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Traders Thread Monday 9th August 2004 (CROC)
Martini
- 08 Aug 2004 12:54
Martini
- 08 Aug 2004 12:54
- 2 of 30
Martini
- 08 Aug 2004 12:54
- 3 of 30
|
One week into my new job, there has been little
chance to look ahead. In fact, in trading terms,
this has been my quietest week
for a very long time.
However, the Tupperware Tycoon
made me feel so guilty that I was muscling in on
the Traders Thread that I agreed
to put a few ideas together.Here we go.
In recent months, I have concentrated a lot of
focus on companies coming up to reporting
results. This throws up many opportunities
for gain that would not otherwise emerge. The
strategy has been quite successful for me.
In this exercise I have found that such basics as
fundamentals can largely be discounted and, apart
from using them for broad guidelines and to check
volumes, charts are also of only limited value.
For me, volume spikes are the key.
Having said that, looking at (say) a three
year chart can often highlight patterns
that form in the days/weeks approaching (and
immediately following) results announcements. Try
it with a few of your own favourite
stocks and see if there is any definite pattern
that you might be able to take advantage
of.
One thing that has changed dramatically over
recent years is that one must now investigate
these phenomena well in advance. In the
old days it was necessary only to
know a day or two in advance that company results
were imminent and you could take up a position.
These days, thanks to people like MoneyAM,
advance news is much more freely available and is
accessible to all, not just the professionals.
This means that three or four weeks
advanced research is now required if you are to
benefit from pre-results activity and beat the rush.August tends to be a very thin
month for reporting once the banks, etc., have
published. Because of the holidays, it is also
one of the quietest months in total volume terms
so that any anomalies are exaggerated and easier
to spot.
These are just a few stocks that I am currently
monitoring: -Persimmon (PSN)
Martini
- 08 Aug 2004 12:54
- 4 of 30
|
||||||||
| SUNDAY TIMES - HBOS expected to launch its bid for Abbey National next month, with Lloyds TSB, Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC considering rival offers if it does. - Vert-Eco, a waste group backed by John Gunn, Nick Leslau and Nigel Wray, plans 3 million AIM flotation this month. - Tracker has been put up for sale by its majority shareholder, Apax. - Barney's, the sex-and-the-City store. is up for sale. - Nexen, of Canada, has appointed Bank of America to investigate opportunities for the business to expand into the British North Sea - Time called on retail dynasty as Courts heads for break-upInside the City: - Lastminute.com: it's hard to see upside for the ordinary punter. Citywire Market Mole: - UK Select Mid Cap Fund controls 0.25% of Britannic.Agenda: - Santander chief checks in ready for battle - Berkeley Group's bankerOther comment: - Interview James Murdoch, chief executive of BSkyB - Berkeley Group chief Tony Pidgeley tells investors he will quit if they block a bonus package for directors - Stagnant stock markets kill off the day traders - Hedge funds: now it's shark eat shark.Special Report: - Stagnant stock markets kill off the day traders | ||||||||
| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH- Banco Santander plans to launch a price war if it succeeds with its 8.2 billion takeover bid for Abbey National - Malcolm Glazer this week will attempt to buy the 28.9% stake in Manchester United owned by John Magnier and JP McManus - Hewlett-Packard in talks to buy Synstar for about 160 million as part of a plan to expand its European operations - Ubisoft of France emerges as frontrunner to acquire Eidos in 215 million deal - WPP Group is in advanced negotiations with Video International of Russia in a bid to create Russia's biggest advertising agency business - Pierre-Yves Gerbau has bought part of Brighton Marina for 65 million - Petrel Resources is set to become one of the first western companies to win major contracts to restart one of Iraq's oilfields - William Morrison is planning to shut some of the 52 stores that it was required to sell as part of the 3 billion takeover - The future of Eural Trans Gas, chaired by Cedric Brown, is in doubt following the loss of a Gazprom contractEquity View: - Buy AstraZeneca at 23.86 - Standard Chartered at 928p - Moss Bros at 86.5p - Kewill Systems at 54p - Hardman Resources at 89.5p - National Express at 649.5p (Look Who's Trading) - Sell Lastminute.com at 98.5p.Taking Stock with Edmond Jackson: - How to profit from spotting a recovery play (Morgan Crucible, Planestation, Advanced Technology)Business Comment: - Next: don't bet the business Wolfson - BSkyB is a cash-spewing quasi-monopoly in a growing marketOther comment: - British Energy rebels gun for Adrian Montague - BSkyB to sue EDS for 'material damages' in call centre dispute - Interview James Murdoch, chief executive BSkyB - Prudential's five bloomers - Profile Sir Anthony O'Reilly | ||||||||
