This ones a heck of a specualive investment but it seems that the institutions are willing to stomp up the cash to back it in the long term.

Heres the latest news from Killik stocbrokers on the company..........

MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture

We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.

Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.

This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)

The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million. ENDS.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

If this goes up on no news I think it will retract and the shorters will jump all over it again. But if we get news then the shorts will get a real stuffing.

MS

Thanks MS.
I'm not a subscriber.

I think this will reach 400p in no time

Not without substantial news it won't.

MS

Dont be so down Mickey, but your caution is well recieved.

cheers GF.

Not sure if this oine as been posted before.............

One Deal Away
9/1/2006 (119264)

One Deal Away


Just one commercial agreement with a major pharmaceutical company for one of Medical Marketing Internationals (MMG) products could transform the business and its value.

That is a direct quotation from the pre-Christmas interim statement by David Best, chairman of MMI. It had little impact, perhaps because Best has made similar statements before. It is possible that MMI will not land such an agreement, of course. Nothing in the highly technical pharmaceutical industry is certain. But the chances are looking good, and at 142p to 149p, the shares continue to look a good gamble with a market capitalisation of about 70m.

Such a conclusion is nothing new here, however. MMI has long been a favourite at higher and lower prices. The interim statement merely emphasised the opportunity.

With the benefit of a 10m fund-raising at 135p at the end of September, MMI has a solid balance sheet which removes any opportunity for a bigger business to force negotiations through. MMI has strength to survive happily for at least a couple of years while there is further progress on what appear to be two potentially block-buster cancer treatments, with others in the background.

One way or another, the company is talking to the majority of the worlds top ten pharmaceutical giants. This is not speculation. It is fact, confirmed by the company. Some of these discussions have been in progress for quite some time. It would be unwise to attempt to predict when one would produce a public announcement, but 2006 should be the year when MMI starts to deliver deals which justify the belief of insiders that it is worth very much more than the current share rating.

Anyone in any doubt ought to go to the companys website at www.mmigroup.co.uk, or check my archives for the November 3 report on the presentation at the annual meeting (The MMI Meeting).

The Genvax (effectively 58% owned) subsidiary has a global first in DNA vaccines, achieving a strong targeted immune response against cancer. The wholly owned Oncosense subsidiary features a family of ruthenium compounds which look as if they could become established as a superior alternative to the massively important platinum-based drugs in the fight against cancer. There is other potentially exciting progress, but Genvax and ruthenium lead the way.

The interim report shows that all is coming along nicely. Genvax has four different cancer vaccines in the clinic. The lymphoma study has been done. The key results have been published, but the full study is not yet complete, and will take a while longer. There is no adverse reason for this, and it is unlikely that the final odds and ends will do other than echo the results already known.

This is confirmed by news that the other Genvax trials have permission to push ahead. The prostate cancer trial should finish at the end of February, with more patients recruited and higher doses being administered. Though it is fairly easy to measure the results, it will probably take several months before they are released.

Permission has been granted for a colon cancer trial. That is a longer term project, and could take a couple of years. A further trial using healthy bone marrow donors is in the clinic.

Though the main research thrust has been towards treating cancer, the Genvax vaccines are also significant because they demonstrate that the company has
a working DNA vaccine which might help provide a rapid solution to the possible bird flu pandemic.

Dr Freda Stevenson and her colleagues at the University of Southampton have created a platform technology with many possible applications. After years of neglect, the vaccine market is hot again as governments pump money into initiatives which can boost production. DNA vaccines can be made in a matter of weeks, and hopefully can be formulated rapidly to respond to the changing shape of the avian flu virus.

The company is talking to relevant authorities. This suggests that not only are major pharmaceutical companies involved, but Government scientists are also taking an interest. All such matters are governed by tight confidentiality clauses, so shareholders will have to watch and wait.

The latest unsettling news from Turkey supports the fear that a pandemic is still likely, though transmission from human to human has not yet happened.

All in all, it appears that Genvax is probably the most likely to be the first MMI project to attract a major announcement, though this is by no means certain. Because it deals with an area of science which has frustrated others for decades, potential partners have more questions to resolve ahead of any deal.

The chemistry of ruthenium is not that dissimilar from platinum, where there is a vast bank of knowledge and understanding, making it potentially more predictable.

MMI has received the first two of three ruthenium compounds manufactured to commercial standards by Sigma-Aldrich. Tests will start very soon, and it could take a couple of months to establish that these compounds reproduce the original results. There will also be work to establish the maximum tolerated dose, and to ensure that the compound remains stable in a variety of conditions. All being well, this will be the prelude to a move into clinical trials later this year.

Ruthenium has attracted more interest than might have been expected at this stage, and there is work to develop a second generation of compounds and to guard patents.

