< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Steady hyleo98...what's happened to the shorting jacket ?....

it's a straightjacket and it is being fitted to tomasz

"The Ebok North Fault Block ("Ebok NFB") exploration well was spudded on 12 April 2012 by Afren and Oriental Energy Resources ("Oriental"), and reached a total vertical (and measured) depth of 4,320 ft, with the Transocean Adriatic lX jack-up drilling rig. The well was targeting a separate fault block structure located to the north of the main Ebok field, and has successfully encountered 370 ft net pay (TVT) of good quality oil in the same Tertiary reservoir sands equivalent to those that have been developed and are in production at the main Ebok field development. The discovery of significant oil pay at this location underlines the high-grade prospectivity that exists across the wider Ebok/Okwok/OML 115 area, and represents an important step towards unlocking the full volume and value potential of what is a core hub of Afren's portfolio.

Logging operations at the Ebok NFB well have been completed, with data obtained supporting a PmeanSTOIIP in excess of 100 million barrels of oil, towards the upper end of Afren's pre-drill expectations. The well will now be suspended whilst Afren and Oriental determine the optimal development solution for Ebok NFB. This will likely incorporate synergies using the existing production, storage and offtake infrastructure at the main Ebok field and could involve the early drilling of new production wells from the existing wellhead platform at Ebok West Fault Block, followed by a full field development of Ebok NFB. The Transocean Adriatic IX rig will shortly commence the drilling of early production wells at the recent Okoro East discovery."

Deutsche Bank review note:
"Afren (Buy, TP 260p) A clear path to 200p and beyond -
Afren is the cheapest stock in our coverage universe on cash flow multiples and trades at a small premium to core NAV. As a result, we believe the shares are discounting little, if anything, for Kurdistan and East Africa where the company’s assets could deliver transformational growth. Even on a conservative view, we believe that the Nigerian asset base can deliver a clear path to 200p through a rolling development of discovered fields. We initiate with a Buy and a 260p PT."

Bought back in today ,sold them at the end of the tax year and have been waiting for a good entry price .

London, 15 May 2012 - Afren plc announces its Interim Management Statement and financial results for the three months ended 31 March 2012 and an update on its operations to 15 May 2012, in accordance with the reporting requirements of the EU Transparency Directive. Information contained within this release is un-audited and is subject to further review.

Highlights
· 2012 exploration campaign yielding significant success

- High value discoveries offshore south east Nigeria at Okoro East and Ebok North Fault Block

- Transformational Simrit-2 discovery in Kurdistan region of Iraq; exploration well being deepened ahead of extensive testing programme

- Ongoing prospect maturation in East Africa with significant data acquisition; 1,570 km total 2D seismic, 9,000 km gravity and magnetic data

- 2012 exploration targeting mean resources of 630 mmboe (net to Afren)

· Q1 net production of 41,308 boepd in line with expectations for the period (+327% year-on-year)

- Early production wells on Okoro East to be drilled shortly

- Further development of Ebok field ongoing (four production wells)

- On track for full year net production guidance (42,000 boepd to 46,000 boepd)

· Development work underway at Barda Rash field

- On track for first oil in August 2012

· Significantly cash generative portfolio

- Turnover US$386.7 million (Q1 2011: US$73.4 million); profit after tax US$53.2 million
(Q1 2011: US$11.1 million loss)

- Net operating cash flow generated of US$300.2 million (Q1 2011: US$12.8 million net operating cash flow used); US$153.1 million net cash flow generated post capex (Q1 2011: US$147.2 million net cash flow used post capex)

- Cash at bank US$399.0 million (Q1 2011: US$333.0 million)

· Diversified sources of funding; maturing capital structure

- Successfully completed US$300 million bond issue; majority of debt long dated (2016-2019)

- Net debt US$639.4 million (Q1 2011: US$291.6 million)

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4368996

Very impressive... looks cheap at 123p.

StockMarketWire.com
Afren has said that the highlight of last year was oil starting to be produced at its major Ebok field development offshore Nigeria.

Its Chairman, Egbert Imomoh, told shareholders at the AGM: "2011 was another defining year in the growth and evolution of Afren - a period in which we delivered on all of our strategic objectives and outperformed our key performance indicators, by which we measure our progress.

"Net average daily production during the period was increased by 34% year-on-year to 19,154 boepd and we exited the year ahead of guidance. We will continue to grow our year-on-year production base, and expect to achieve an average daily rate of between 42,000 boped to 46,000 boepd net to Afren in 2012, which we are firmly on track for."

He added: "Our operating cashflow increased by 62% year-on-year to US$338m, emphasising the strongly cash generative asset base that underpins the company today, which is expected to significantly increase again in 2012, and at the same time we controlled our cost base to achieve a reduction in normalised operating expenditures."

