprint (Q4), Colgate-Palmolive (Q4), Tyco (Q1), Chubb (Q4), Mattell (Q4), Anheuser Busch (Q4), Allstate (Q4), Pixar (Q4),Northrup Grumman (Q4)

15:00 Dec durable goods R

15:00 Dec factory orders, 1.3% exp. 15:00 Jan non manufacturing ISM, 59.8 exp.

DaimlerChrysler (F), France Telecom (Turnover)

Henkel (F), AXA (Turnover), Nexans (F)

Wella (EGM) Ixos Software (Q2), Infogrammes (9M)

09:00 Jan services PMI, 57.0 exp.

11:00 Jan flash HICP y/y, 2.05% exp.

Ex Dividend: Carpetright Plc (17), Computerland Plc (1.35), Coral Products Plc (1.05), DS Smith PLC (2.8), Electra Kingsway VCT PLC (0.9), First Technology Plc (3.5), Fletcher King Plc (0.3), Fountains plc (1.92), Halladale Group Plc (0.7), Hardys & Hansons Plc (11.5), IFX Group PLC (0.25), Latchways Plc (3.18), NHP Plc (2.25), Smith WH Plc (0.742868), Somerfield Plc (0.6), SSL International Plc (3.9), Victrex Plc (5.3), Warner Estate Holdings Plc (8.25), Widney Plc (0.5), Wyndeham Press Group Plc (1.5)

GWR (Q4), ICI (F) PBT 282-342m exp. Shell (Q4) Adj net $1.9bn exp. Signet (Q4), Smith & Nephew (F), Lonmin (AGM)

12:00 BOE rate announcement, 4% exp.

13:30 Weekly Jobless Claims 13:30 Q4 labour costs, 0.3% exp.

11:00 Nov retail sales m/m, y/y, 0.5%, 0.0% prev.

12:45 ECB rate announcement, 2.0% prev.

13:30 Q4 Productivity, 2.6% exp. 13:30 ECB press conference

EasyJet (Traffic) Expected ex date of offer by Kaytern Plc for Jarvis Hotels

Cigna Corp (Q4), Electronic Data Systems (Q4), Cooper Tire & Rubber (Q4), AutoNation (Q4), PepsiCo (Q4)

13:30 Jan average earnings, 0.2% exp. 13:30 Jan average working week, 33.7 hrs prev. 13:30 Jan Non farm payrolls, 150k exp. 13:30 Jan unemployment, 5.7% exp.

Sagem (F), Deutsche Bank (F), EPCOS (Q1), Schering (F), BNP (F), Business Objects (F), Dassault Systems (F), Alcatel (F), Aventis (F),

Pernod (Turnover), Lagardere (Turnover) Vinci (Turnover), Clarins (Turnover), AGF (Turnover)

Pace Micro Technology (I) Photo-Me International (I)

Albemarle & Bond (I), Diagonal Group (F), Royalblue (F)

(09:30) Dec Industrial Production (09:30) Dec house price survey (09:30) Jan PPI

Inter Link Foods (I), Galen Holdings (I) Alphameric (F), Bookham Technology (F) BP (F), Brandon Hire (F), Bwd Secs. (F), Quantica (F)

(09:30) UK Dec Trade

Dixons (I), London Scottish Bank (F), Antisoma (I), BSkyB (I) Electric Word (F), Liberty International (F)

(10:30) BoE Quarterly Inflation Report (09:30) Jan/Dec Labour Market Report

Ex Dividend:

HMV (I), Alumasc Group (I), Rolls-Royce (F) Barclays (F), London Bridge Software (F)

(09:30) UK Q4 housebuilding data

Vebnet (Holdings) (I)

An interesting week ahead with four FTSE 100 companies reporting including Shell, BA, ICI and Smith & NephewMondayBAA is set to report a slight decline in pre-tax profits to 440m for the three months to 31 December. Despite higher passenger numbers through its seven UK terminals, including a 6.2% increase last month, have its results are expected to reflect higher staff and maintenance costs. Rio Tinto, the surge in commodity and base metal prices should have boosted profits during the second half of 2003 but analysts expect the mining group to post a 12% decline in full-year profits to 1.17bn. This is due to the strength of the Australian dollar where the company generates around 60% of its earnings and 45% of its operating costsTuesday

Amvescap is due to unveil full-year figures but attention expected will focused on the US mutual funds scandal. The fund manager will reveal the damage done to its reputation from the US Invesco unit Wednesday

Scottish Power is expected to cut quarterly dividend payments by 34% when it reports on trading during the last three months matching similar reductions in the two previous quarters. Operating profits are forecast to show a 2.2% decline to 310m following lower generation and supply profits due to higher gas costs and flat profits from its Power Systems and Pacificorp arms

mmO2 with its third-quarter subscriber numbers Thursday

ICI Investors will be hoping for good news form the Quest flavours and fragrance division of ICI when they release final results.  Quest was one of the causes of last March's profits warning by ICI. If they fail to show any improvements the city may well give the company a hard time. Analysts are expecting the group to report that it has had a strong end to the year and expects them to turn in profits of 326m, against 400m previously. Shell is expected to report a 3% drop in production growth when it posts full-year and fourth-quarter results. The company is predicted to report full-year and fourth-quarter profits of $2.83bn, against $2.78bn but attention will be on news of the recent reclassification of 20% of its reserves base.