Supported by the possibility that the Viratis programme developing ribozymes to treat viral diseases could also become a platform technology, the MMI portfolio is developing in highly promising fashion.

Talks with potential partners continue against a background of a steady flow of industry deals between big pharma and small research-based companies.

These can attract packages worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and in some cases open the way to billions of dollars. It is always important to emphasise that until a deal is done, there is no guarantee that any of the MMI technology could attract any such deal. But the breakthrough at Genvax, and the progress on ruthenium suggest MMI has a real chance.

AstraZeneca is in the process of buying a private British company called KuDos for $210m. KuDos has one cancer product in phase I trials, and on the face of it looks less much less broadly based than MMI.

Just before Christmas, US company Atherogenics announced that AstraZeneca was to licence a product which is in phase III for atherosclerosis, a disease which leads to heart attacks and strokes. AstraZeneca will pay $50m upfront, with $300m on development milestones and $650m in other fees and milestone payments. There will also be royalties on sales. Predicted turnover is $2bn.

A different area to MMI? Sure. But cancer therapy is a massive market, and the two most successful platinum-based drugs had peak sales of $5bn before generics came in.
The MMI projects are well behind the Atherogenics product in terms of clinical trials. It is important to realise that they could fall at any hurdle.

As MMI continues to move along the path towards and through clinical trials, however, the notional value increases. A deal with big pharma in the months ahead ought to raise the perceived value of the company significantly.

In the meantime, there could be more news on patents, and perhaps some reports from brokers who have been following the company.

MMI shares remain a high-risk, high-return play. Last year, we saw big pharma businesses being forced to withdraw big-selling drugs from the market as the problems with the science emerged. No investment in this sector can be regarded as absolutely safe and predictable.

Look, though, at the repeated statements from the company. Several times, Best has mentioned talks with big pharma and pointed to the potential for transforming value.

The shares tend to move quite sharply on low volume, and have been subject to cynical attacks from shorters in the past. They remain vulnerable until Best can announce a deal, so holding MMI is not without risk. But the odds look good.

I hold shares in MMI.

Ends

cheers GF.

A good post the details of which most of us long term holders will know about.
It is good to have it posted on the board if only to remind some people what they seem to have forgotten the last few months.
This as stated in the above post is high risk but one i`m willing to take.

Me too DB66. The risk it there, but I think the potential outweighs any risk. I'm in and staying in.

LOL

MS

Looking at the effect on SP of the Atherogenics AZN deal announcement, the SP increased 25% from 16$ to 21$.
The SP 2 months later is back down to 16$ (in a bull market!, lesson to be learnt?).
This was for a phase III drug not one about to start phase IIb.
My point is that I think the comment "one deal away" is misleading. The drugs are no more likely to be successful with big pharma on board.

I see drug results being the key driver here and not deals (although it will help).

Having said that Atherogenics is valued at 600M$ and increased 150M$ on the announcement. They have a poor pipeline with only 1 other product in phase 1 but do have 200M$ cash.
Shame MMG are not listed on NASDAQ.

From the other place, worth a read.


BennytheBall - 15 Feb'06 - 16:56 - 6901 of 6902


M25, Good question - I've always felt that the nearer the products get to market, the greater the risk, paradoxically... When it's all blue sky stuff, the sp is really sentiment driven. If it hadn't been for last year's bear raid, we would have seen asonishing gains just on the strength of sentiment. Many of us have already gained massively on speculation that if products get into clinical trials, the forward discount (ie DCF) model says that x billion minus 92% likelihood of failure makes it worth y million now... but it's all a gamble really. Whereas once we get procducts into phase III clinical trials and commercial deals are in the price, there is something tangible (even more tangible than fatboy C) that could drive the price down - unimpressive trial results.

A couple of years ago I wondered whether it made sense to sell when we got to phase III, once the maximum amount had been priced in for likely success, before we got to actually knowing whether the trials had succeeded. After last year's shinanigans, I almost wish I'd kept more closely to that plan and sold at 2.50...

But your question, what effect on the SP if a deal announced, I still say 5.50 short term, 20 end of the year.

Do you recall mitzis' 2004 target was 1.20, which seemed way off-beam at 31/12/4 when the price was 55p, but within weeks we'd gone through it...

I'm hoping that my 5.50 target from last Autumn will meet the same fate with the coming news

What's your view of the liely effect on sp when the first deal(s) is(/are) announced?

b

el magnifico - 16 Feb'06 - 10:20 - 6902 of 6902


Benny,

The problem with making a forecast is that there are several potential catalysts and possible combinations of announcements. This is a good thing !