| The Deddington News Letter - Non Farm Payroll numbers shock local economy. - Unemployment leapt in August as Financial Services jobs are sourced to third world countries. - Parish Chairman says, This is a nasty shock to the local economy and we will be writing a strongly worded memo to the District Council requesting Central help in regeneration. - Action group formed (Save The Deddington One) - a spokes person said, Something has to be done. The thought of him spending even more of his free time in the local pubs is terrifying. | ||||||||
| OBSERVER - Google $36 billion float hangs in the balance - Channel 4 brings in UBS as it gears up for a merger with Five - Target, America's largest discount-store chain after Wal-Mart, is eyeing British retailers with a view to making an acquisition - Royal Bank of Scotland may enter 9 billion bidding war for Abbey National - William Morrison is finalising terms on a 40 million package of stores for sale to Asda. - Kohlberg Kravis Roberts is considering entering the 700 million bid battle for Grey GlobalThrog Street: - Cloudy skies for carriers British Airways, Ryanair and Easyjet - Stick with William MorrisonOther comment: - Interview Sir Crispin Davis of Reed Elsevier | ||||||||
| MAIL ON SUNDAY - Lloyds TSB prepares the ground for a potential bidding war that could scupper the 8.15 billion agreed takeover by Santander - Tesco in talks with the Co-Op to allow it to use Clubcard loyalty points to help meet customers' funeral expensesMidas column: - Buy Premier Oil ahead of its fresh wave of explorationUpdate: - Bank some profits at Wolseley | ||||||||
| THE BUSINESS - Banco Santander faces legal hitch on Abbey National deal - WPP Group closes in on Grey Global as Havas considers withdrawing from a deal - David Elstein, former chief of Channel 5, emerges as frontrunner in the bidding for the international operations of Hallmark Entertainment - Scottish Power has won approval from the Ministry of Defence, to build one of the largest wind farms in DumfriesshireBenchmark: - China's banks draw investors despite loan worries - The rescue of Euro Disney has never been so near, yet far Inside the Market: - Fund of the Month: Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust - Small Cap Investor: Buy Ultra Electronics - AIM Investor - Proteome Sciences is a speculative buyOther comment: - Old Mutual shows wear and tear | ||||||||
| SUNDAY EXPRESS - Gazprom of Russia is seeking a UK partner for a plan to supply Siberian gas to western Europe via a pipeline across the Baltic Sea - Simon Burke, the retail entrepreneur, is being courted by private equity firms about bidding for Odeon Cinemas - Boots chief Richard Baker is understood to be conducting a review of the group's property assets - Sir Richard Branson is planning to launch low-cost airlines in India and China - Sir Richard Branson is set to launch a fresh bid to wrest the National Lottery from Camelot - Focus on BSkyB: is Sky at its limits? - Profile John Allan, chief executive Exel - Lastminute.com is still going places | ||||||||
| INDEPENDENT - 7,000 back-office jobs to go at Abbey National if Santander bid succeeds - Cable & Wireless 200 million sale of UK properties. - Canary Wharf harbours vision of turning itself into a wild life haven - Interview Aiden Heavey of Tullow Oil - A rude awakening at Euro Disney. | ||||||||
| INVESTORS CHRONICLETips:Buy Carillion (CCLN) at 190p - TV Corporation (TVC) at 84p - Invox (INX) at 315p - Solitaire (STG) at 465p Sell Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) at 566p and Sunderland (SUA)at 25pTip Updates: Buy Big Food Group (BFG)- Debt Free Direct (DFD) - Sell Minerva (MNR) - Stream (SEA)and Chrysalis (CHS) | ||||||||
| SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week:Buy: Nichols (NICL) at 128p - Ten Alps Communications (TAL) at 50.5p - Celtic Resources (CER) at 388p - Wynnstay (WYN) (long-term) at 201p. | ||||||||
Martini
- 08 Aug 2004 12:55
- 5 of 30
The weekend migration seems to have caused some glitches in the links I normally use for header and the weekly calendar. Hopefully this will be fixed when the troops get back to work Monday so apologies for the messy header and gaps for now.
