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Backed England on 'unquoted score' (I think that means England has got to score more than 4 goals) @ 1.7.

D

Greetings all, I have quiet as I have been very busy this week and with the kids at home its been a mare. Will respond to some questions later. Any how, my views on the match. Looked at the stats and plugged them into my model.

1.04 England to win is the right price, 40's for the draw and 60's for the away win. 0-0 about 80's. Over 2.5 goals should be trading around 1.23

Decay for the match if no score on England

15 Mins - 1.05
30 Mins - 1.09
45 Mins - 1.16

Azers price will also drift but then start to come in. The crossover point is around 60 mins. The draw will come in most if there is no score.

Should Azer be 1-0 up at half time you could see the price coming in to single digits. Much depends on the first half performance of course.

Deigo four or more goals should see you home.

looks a reasonable bet - only concern would be sven saying he'll be happy with a 1-0 win!!!

engalnd half time/full time at 1.17 looks good value to me

also looking at first goal odds - 0-10 mins 3.55, 10-20 mins 3.85 which equates to approx 2.35 for 0-20 mins - surely we should be odds on to score inside 20 minutes shouldnt we?

Edit - my maths is garbage again - works out at about 1.9 for first 20 mins - far more what i expected!!! still reasonable value?

Around 25 mins on average for first goal according to the stats.

Just remember San Marino!

Seven goals or more market trading a 5.0, that's a daft price IMHO. Even with such a mismatch I reckon the real odds are vastly different from 4-1.

In fact I think I will lay it, not saying it wont come in but on average if you take a position like this you will end up quids in big time. I'll cover elsewhere probably there is enough margin to do it.

Evening scrip

are you trading any of the other matches?

I'll be on as many as possible. I can't see Austria losing to Wales.

likwise - though they can be a bit defensive minded so not expecting an early goal - will wait and watch

greece and italy both look sure things but at skinny odds

I think Italy will come through but I fancy opposing Greece. A sort of pairs trade I guess?

wales unlucky not to take the lead

your siding with albania?

greece in front :-)

Can I change my mind?

Really nothing more than to add some interest really that one.

Englands odds are very stubborn at the moment. Drifting out but very slowly.

Now starting to cover off my 7 goals or more lay. Now trading at 10's from under 5's before the off. That's my best bet of the night.