Off the top of my head, here's a quick list : a ruthenium PH II trial start announcement; Genvax's March 2006 update on extended trial (recall DB's comments at last AGM "the longer a trial runs, the better it is...if results are poor, the trial terminates"); Genvax developments into non-bespoke cancer vaccines; any Viratis progess in AIDS, hepatitis, RA or asthma; any squeak about a bird 'flu vaccine; any commercial agreement with large pharma in any of the above therapeutic areas.

If you could tell me which of these will be announced in the next few months, I could make a stab at constructing a model to propose a price target.

But here's a "starter for ten (pounds!)". Assuming that we hear post-16 March from MMG about Genvax's progress (as we did in 2005 from the same event), then I guess that a suceesful extended trial will be the news to expect and, at that point, I think that the 2.50 level is attainable (and, this time, sustainable)for starters. For 10+, at least one major marketing deal with big Pharma will be required, IMHO.

The point is, to paraphrase Benny, that the response to any one of the above items is "up big-time". If you believe the MMG story, you should be putting the finishing touches to a long-term position now.

Taking a shorter term view, the current price weakness may be the last chance to buy MMG at depressed levels before the smart money slides in ahead of March !

el

Yup before March.

cheers GF.

Moving ahead strongly this morning, the big deal cant be that far away now. Shorters should be hovering over the buy back button.

cheers GF.

Lets hope for more of the same tomorrow!
I do take heart and agree with this part of Mickeys post,(Genvax's March 2006 update on extended trial (recall DB's comments at last AGM "the longer a trial runs, the better it is..) So good news should be just around the corner.

Its time for those who kept the faith to be rewarded !
p.s
Thanks for email GF as always much appreciated.

No probs, DB.

cheers GF.

This seems to be hotting up again.
Like you say GF, shorters must be worried now!

A move in the right direction at last.

MS

From the other site. It looks as if a few people are starting to get a bit excited.

A0469514 - 24 Feb'06 - 10:04 - 6926 of 6932


News around the corner, Benny? Well I have the 16th and 17th of March pencilled on my calendar which are the dates when Dr Freda Stevenson is due to make a presentation to the DNA Vaccine forum on progress with her Genvax research and trials.

If people remember this time last year, we started to get intense speculation about how effective the lymphoma trials had been. Mike Walters suggested, on his internet site, that Dr Stevenson could possibly have, at last, found a cure for cancer. The research was that promising. He announced in his article that he was so impressed that he was buying the shares next day. I have a lot of respect for Walters. Most commentators would have loaded up their portfolio before releasing his article but he feels that he has to be on the same footing as his subscribers. Well, that is what he claims.

Anyway, the shares, which had been gaining strength on rumours of the Genvax results, took off after the Walters article only to be brought crashing back again when his arch enemy Simon Cawkwell started a shorting campaign. Unfortunately, Cawkwell does not have quite the same scruples as Walters and every trick in the shorters book was used by him and his followers to force the shares lower.

So where do we stand on the Genvax research and the 'cure' for cancer?

Well, we do not know for certain and that, I guess, is why the shares got so volatile. The news release on this is controlled very tightly, it seems, by the Cancer Research UK charity who have provided most of the funding for the research. After last year's DNA vaccine forum , we waited patiently for days after before a RNS was released and, in the end, it did not say very much. Medical Marketing hold the marketing rights to any Genvax therapies and it would perhaps be in their interest to shout from the rooftops about how good it is. At this stage, it is definitely not in Cancer Research's interest, and they control the newsflow. If word gets out that they may have a cure for cancer they would be swamped by the media and then by the public, pleading to get on the programme. It is just impossible for them to accommodate the demand until the products have been through the regulatory process. They just have to keep the news releases to a minimum until the time suits them.

So newsflow may well still be restrained, for now, but it has to start coming out soon. Freda has an obligation to keep her peer group informed and MMG has an obligation to keep the market informed of price sensitive information. Cancer Research UK has to let the news out eventually and, as I remember, we were promised full results of Genvax lymphoma trials in January and they have yet to appear, as far as I am aware. When Cancer Research UK feels the time is right then they will go to the media and it could be sensational. A press release from them is sure to have far more impact than a release from a small Cambridge company.

Mike Walters knows David Best, the MMG boss, very well and he is obviously very excited by what Mr Best has told him. No, we need to be careful here. Mr Walters is very excited by the research he has carried out on the company.

It is largely a matter of reading between the lines and deciding for yourself who you can trust and who you cannot. From my research on this company, I can tell you that I am extremely optimistic on many fronts and when the news finally breaks, there are a few of the 'old crew', as Benny calls them, who are suddenly going to feel very much wealthier.

Xylos

I read that on the other side as well Mickey .Things do seem to be looking up,although we must not get caught out like what happened last year.

Yup lets stay cool.

cheers GF.

These are steaming ahead today lets hope for more of the same next week, or am I tempting fate.

MS