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- 12 Feb 2015 07:41
Silver and Platinum Charts.
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GBP/USD
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GBP/EUR
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"If we take a look at the 'Commitment Of Traders' report, we see that exuberance over the recent surge in energy prices has pushed the number of oil contracts back to the second-highest levels on record.
"As with the past, these surges in contracts have typically denoted short-term peaks in oil prices. This time is likely going to be no different."
A technical look at oil prices also suggests near-term profit taking in energy-related positions is likely a good idea. As shown, oil prices are not only trading at the top of a long-term downtrend channel, but are also pushing two standard deviations above the mean.
With momentum and prices at extreme overbought conditions, a near-term reversion is very likely. I have noted each previous peak price in oil with vertical blue-dashed lines.
Of course, one of the main drivers of such a reversion would be a reversal of the recent weakness in the dollar. Like the advance in oil, the decline in the dollar has also been just as extreme.
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