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Traders Thread - Friday 20th February (AL.)     

Crocodile - 19 Feb 2004 23:02

UK PreMarket Futures FTSE -25 DAX -30 DOW +2 S&P -0.3 Nasdaq +1.5

1 Day

2 Day

 5 Day

UK News

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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures Translate
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1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei -33   Hang Seng -25   Asia News

DAX CAC  Euro News
News: Sorry Your browser is not java capable weather.gif

U.S. stocks closed lower with most of the declines made in the last half hour of trading with the Nasdaq being hardest hit

Alliance & Leicester reported profit up 12 percent to 525 million pounds from 468.3 million a year earlier slightly above market expectations mainly due to mortgage lending. It also announced that it would buy back shares this year.

De Vere Group hotelier said it saw its overall trading environment as variable, with resilience in the leisure break market but a less consistent recovery in business conference demand. Like for like revenues rose 1.8 percent in the first 19 weeks of its financial year.

Go-Ahead transport group posted a 43-percent jump in half-year profits to 47 million up from 33 million and at the top end of estimates, boosted by its rail and bus units.

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT

Go-Ahead Group (F), Alliance & Leicester (F), ASOSDe Vere Group (AGM), Bankers Investment Trust (AGM)

1.30pm  Core CPI 1.30pm  CPI

Deutsche Boerse (F)

L'Oreal (F)

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

Data

Calendar

US Zone

HTML Edit

Currency Calc

ThePlayboy - 20 Feb 2004 07:14 - 2 of 58

Updated 2/19 for Friday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 2/20
UP Above 10,750
DN Below 10,600

Resistance at 10,750
Dow holds beneath 10,750, pushes lower to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...The index continues to hold beneath key resistance, which hints at weakness in the near term..."
The Dow traded higher to the clear and solid 10,750 resistance level this morning, but was not able to effectively break through. Instead, the index held beneath resistance and eventually got a sharp reversal to the downside, leading to a big sell-off to the Close, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.

As we mentioned before, the Dow will likely remain weak beneath this key resistance level in the medium term. A downside push through 10,600 will lead to an even steeper decline toward 10,500.

Look for the index to continue trading within the 10,600 to 10,750 levels. Should the index break through resistance at 10,750, further upside is to be expected. Until then, however, further weakness will abound.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow sold off sharply late in the session today, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. A break below 10,650 will extend the downmove into tomorrow's Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we barely triggered Longs today at 10,750, and were subsequently stopped out. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. Watch 10,600 down, and 10,750 up, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each began the session sharply higher today, but a 'pop and drop' session soon followed. Look for signs of a continuation tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow reversed sharply off resistance today, completing a round trip session after the morning's opening burst. Look for the index to remain weak below key resistance at 10,750. A break below 10,600 will increase weakness.

ThePlayboy - 20 Feb 2004 07:14 - 3 of 58

DOW-15.gif

ThePlayboy - 20 Feb 2004 07:15 - 4 of 58

draw?startDate=19%2F12%2F03&period=2M&pl

Look a t last ops exp on Jan 16th bullish week than gradual fall away, not guaranteed but something to be aware of, ftse well overbought now!

ThePlayboy - 20 Feb 2004 07:16 - 5 of 58

FRI FTSE PP

R2 4564
R1 4540
PP 4491
S1 4467
S2 4419

Ftse closed above r3 on thu, only lost.3 in auction so no clues! 2 days ftse chart targeting 4540, Ops exp however Fri so once out the way may see some weakness creep in, watch 4495 for a trendchange imho!

hijeff - 20 Feb 2004 07:19 - 6 of 58

AL figs show double digit gains,should be good news for the shares.

Crocodile - 20 Feb 2004 07:39 - 7 of 58

Morning all

ftse.gif

Douggie - 20 Feb 2004 07:51 - 8 of 58

mornin all

little woman - 20 Feb 2004 08:57 - 9 of 58

Morning all,

I seem to have a mixture of blues & reds. I'm wondering if I should have stuck it out in GSK, or is this just a tempory recovery?

Melnibone - 20 Feb 2004 09:27 - 10 of 58

Morning all,

Will probably just be an observer today.

We're too near a triple top in the FTSE with too much
profit left for folk to take for me to be tempted into
buying anything.

US bounced back off a double top yesterday and closed the
gap open it left on Tuesday. So US could possibly rise again
today which would make the FTSE, if it followed it, even
more overbought IMHO.

Some of the stocks I'm bearish on are bouncing which may mean
that Bears are taking profit prior to going flat for the weekend,
so I don't fancy any shorts there just yet either.

So, all in all, staying flat with maybe the odd scalp if the
opportunity presents itself.

