bosley
- 20 Feb 2004 09:34
EWRobson
- 10 Feb 2007 18:28
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cynic Don't see the logic. The 25 and 50 dma are just catching a trend. We should probably ignore the latest hiccough, a case of jumping the gun. The 25dma has been following a flat trading pattern for some time while the 50 dma has been approaching it. I agree that there is a balance between buyers ansd sellers at the 110 to 115p level and therefore a question as to which way the break might be. On the chart alone, you would suspect up because otherwise we would be in new (recent) ground. This would match my reasoning above from a fundamentals viewpoint which is saying that there won't be any news until it is positive! You must then guage the possibility of negative news driving the price lower because this points to the risk in the investment. Can't put a percentage on that but I would describe that risk as 'quite low'.
Boldtrader. I am very much like you at the moment. As a result of capital demands the free/risk capital is quite low and I am using it to try and build up a cfd fund where I anticipate the upward move is reasonably close. For interest, I have taken profits on ASOS and switched into AZM and JR. (Just Retirement). The latter is still on an upward trend and I am looking for the moment for a switch into SEO (probably) - I think I have time. AZM, in my view, will explode upwards this year, the question is when: but I wouldn't want to be out at the time. Sorry to be off topic.
Eric
cynic
- 10 Feb 2007 18:46
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EWR .... as you probably know, i don't care for this company at all, but follow the thread sporadically somewhat out of curiosity ..... i do not follow charts slavishly, but as i have mentioned elsewhere, they tend to be self-fullfilling ..... my gut feeling is that putting money into SEO is foolhardy ..... from the little i have seen, the management is poor, does not live up to promises, and seems no closer to securing any contracts than it was say a year ago ..... the sp performance shows that the market is generally in agreement.
as for the supermarkets, their primary objective is greater profits and/or increased margins ..... thus, if they can save money by eliminating packaging they will also keep the environmentalists happy ...... it looks to me that so-called "green packaging" is not in itself any cheaper than the current stuff used; indeed, it will probably cost more (such is the way of things) ...... perhaps they'll start selling re-usable strong paper carriers and bags ..... they can then claim that they are encouraging us all not to throw away stuff unnecessarily, and even if it is, then it is bio-degradable or recyclable ...... did i hear them mention that they would also find this a profitable exercise?
EWRobson
- 10 Feb 2007 20:37
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cynic I suspect you have to do some homework on bio-degradable packaging, and R/F sealing. Drivers thread is a good place to start: click on address in header. The frustrating thing is that they have hit the nail foursquare on the head but can't do the marketing.
cynic
- 10 Feb 2007 21:09
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at the end of the day, you have to ask yourself if the company can or will ever deliver .... i don't think it can or will ..... you put your cash there if you wish; i shan't
bosley
- 11 Feb 2007 09:33
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eric, without wishing to offend, you have managed to put out a "reasonable" arguement for whatever the sp was all the way down to its current state based on whatever the fundamentals were at the time. the bottom line is that seo have consistently failed to deliver on anything they have promised and you have to seriously question whether they will ever deliver. the only crumb of comfort at the moment for any holders is that the macd's have turned positive for the first time in nearly a year but that could change very quickly.
Sharesure
- 11 Feb 2007 10:43
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Bosley, totally agree with your comment. Too many, including me, have been prepared to trust/believe in the past, and some of the present, mgt. They and we have been naive for different reasons. If this stock ever becomes more than a useful CGT loss to offset against profits elsewhere I shall be more than amazed.
The RF machine they demo'd to me at the factory late last year was slow.
They haven't updated on Starpol progress.
They have quietly omitted to say anything further about the Ciggy filter auction...
and on and on it goes.
kimoldfield
- 12 Feb 2007 10:37
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BBC1 have an interesting series this week, "Shopping the Supermarkets" 09:15 - 10:00. 'Our Food in Their Hands' was the start this morning; Sally Magnusson investigated claims that a certain major chain of supermarkets has sold substandard products that could be unsafe for public consumption. It focussed on one driver in particular who pointed out to his bosses that food was being delivered to stores in substandard condition and there were several cases in which frozen food had thawed and a couple of very serious incidents when frozen food was completely thawed and then re-frozen and delivered to store. The driver was eventually pushed out. He says he will not ever buy frozen food from the company again: that company is ASDA. The programme certainly put me off shopping there! Perhaps SEO should disassociate themselves from ASDA?!
Thursdays programme focusses on Green issues including packaging, may be worth setting your recorders for.