If your finding it hard out there as traders at present then you are not alone as this article in the Times points out.
Special Report (See hard copy for full report)
Stagnant stock markets kill off the day traders
I will probably get my hands slapped for posting a link with the CEO of another site in there but heyho I need a new job soon so better grovel :)
Good Hunting
Groveler of Oxon
teletigger
- 08 Aug 2004 13:14
- 6 of 30
regards
Martini
- 08 Aug 2004 13:21
- 7 of 30
Well found one :) Shouldnt trust spell checkers eh?
M
teletigger
- 08 Aug 2004 14:10
- 8 of 30
regards
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 16:02 - 9 of 30
NDX
|
X |
X
1550
X
O
X
O
1540
X
O
X
O
1530
X
O
O
X
X
1520
X
O
X
X
O
X
O
1510
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
X
O
1500
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
X
O
X
X
X
O
1490
X
O
X
O
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
1480
X
O
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
1470
X
O
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
1460
X
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
O
1450
X
O
X
O
X
O
O
X
O
1440
O
X
O
X
O
X
X
O
X
O
X
1430
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
X
X
X
O
X
O
1420
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
1410
O
X
O
X
O
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
1400
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
O
X
O
X
O
O
O
X
O
1390
O
X
O
O
X
O
O
O
X
O
1380
O
O
O
X
O
1370
O
O
1360
O
1350
O
1340
O
1330
O
1320
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 16:09 - 10 of 30
bottom, it's also broken a descending triple bottom.
It's all a bit quick and knee-jerk to me. Not sure how far it
will fall, but I would expect at least a retest of 1360 from
underneath when/if it turns.
NDX will influence the S&P, which has also just broken a double
bottom, but made, not yet broken, a descending triple bottom.
That chart follows.
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 16:10 - 11 of 30
S&P
|
X |
1160
X
X
O
X
1150
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
1140
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
1130
X
O
O
X
O
X
O
1120
X
O
X
O
X
O
1110
X
O
X
O
X
O
1100
X
O
O
X
O
1090
X
O
O
1080
X
O
1070
X
X
1060
X
X
O
X
1050
X
X
O
X
O
X
1040
X
O
X
O
X
O
1030
X
O
X
O
1020
X
X
X
O
X
1010
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
1000
X
O
X
O
X
O
990
X
O
X
O
X
980
X
O
O
970
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 16:15 - 12 of 30
The chart is being followe by the Dow Jones Eustox50,
as can be seen in the following chart.
