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US  indexes rally for second session as investors go bargain hunting Cobham topped forecasts with a 19.5 percent profit rise rise to 137.8 million above forecast and said it expected earnings growth to continue this year. Premier Oil reported 2003 net profit up 80 percent at 40.8 million pounds thanks to record production Derwent Valley posted a 6.9 percent fall in annual profits to 16.2 million pounds, but said it was confident of a return to growth in its key West End market. William Morrison reported an inline rise in annual profits to 319.9 million pounds while current sales remain robust, up 9.7 percent in the six weeks to March 14. Premier Farnell electronics distributor said US markets were improving but Europe remained as it posted lower annual profits which down 9% to 54.6 million pounds as expected. Trafficmaster returned to annual profit with a 0.55 million gain from a 63.3 million pound loss the previous year and said the new financial year had got off to a strong start. De La Rue printer of banknotes, said its full-year results would be just ahead of expectations thanks to increased volumes relating to the Iraq banknote contract Geest reported a one percent rise in annual profits to 41.4 million pounds while adding it intends to buy back up to 10 percent of its shares over the next twelve months.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
FW Thorpe (I),Manganese Bronze (I),Bisichi Mining (F), Cobham (F), Corus Group (F), Derwent Valley (F), Geest (F), House of Fraser (F), IP2IPO Group (F), Premier Farnell (F), Trafficmaster (F), William Morrison (F),Albion (AGM), Asset Man It (AGM), Ingenta (AGM),Feb BBA Net STG Lending Data (09:30) Feb Capital Issuance (09:30) Feb CML Mortgage Lending Data (09:30) Feb M4/M4 Lending (09:30) Feb PSNCR (09:30) Feb Retail Sales (09:30)	Adobe Systems, Nike Inc Solectron Corporation, Tektronix Inc Morgan Stanley 13:30 Initial Claims 15:00 Leading Indicators 17:00 Philadelphia Fed	Allianz AG, Altana AG Bayer AG, Celesio AG Guyenne et Gascogne SA Pernod-Ricard SA, Generale de Sante

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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THU FTSE PP

R2 4494
R1 4476
PP 4444
S1 4425
S2 4394

Ftse close above r1 on Wed but lost 4.9pts in the auction! All down to the dow to brk above 300/320 for cont strength! Clear res on ftse at 4470, weakness through 4440!imho, ops exp on FRI!

Updated 3/17 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 3/18
UP Above 10,325
DN Below 10,250

Rally
Dow opens the day strong and continues higher to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow has formed a nice range at the lows seen in the 15 minute chart...an upside break through the upper boundary at 10,250 will spur an upside push. However, the Dow must hold above this level if further strength is to be seen..."
The Dow pushed sharply higher at the Open and never looked back, as the index continued steadily higher to the Close, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index ended the day near the session highs and closed the session higher by 116 points.

Look for the Dow to hold at the highs tomorrow, forming a continuation pattern, which would indicate continued strength in the near term. An upside push through 10,325 will indicate further strength, while a break below 10,250 could spark another wave lower within the current overall downtrend.

Looking at the 60 Minute Chart shows that the Dow may be forming a wide trading range at the lows from 10,100 to 10,325. We could see further sideways movement within this range before a solid move in either direction is seen.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of today's upmove, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. A downside break of the line at 10,300 will likely spark weakness at the Open tomorrow.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Long at 10,259 and are still in the trade. We will hold stops at the entry to allow room to run to the upside tomorrow. We will stay Long above 10,325, and will look for Shorts below 10,250, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each popped and followed through to the upside today, as each ended the day near the session highs. Look for the formation of a continuation pattern tomorrow, which will indicate continued strength. *

Summary

The Dow got the upside break through 10,250 today, which fueled a solid continuation to the upside to the tune of a 116 point gain. We want to see if the index can hold on to today's gains tomorrow. A continuation pattern would be ideal, especially after such a big move. Stay Long above 10,325, and Short below 10,250.

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=LFTH04&o=&a=V%3A60&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=

link to above chart is a 60min futs chart, tgt of 70, if surpassed gap closure of 500/510, dow strength permitting imho of course!

mornin all

Morning all, from a sunny France. Storms expected!

Morning all

Not staying long as I have committee meetings this morning.

Croc - France again? You must go several times a year?

Morning all,

Can't find any compelling reasons to buy or sell anything
at the moment.
Maybe the market feels the same and we are just going to
establish a sideways trading range until we get a catalyst
to break one way or the other.

Back to trading simple support and resistance and not trying
to guess a trend seems a good present strategy IMHO.
TP has already quoted the levels I'm looking at, so nothing
to add there.

Claws joining the Bull Horns in the loft for the time being.
Dig 'em back out when the market says so. :-)

Melnibone.

GSK back on its slide down again (1067p current). Currently still short term trading but will look for a LTBH at 1050p and will add if it continues down to 1000p. Mel - are you still watchong/trading this - any thoughts?

Good to see SKP is still holding despite the lack of news - looks like we are going to have to wait till the results for any contract announcements now (to offset the bad profit or should I say losses)

I need to get a move on a go - but........

I want to get back into GSK, but waiting for the market to settle as think this share has further to fall.

Still covering GSK.
1050 entry point should give limited downside. I see support
coming in between 1000 and 1020 if 1050 breaks.

Your strategy of scaling into positions around those levels seems
OK to me. It's still rising less than the market on up days
and dropping more/similar on down days at the moment so I wouldn't
go in too heavily margined just yet, but there's nothing wrong
with a small position with correspondingly wider stops, IMHO, as
you build your position. Just need to watch your money management.

Melnibone.

Ref SKP,

Not sure if you use real shares or CFD's.

One point to consider here is if it gets such a caning that
drops it out of the FTSE 350. If you trade CMC CFD's and
this happens, then you will be forced to close your position
at a loss as CMC will no longer make a market in it.
PON and Bookham holders have just found that out.

Not saying this will happen, but be aware of it if they
disappoint and are forced to raise capital or have a rights
issue.

Melnibone.

Mel

Thanks for your comments. On GSK I am going to try and be disciplined and keep as a LTBH this time rather than selling the rise and shorting back down as I have done the last few times.

As for SKP, this is real shares in my ISA that have been tucked away for a while so the CFD issue does not affect me but thanks for the warning. I am also looking into the possibility of hedging the stock just prior to results day with an option, just in case the news is as bad as it could potentially be (trying to minimise the results day gamble - as this is what this is turning into)

750 more troops going to Kosovo - I'm currious to know where they are going to find them from! They are struggling to provide sufficent troops for the existing committments without additional ones!

SHEL is heading south

To be 20% wrong is very embarrassing. To be more than 20% wrong, wrong a second time, I think is looking pretty careless

BBC Business Editor Jeff Randall

Comment about SHELL

Will everyone who reads this post:
1. Have a go at this:

Left brain, right brain.

While sitting at your desk, lift your right foot off the
floor and make clockwise circles. Now, while doing this,
draw the number "6" in the air with your right hand. Your
foot will change direction and there's nothing you can do
about it!

Then 2:

Post on this thread the results! (let see how many people will post!)

1st idiot posting, yes it does change direction but not if you start the '6' from the middle i.e. in clockwise direction. See you in the Tea Rooms we should be able to get a sedative in there.

At least you posted - its been very quiet in here this afternoon - 4 minutes to close and will the FTSE break 4400?