UK Interest rate rise on the cards with the Bank of England's interest rates decision out on Thursday. Smith & Nephew medical devices is likely to please investors by reporting profits up to 234m against 210m previously but the weakness of the US dollar is believed likely to have had a 20m negative impact on the group.

Friday

EasyJet reports January traffic figures on Friday and after Ryam Airs warning investors will take some convincing that the growth story can be maintained. RYA's shares fell 30% in a day after it said yield have come under pressure as a result of ruthless pricing competition.

Thoughts

It was good to meet so many of you at the London traders meeting last week and a big disappointment that the weather stopped nearly 100 people from attending.

For the last 3 weeks I have been following Intraday Day charting to show how it gives me guidance on the market direction for the day ahead. Certainly the FTSE has been very well behaved and remained in a very clear & well defined 45 point wide downtrend. To some extent this is a shame as I wanted to highlight how trading systems switch from 1 support to the next and how easy it is to make use of that knowledge.

Downtrend:  In a downtrend as in the chart any fall below the support is a good BUY point for the FTSE or tracker stocks. This works really well shortly after market open when the futures predict a sharp fall on the FTSE and it then predicts a reversal and how strong it will be!

More caution has to be used when the index breaks through the resistance line as it did last Wednesday when it could possibly have been the start of a new uptrend. Then SELLS work but are more risky especially when they have previously broken the resistance 4 times before.

Uptrend: It is the opposite with an uptrend when I am happy to SHORT the market when the FTSE opens the day well above the resistance line. But I am equally cautious when it fall through support as again it could signal a break in the trend.

The 'blobs' and 'lines' do make it easy to draw this type of trend lines on Intraday charts and often they will not correspond to the trend lines drawn by charting packages. I find they highlight the buy/sell points used by computer trading systems with far more accuracy. These trading systems often reverse the market at exactly the same point where traders become confident in the market direction. This can lead to the Paranoia that the city is waiting to personally catch them out!

Looking towards next week it looks like the FTSE should open lower than the current support so I will be looking for a rise on the market Monday or Tuesday. However I am still looking for further falls for the week ahead.

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead!  David  David@SnappyTrader.com  www.SnappyTrader.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. None of this report should be construed as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any security, investment or derivative. Please do your own research.

Headlines Sunday 1st February

Household borrowing slumped last month in the first sign that higher interest rates have dampened consumers' appetite for debt. THE US economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2003 to just half the growth rate of the previous three months, underlining the still-fragile nature of the global recovery.

UK Interest rate rise on the cards with the Bank of England's interest rates decision out on Thursday.

HBOS yesterday denied it was going on the acquisition trail Down Under as it announced plans to integrate its Australian operations

British Airways was locked in talks with airport operator BAA yesterday regarding possible compensation for the disruption caused by this week's snow.

Legal & General, Norwich Union, Zurich Life and HBoS, owner of Clerical Medical have been warned to speed up their handling of mortgage endowment* mis-selling* complaints or face massive fines from the FSA

Kerry Group hit by ban on Thai chicken imports National Grid Transco Directors' Deals: Grid boss sees profits in the pipeline Agenda: William Lewis: Why Group 4 should not let Securicor escape Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Ffyffes? Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Marshalls? And Finally ... Brothers-in-law go for pot luck with Royal Doulton

Cadbury finished eclair

NSB retail thrills and spills Why Ferguson should give in gracefully to the galloping Irish Bodyguards for Magnier family as Man Utd fans are blamed for threats

National Grid Transco Parker quits race for BAE chair

OBSERVER Shell investors will spare Watts if they get reforms Carlton, Granada Better news will make a better ITV Eddington: BA will bounce back in 2004 Ritblat junior to succeed father at British Land Invensys in 500m rights issue this week Amvescap News in brief

Vodafone Be bold in the US, Mr Sarin BA's Rod is reborn as big wheel in City

Watkins next in firing line at Manchester Utd Vodafone plots $30bn bid for US mobile firm WH Smith Is it a Swann song for fat cats?

MAIL ON SUNDAY War erupts at Manchester Utd, Furious Ferguson calls in police Rate rise slashes borrowing, Smallest increase for three years Analysts see good reception for ITV

US Stocks fall as growth rate slows Allen heralds ITV channel 3, Aiming for older, affluent audience

Bookham Technology, set to replace Carlton in the FTSE 250, added 18 1/2p to 173 1/2p with volume running at 3.5m as tracker funds began to buy.

INDEPENDENT  HSBC The Week Ahead: French drug battle fixates on figures BAA The Week Ahead: French drug battle fixates on figures

Granada / Carlton The new ITV wakes up to reality  

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Manchester United Horse trader cracks the whip Shell Oil reserves issue could mean shell shock for investors Scottish & Newcastle to cut 500 jobs  

M&S pressed to appoint new clothing head Aviva plans to sell former GA base in 300m strategy

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - L&G (LGEN), 4Imprint (FOUR), Peter Hambro (POG), Computerland (CPU) and Metnor (MTG).Sell - Daily Mail & General (DMGO).Tip Updates: Clarkson (CKN) (fairly priced), British Land (BLND) (good value), Kewill (KWL) (good value), Mears (MER) (buy), Tertiary Minerals (TYM) (buy).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week:  Buy - Peterhouse (PHS), NSB Retail (NSB) and Trans Siberian Gold (TSG).Plays Updates: Hold - Ryanair (RYA), Sell - Centurion Electronics (CUC).The Analysis Section: Forget the house: put your money in the builder.

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com