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 16:18 - 13 of 30
|
X |
2940 | ||||||||||||||||
|
X |
X |
O |
X |
2910 | |||||||||||||
|
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
2880 | |||||||||||
|
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
2850 | |||||||||||
|
X |
O |
O |
X |
X |
O |
X |
2820 | ||||||||||
|
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
2790 | |||||||||
|
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
2760 | |||||||||
|
X |
O |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
2730 | ||||||||||
|
X |
O |
O |
X |
O |
2700 | ||||||||||||
|
X |
X |
O |
X |
O |
2670 | ||||||||||||
|
X |
X |
O |
X |
O |
O |
2640 | |||||||||||
|
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
2610 | ||||||||||
|
O |
X |
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
2580 | ||||||||||
|
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
O |
2550 | |||||||||||
|
O |
X |
O |
X |
2520 | |||||||||||||
|
O |
X |
O |
X |
2490 | |||||||||||||
|
O |
X |
O |
2460 | ||||||||||||||
|
O |
X |
2430 | |||||||||||||||
|
O |
2400 |
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 16:21 - 14 of 30
initial support at 2550.
Which brings us to the boring old FTSE (UKX)
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 16:22 - 15 of 30
UKX
|
X |
4600
X
X
O
X
X
O
X
O
4500
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
X
O
4400
X
O
O
X
O
X
X
O
O
4300
X
O
X
X
X
O
X
4200
X
O
X
O
X
X
O
X
O
4100
X
O
X
X
O
4000
X
X
3900
X
X
X
O
X
3800
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 16:29 - 16 of 30
range bound.
Swing chart is down, as is all the others. Surprise, surprise. :-)
We've filled the gaps we left lower, as I pointed out last Sunday,
but have now left gaps above.
I wouldn't go long just yet, I need to see where the NDX and S&P
bottom and maybe carry on following them down short with tight stops.
There will be an oversold bounce as Bears take profits and the Bulls
try and squeeze them.
Still can't see into the future, so will let the market guide me, as usual,
when to turn from Bear to Bull.
Melnibone.
hijeff - 08 Aug 2004 17:17 - 17 of 30
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 18:49 - 18 of 30
For all you Bank fans, caught up in the current M&A frenzy.
This is where we're at in the downtrend channel. Note the slow
stochastic which has been pretty good at calling the turns so far.
Just to put another nail in position on the coffin lid as I raise
the hammer, LLOY, HBOS and RBS all go hefty ex-dividend this Wednesday. ;-)
Don't let any of the above put you off if you fancy a Bank or two, though.
Trends don't go on forever, and it is only my view.
Would seem to be a strange time to call a trend change though, with
all the major Indices looking like they are, and the above chart
looking like it is.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 19:09 - 19 of 30
Thought you might like to look at a proper Ftse chart after all my
'Noughts and Crosses' ones above. :-)
Note how the 20&40 Ma's have been criss crossing with the year's
range trading. Pretty pattern, eh? :-)
But look how they are now both starting to look after that lower
major high at the end of June. Also note the point where the slow stochastic
is now in, in relation to its cycle.
Although as said previously, I'm looking for an oversold bounce in stuff
when it bottoms, I'm not going to get longterm Bullish unless some
important resistances get taken out on good volume. I'll still be looking
for swing highs to short.
Managed to get a good few posts in this evening, to show what I'm looking
at for anyone that is interested. Now its back to the flooring for the
week with the odd post when I can.
Make your own luck. Work out your stategy of how you want to play this
in advance.
Maintain discipline, have patience, and wait for your long or short
entry points. Don't panic or jump in prematurely.
Melnibone.
Martini
- 08 Aug 2004 19:39
- 20 of 30
Melnibone - 08 Aug 2004 20:52 - 21 of 30
With all this work on, the weekend is the only chance I'm getting
to do any research and formulate my strategy for the week ahead.
Thought I'd share it with you all whilst I was at it.
I usually download the weeks raw data into my Psion handheld computer on
a Saturday. I can then relax in bed, propped up on plump pillows on
on the Saturday evening whilst I convert it to normal charts and
P&F charts. Upload it to the laptop on a Sunday, have read of the news,
and it's then ready for posting here with a few views.
Hope it's of interest. Wouldn't mind hearing some other folks views, though.
Come on guys & gals. Don't be shy.:-)
Melnibone.
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