Time to stand up and be counted in my opinion..

news is turning positive here...wontg be long before sentiment drives this one up..........

We have a seller and until they are finished we won't see the full benefit (ref 70M sell)

I'm also a potential multi-millionaire on the back of this one and hope to join the island celebrations a couple of years hence.
The latest AGM report reads even better if you look back at last years annual report, which is still available on-line: the change in tone and sentiment is quite dramatic and undoubtedly reflects a new found confidence in the management. I think they still have funding problems but seem to be steering their way through and now are presumably enjoying improved cash flow.
It's all a gamble, in this case with lots of upside I think.
sd.

Please don't ask to see my figures and do not take this as gospel, but from my part I will be adding to this stock, bareing in mind it will not be up and running till the end of next year and I have based the profit on the UK (profit verses viewers) format, the Potential viewers that PCM will expect from China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan could be ten times this 60m x 10 So this is at the low end. Also the license fees to sit-up of US $14.0m about 8m plus royalties totaling US $6.4m about 3.7m have to be found (loan) and paid back out of profits over a period of time.
The expected EPS X 20 (mid range for a tec stock) gives me an sp of about 3.70p, like I said it could be ten time this with the extra viewers, in what time scale who knows? But its looking good.

Been reading through this driver ,, very interesting...

driver - I admire your enthusiasm and courage in equal measure, having drawn my attention to this company from the SEO thread.

Forgive me for not reading the whole thread, and therefore possibly duplicating previous thoughts, but I've spent the afternoon reading the RNS and accounts for the last 12 months and a few facts stand out.

1) An accumulated loss of 82m at 31st december 2004.

2.a) Interest at LIBOR + 9% on US$14m loan from its major shareholder = approx. UK1m p.a. I've seen companies before that need to borrow more than the interest charge each time it becomes payable - not a pretty sight for long, eventually!

2.b) Need to borrow $14m plus $6.4m for the sit-up deal - another 1.6m p.a. in interest, assuming a similar rate to above.

3) The 28 month royalty of 3.7m - taken at the same rate as the prospective 2%, is equivalent to turn over of 79,286,000 p.a. from these format rights. Is this realistic - reaching this target over how long?

4) The turnover on continuing activities to 31st December 2004 was a mere 345,000.

In spite of the breathless sequence of announcements during 2005 which all look terrific and the claimed "double-digit month on month growth in sales" (sadly, no numbers mentioned which they could easily have done), there seems an awful long way to go to a cash positive, let alone profitable business. The only figure I would ask you for is your estimate of gross sales for 2006 (first full year of all recent deals) - do you have any evidence for it? Does anyone, even the directors?

I'm not knocking this share - just asking. It is very sexy, being priced at 0.18 offer as I write, and it always looks very satisfying to own millions of shares for a normal portfolio allocation of money, BUT . . . . unless you have some very persuasive facts as to turnover, I would have to wait until at least interims demonstrate how well we are heading in the right direction on the hard numbers. Is that very wimpy of me?

Good luck and let me know if I've missed the blinding light on the road to Beijing!

sd

I am obviously going to come up with some thing more concrete to convince such a master of stocks, I will give it another look, thanks for the look in for now.

stockdog,
QXL did- so PCM might be able to do.

I sold 3.6k QXL shares at 315p and lost about 3k. QXL is over 3600p now. I can't understand why I listened to some of the messages here.

stockdog
Based on Sit-Up's achieved turnover for the year ended 31 December 2004 of 206.1 million and profit before tax of 11.5 million, there live channels have a collective customer base of over 2 million people and its channels are watched each month by in excess of 5 million viewers. PCM are going to operate in China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. I am sure the Chinese and Asian people are going to love the bid up format, so as I said before these figures above could be multiplied ten fold the revenue will take time to come through though, the future is looking good over the next two to five years.

206m out of the UK is quite some turnover and, as you say, the Chinese are probably fond of the format being inveterate gamblers and bargain chasers, so we are always told. So X 10 = 2bn turnover - that's starting to look profitable, I have to admit.

Their shareholder must believe in something to keep lending so much cash to them.

sd

Its been a while since I dropped in and a lot has gone on.

So lets get our facts on the table on this one:

There are a lot of people who remember the bad old days at PCM, and will be very wary of punting anymore money on this stock.
But what people have to realise is this IS NOT the PCM they remember - THIS IS A NEW COMPANY WITH NEW GOALS AND POTENTIAL - the appointment of Steven Goodman as Executive Director, Group Legal Advisor and Robert C. Harris, Jr as Non Executive Director late last year are the main reasons behind the turnaround in fortunes of PCM.These appointments were done for a reason under recommendation, and are absolutely essential for PCMs new enviroment.