As for my investment in SEO, my confidence is returning, solely at this point because I have not seen any obvious signs of dumping be Schroders; this may not be the best way to base my judgement but it is my only one at thies point until I have some firm news from any source.
kimoldfield
- 12 Feb 2007 10:39
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I should add that Sally Magnusson did not base her programme on just one driver's views but on several of them plus the BBC's own filmed investigations.
greekman
- 12 Feb 2007 10:55
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Thanks for the info.
Unfortunately will be out Thurs am but will look forward to any updates re the programme. Video recorder broke, so cant tape it.
dawall
- 12 Feb 2007 10:58
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cynic if you do not think SEO will deliver and you have no interest investing in them why do you keep wasting your f----- time on an SEO BB. YOU NEED TO FIND SOMETHING TO DO WITH YOUR LIFE!
cynic
- 12 Feb 2007 11:02
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because i JUST LOVE the abuse from you misguided souls .... my only regret was not following my own advice and shorting at 3p
dawall
- 12 Feb 2007 11:07
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Do any of you believe that SEO will be pushing the Starpol and negotiations now totally on their own OR do any of you think Schroders (and maybe other funds with a large stake) will be actively involved with SEO in sharing their experience, providing some necessay muscle to negotiations and helping SEO deliver some major contracts?
When Schroders start to sell I will worry but for now for them to have invested and bailed SEO out they either believe Starpol is a definite (and commercially viable) step forward or their research analysts have not done their homework properly.
greekman
- 12 Feb 2007 11:13
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Dawall,
For what it's worth I feel SEO will push totally on their own, but the potential buyers obviously know Schoder and others are the backing.
garyble
- 12 Feb 2007 12:21
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IF Biotec has hit full capacity {20,000 tpa}, we were led to believe this would equate to "in excess of 44m revenue", of which 50% wuold be assigned to SEO. The interims stated a 2.6m revenue compared to 1.5m annual T/O, so we should be expecting a 300% improvement to T/O for 2006.
cynic
- 12 Feb 2007 12:24
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it's PROFIT that is the important number ..... T/O without that is a complete waste of time
PATISEAR
- 12 Feb 2007 12:28
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cynic ; 'SQUELCHED'
garyble
- 12 Feb 2007 12:37
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Absolutley right cynic.
Although, as everyone expects {hopefully}, the results will not be good. The cash burn should have reduced significantly from ~ 0.5m per month, needing a T/O of 6m to break-even. IF the good ship SEO now has a competent crew, the next interims {~Sept.} should post a profit.
In any event, there should be sufficient in the annual results to give us an accurate assessment of the state of the business for the near future.
EWRobson
- 12 Feb 2007 12:39
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Responses to dawall and bosley. I would not have expected Schroders to take any involvement in oprational matters. I would expect them to receive Board papers and have a represenative present; in other words a lead investment role as their active interest will be a comfort to other institutions. The speed of their commitment after the placing indicates that they were party to the placing in the first place and the placing was a success because they were involved. They will have been key players in the departure of White and Balchin and ensuring the new sales guy had the right credentials. Their first checkpoint could be progress by the prelims but, more realistically, perhaps six months into the 12 months they are likely to have allowed for the company to become established.
Bos has got a point - I have actually only commented when I have taken, lets say, a non-negative view of the company. I just don't think holders want to hear people attacking their investment. I got out at 7.75p and didn't comment again until we were in the placement stage and Schroders became involved. What you don't get, Bos, is that that put us onto a different playing field so that there is little point in carping on about history. OK, Sharesure's comment re the performance of Greenseal is very relevant; at one time our hopes were based on Greenseal but, following technical problems, it has clearly run into performance problems. I have not seen any comment on reasons for the speed problems (anyone?). However, attention is focussed on Starpol and other Biotec products. Just as Greenseal had potential multipliers because of intellectual property licencing so there are multipliers in scale for what is essentially a commodity but again protected (to what extent?) by copyright.
For those looking at Stenalco for the first time, it is wise to understand the background. But it is fair to say that the key 'management rating' criterion has moved from very negative to neutral (or 'awaiting assessment'). The main strength remains technical innovation whilst we can only hope that they are putting their product commercialisation and marketing house in order.
Eric
zscrooge
- 12 Feb 2007 12:49
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Eric, when will you buy back in?
EWRobson
- 12 Feb 2007 13:00
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zscrooge I have a pot, not that big, which is in cfd's where I see short-term upside (currently in AZM and JR. - Just Retirement). I have my eye on the Prelim date because I don't think any announcement is likely before then. Even then it may just be a confidence building exercise. The fundraising has bought them time and they need to tackle the whole exercise professionally. The answer is not particularly helpful: the most likely timing is when I have developed a margin on the cfd pot. By the way, I have put Champion Investor money in!
Eric