Mrs. Melnibone is off work today, so no doubt a delightful day
of shopping beckons. :-(

Melnibone.

little woman - 20 Feb 2004 09:52 - 11 of 58

I've just filled an application to open an account with finspreads. After the problems I had with D4F, I'm wondering if I'm making a mistake? Anyone got any opinions?

Melnibone - 20 Feb 2004 10:00 - 12 of 58

Have never used finspreads, little woman, but I believe
snoball has some experience with them.

As well as my D4F account I've opened a Capital Spreads
account as a back up/alternative. I'll be using them to
play the US in 's in the evening and keep using D4F CFD's for
my FTSE share plays and UKX index trades.

Haven't used them for real yet, I'm waiting for the S@P to top
out and then play the short side for a retracement.
But the simulator seems very user friendly.

Melnibone.

little woman - 20 Feb 2004 10:47 - 13 of 58

Thanks Melnibone.

FTSE100 doing well again. Next week is going to interesting - is it going to continue up, or is there going to lots of profit taking and drop!

seawatcher - 20 Feb 2004 12:15 - 14 of 58

little woman,Melnibone

I'm new on the block. Been reading your posts for a week or so. Am experienced with share and traded option trading but want to trade shorts more easily. At present I am having a 21 day trial of the ETRADE CFD platform which seems good. Watched relationships between CFD and actual prices for a few days and today have made several hundred imaginary pounds with no more than 5000 margin trading Aviva Longs. Next I will try a spread bet platform ( did try to set up with D4F but web site went down and that put me off).Do you have any problems Melnibone?

Can either of you experienced CFD and Spread Bet experts advise which is best of these to go short with.
Really appreciate any suggestions and will post again regarding ETRADE platform
sw

little woman - 20 Feb 2004 12:42 - 15 of 58

sw - I had problems with D4F, - the biggest problem was they closed all my positions without telling me.

I'm off now until Sunday afternoon - so will take a look at this thread then, if anyone wants to post any comments

Melnibone - 20 Feb 2004 14:52 - 16 of 58

Hi seawatcher,

I'm not a spreadbet specialist, I'm just venturing into
that particular field as we speak.

I've been trading CFD's for over a year year now with CMC(D4F).
I trade them just as I would shares, but with the ability to
go short or hedge using the FTSE100(UKX).

A lot of people seem to have had problems with CMC, but I never
really have. I don't margin up excessively and it would have to
be a really vicious false spike to take me out of a position
with a margin call. Maybe that's why, I don't really know.

You do get requotes, but I've had them in my favour as well as
against me. FTSE 100 share spreads are similar to what you see
on the Mam stockwatch, but they can and do widen when things
get volatile. As I mainly swing trade stocks this isn't really
a problem to me. I just wait until things settle down and usually
get what I want during the day's trading range.

The platform does freeze sometimes, but from what I read on other
sites this seems to be pretty much endemic to other providers as well.
Especially when a big move happens and more and more people try
to trade at the same time in a fast moving market.
Some people say it's to stop people making money on a big move, but
I'm not so sure myself, the computer would have to be programmed
to selectively freeze out traders who would cost the company money
and keep live those who would make the company money. There will always
be some folk short and some folk long.
Possible I suppose, Croc could answer that better than me.
I would tend to think that it was an overloaded system that couldn't
cope with the demand.

Try a few more demo platforms and see what you think for yourself.
Compare spreads and up front margin, initial account deposit etc..

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 20 Feb 2004 15:17 - 17 of 58

Having posted all that, I've got 3% profit to take on a share
and I can't log in on MarketMaker or the web-lite version to take it.

Sod's law. Lol.

Melnibone.

stockbunny - 20 Feb 2004 15:23 - 18 of 58

Afternoon people - see BP are on a share buy back, good
for the price for now anyway!
So no shopping after all Melnibone??
((Wouldn't blame you it is absolutely freezing out there
when the wind blows!!!))

Melnibone - 20 Feb 2004 15:52 - 19 of 58

Done the shopping this morning, stockbunny.
M@S and House of Fraser now have more of my money
than I would like them to have. :-(

Finally logged in on CMC and got my shares sold.
Logged in to Capital Spreads and it looks like they
are having problems as well.
FTSE Daily Cash is showing 4535 and they are accepting
Telephone orders only on the FTSE. Little odd that.

I bet there's a lot of frustrated Bears about.

Melnibone.

seawatcher - 20 Feb 2004 15:53 - 20 of 58

Melnibone,
Thankyou very much for sparing me so much of your time on this interesting day and for the helpful answer.
sw

Melnibone - 20 Feb 2004 16:24 - 21 of 58

Capital Spreads seem to have got their FTSE feed sorted out.
Quote is back in synch with the cash market and internet
orders are back on the menu.

Melnibone.
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