Since their arrival we now have a distribution network, once complete (sit up) will not be rivalled by anyone in Asia. Asia market = x 10 UK market (at least)

In addition to Responze TV they have recently added to their distribution network:
Asias largest health and beauty chain - Watsons
two major distribution agreements with Wal-Mart
China Media Networks (CMN),major media services and airtime management company based in Beijing (over 28 million viewers)
Quik, China's largest convenience store chain
Bailian, a major intimate apparel chain based in Shanghai
Union Health, a nationwide wholesale distributor of cosmetic brands.
And soon the big one "Sit-Up" style shopping channel.

And the products...

well so far the above appointments have added these:

RAPID WHITE tooth whitening
BEST DIRECT Feather Bra
Exclusive Distribution Rights for Activa Beauty Products

but I would expect this to expand rapidly now the distribution network is taking shape and manufacturers can at last see the potential market which PCM can provide for their products.

We know there are outstanding debts and royalties to be paid, but if your after a long termer then this could be the biggest success story of this decade - watch this space - after all Edgar Bronfman is overseeing all this!

Just dont expect to get rich quick

dynamicsoul
Good post, well done for getting all the bits together.

Well put ds--as long as I end up rich I can wait patiently for this one to take off! some of my shares I have held from the bad old days so they need to move up before see blue even. but as you say the fundamentals are all in place....

dynamicsoul - I agree with your list of achievements which I gleaned directly from reading all the RNS of the last year over the weekend.

I have a small quibble with your last statement - "after all Edgar Bronfman is overseeing all this". He was meant to join the board as a non-exec, then he deferred that decision due to material financial differences in the company. Now that those last have been explained/resolved, he has decided not to join any more boards - so he is special advisor to the board. He is not overseeing all this - he is at best a source of good contacts in US and Far East in order to help gain political acceptance of the company. He should be very useful in helping develop pioneer trade in China, when you look at the roots of his family's distilery interests in Canada during US prohibition! But don't claim too much for him.

I am curious you omitted mention of chairman Darren Shaw who seems a very dynamic presence in the turnariound of PCM's strategy since his appointment. (Not related to Run Run Shaw, is he, anyone know? That would be a very interesting family connection!)

Still watching to see how things develop.

sd

Thanks for the visit sd, and the interest.

Stockdog: Darren Shaw is the nephew of Sir Run Run Shaw. This information is included in PCM news room archive of 18-02-04.
Your query has prompted me to read again the profiles of the directors, and it persuades me that this is a purposeful and experienced team with all the right contacts, so I will be topping up my holding whilst the chart looks as though it is on the bottom.
sd.
PS; I note that your FAO is coming to life.

sd--tell us more about Run Run Shaw--I hope it's not run for the hills time!!

Run Run Shaw was very successful film producer/distributor who funded several billion dollars worth of good works out of his profits and was knighted for his services. See the link below.

My main point of interest is that Darren Shaw's name does not immediately suggest his Chinese cultural origins which, to my mind, make his obvious talents even more appropriate to creating a success out of PCM in their chosen Chinese market, not to mention a legitimate hope that he inherited his family's adherence to commercial success.

http://www.mywiseowl.com/articles/Run_Run_Shaw -

Ian can we please have a lesson in how this new link posting is supposed to work. None of us seem to be able to work it as we used to. As I write I can see my posted link below me in < <>> brackets. On posting the message it does not show up, so I have simply copied it here above where other readers will just have to copy and paste it to their browser, instead of being able to click on it.

sd

stockdog..

All I meant by that last paragraph was Edgar has an eye on things in an advisory role, Im sure if they need advice on entering a territory or deal he is there on hand with bags of experience of increasing turnover and fortunes of companies...

And on the note of his appointment, strange that the wal mart deal came about just days after his acceptance of an advisory role.


Darren Shaw has been involved - yes, but the guys I mentioned have been quite instrumental in bringing the majority of these deals home.

;)

Poijnt taken, ds.

Maybe Darren's family are instrumental in their major shareholder who are so free with their support of PCM? It would make sense.

sd

Ah! here's what we need:-

Edit - sorry about that. When I copied it is was in pure Mandarin. Whne I posted it it came out as ?????. It was only ever intended for the educated few.

Chow!

sd