Mr Imomoh said that the company's most significant strategic move in 2011 was its expansion into the Kurdistan region of Iraq, where it acquired interests in two assets that are of world class potential and scale in Barda Rash and Ain Sifni.

He further commented: "I am delighted to say that Afren has carried the strong operational momentum forwards and we have made an excellent start to our 2012 drilling campaign. We have accumulated three significant discoveries so far this year at Okoro East and Ebok North Fault Block in Nigeria and the Simrit-2 exploration well in the Kurdistan region of Iraq."

Great Company - I have 30,000 and may buy more if I can get a good price.

Wish they would buy Sterling Energy, as you may know.
Look at Ophir Energy - Gas offshore Tanzania.
Afren have license area on shore Madagascar for future drilling.

SEY have license areas offshore Madagascar between the two.
plus near Nigeria at Equatorial Guyana and Cameroon,
and AFR could buy them at about £50m, as most of SEY share
price is covered by cash in bank

At the other end of Madagascar is Madagascar oil co'

Great Company

Do you hold SEY ?

aldwickk -
As you guess, I have held SEY for about 6 years and made nothing from them yet, but they probably would fit with AFR. It is probably wishful thinking on my part only.

You may know that MOIL is on shore, and they seem to have heavy oil and tar sands.
Some say it will cost "a lot" for MOIL to extract oil with steam etc, and they may need a wealthy partner with steam expertise.
MOIL is too risky for me at present, but the price is way down, and it should recover.

AFN could be the one to go for over 6 months. BP have problems and may be too big a Co. to make substantial share price gains. I think TNK partnership accounts for 35% of BP production so they may need to replace that perhaps eventually.

Shareholders revolt:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9315087/Afren-shareholders-revolt-over-pay-for-the-third-year-running.html

Liberum note :
"The Kurdistan market does not look big enough to absorb growing oil production and, without exports, price pressure or quotas could deter investment. Ahead of firm agreements to enable exports, we have lowered our forecast Afren production, reduced our price target to 108p and brought our recommendation back to Hold.
Afren will start producing oil in Kurdistan later this year as the first of three phases of the Barda Rash development (Afren 60%) is completed. Gross production could increase to 125 mbd with further contributions from the Jebel Simrit discovery (Afren 20%).
There remain a series of disputes between Kurdistan and the federal Iraq Government, many related to the oil sector. In particular, Kurdistan has not received payments from the central authorities for its crude oil exports so they have been stopped. At present Kurdish oil production is being sold to local refiners but we believe the market is too small to absorb all the planned upstream capacity expansions. Kurdish producers need the export market to open or they may face quotas or weak local prices that will deter further investment.
A joint Turkey-Kurdistan plan appears to offer an export route and give the KRG control over cash distribution. However, the arrangements are almost certain to meet resistance from the Iraqi authorities and we see few reasons to assume exports will resume until there are firm contractual commitments in place. We now assume that Afren sells the initial production from Barda Rash into the domestic market but investment in the material phase 3 is postponed until exports resume. We continue to exclude any contribution from Jebel Simrit to our forecasts.
Our NAV has come back from 111p to 78p and our price target, based on top-down DCF analysis that incorporates a view on reinvestment performance, has fallen from 148p to 108p. It appears the share price has already discounted the marketing issues but with little upside, we have lowered our recommendation from Buy to HOLD."

Harry presumably this Liberum opinion applys equally to GKP?

Very tricky situation, but yes, all of the others are under review ( Genel, Petroceltic, Heritage, GKP). The problem seems to be convincing the Iraqi's (Kurds) to allow the pipeline to go ahead. Exxon has succeeded in placating the Kurds and has a multi-well drilling program in Iraq, but all of the others are either drilling or have drilled, but are stymied when it comes to exporting the gas/oil. Of course, if the licences are issued by the Iraqi's, then there is a good chance other explorers will enter the region and also that Sinopec may make a bid for GKP. It seems that it is better to invest in companies which also have other assets elsewhere for the moment, which AFR has.

Harry isn't the real underlying problem that Baghdad is afraid if they allow the Kurds to export oil they (the Kurds) will declare independence.However they will probably do that anyway as they become more and more frustrated.Whether this would result in a civil war is the big question.

given that today's iraq is an artificially constructed entity, it is an interesting question as to whether a conflict between kurdistan and mesopotamia (iraq) would constitute a civil war

cynic please don't "nitpick" with the exception of the obvious countries like Egypt most of the other "sandcastles" did not exist a century ago, don't bury your head in the sand and just recognise the way things are possibly going in Iraq.

jordan? iran? syria? lebanon? ....... i may be wrong, but i think it is iraq (and israel) that is the odd one out

anyway, will there be some sort of prolonged punch-up?
i guess much will depend on which external power pulls the most strings

cynic you omitted one of the most important Saudi Arabia founded in 1932. most of the others became independant after the french and british pulled out at the end of the second world war.