< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

hahaha!
no, this is a very nice villa which we rent every year
it's actually someone's private house and we have now become quite good friends with the owners, though fortunately they do not impose themselves on us when we are there

AFR now below 150 , what a bloody pain this share is , please someone make a bid nothing else seems to take the price up to all those brokers target prices. even when the price rockets up its not up for long, am looking for 170 as a base price.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/

Look at sales for the quarter - they are down, but they say there is "cost recovery".
They do not seem to have given more details on this , which is a pity.
Earnings per share for quarter are doubled, I think mainly as a result of big tax reduction.

I also do not understand why it is down this morning.
A better explanation from the Management re sales would have been useful, or even a hint that dividend payments are not forgotten.
It is probably worth much more than 150p share, looking at PE ratio's etc, but if only management would be more proactive regarding investor relations, rather than their own massive salaries.

I own the shares in at 153p

I feel / felt the same as you guys, so in frustration I decided to trade the shares rather than hold and hope for capital growth. Good luck to holders, but maybe it might be worth considering trading some of your holding in order to realise a little profit along the way? A very frustrating company though, imo.

Morgan Stanley note today (house).
"1Q production was temporarily impacted by planned field upgrades (Ebok/Okoro). However, additional production from the Ebok CFB Ext. wells should drive a strong 2H rebound in volumes. With self-funded, oil biased production growth in Nigeria and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, we stay OW.
Planned downtime impacts 1Q: Ebok CFB Ext. installation and Okoro maintenance impacted 1Q production. Assuming normalization elsewhere, we think Ebok would need to rebound to c40-45kboed in 2H14 (65-75% net effective) to reach group FY14 guidance of c40kboed. The 2H14 production ramp-up from the new CFB Ext. wells could drive this recovery, we think.
New Nigeria developments on track: Okoro East (further field development) and Okwok developments have received formal approval. Plus, with the Okwok jacket on its way to the field, we estimate both are on track to add c11kboed (net) new oil production in 2015.
Ogo and Aje survey results to illuminate the upside:Having completed the data acquisition over the blocks containing the Ogo & Aje discoveries, processing is now underway. Ogo JV partner, Lekoil (non-covered), had previously indicated a discovered resource update could follow while identifying additional drillable opportunities.
Tax credit moderates higher 1Q14 costs: Despite lower production (-25% y/y), cost of sales (both DD&A and opex) was largely flat y/y (-4%), implying a substantial (+30%) y/y increase on a /boe basis. The PAT impact, however, was entirely offset due to a $16m tax credit. FY14 capex guidance unchanged at $845m.
Upside to Core NAV and attractive financial metrics:We see 4% upside to our unchanged 160p/sh Core NAV, which compares to the sector already trading at a c.10% premium. Moreover, Afren trades at c.3x 2014 P/CF, a large discount to the sector at c.8x. Ogo appraisal, Ebok Deep and South Ufon are in 2H14."

20 May

Canaccord...

145.00

Hold



20 May

Westhouse...

180.00

Buy

Oil producer & explorer Afren (AFR) saw its pre-tax profits slide from $153.9 million (91.45 million pounds) to $49.6million (29.5 million pounds) over the first quarter of the year as it suffered at the hands of lower oil prices and a smaller share of production and liftings from its Ebok field project. Looking ahead, the company re-affirmed its intentions of making progress with the Ogo discovery, offshore Nigeria, after it has already completed a 3D seismic survey on the site. Broker Westhouse Securities responded by re-iterating its "buy" recommendation and 180p target price on the shares. The shares were down by 8.8p to 145.3p.

RPT-Fitch Affirms Afren at 'B+'; Outlook Stable
May 29 (Reuters) - (The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Afren plc's Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Outlook is Stable. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this release.

Afren continues to generate solid operating cash flows, which are sufficient to finance its ambitious exploration and development programme. In the past the company has demonstrated its ability to meet ambitious production targets as it significantly boosted oil output in Nigeria in 2012 and 2013. Afren's profitability is supported by the tax holiday in place at Ebok, its largest producing field. However, Afren's production remains highly concentrated, which gives rise to elevated geological, country and tax risk, and its scale of operations is small. We view the possible oil industry reform in Nigeria as a risk, as its timing and key parameters, including tax implications, are unclear.

These factors constrain Afren to the 'B' rating category. This could be improved if Afren manages to substantially ramp-up production in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, where it has vast reserves.

Afren is a small-scale exploration and production (E&P) company with producing assets in Nigeria and Kurdistan. In 2013 its net production reached 47 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), predominantly liquids, which generated USD960m in EBITDA.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Strong Operational Performance

In 2013, Afren's net production (working interest including cost recovery) averaged 47mboe/d, up 13% yoy and almost 2.5 times higher than in 2011, which was reflected in our June 2013 upgrade to 'B+' from 'B'. This growth was mainly attributable to Ebok, Afren's largest offshore field brought on stream in 2011.

In 2013, Afren also had a sound 2P reserve replacement rate (155%) and maintained low lifting costs (below USD5/bbl). However, it had a relatively small proved reserve life (nine years overall; six years in Nigeria), typical for E&P companies of this size.

In 1Q14, Afren's net production went down to 35.5mboe/d as it recovered the initial investments at Ebok and its working interest in the field decreased. We expect Afren's 2014 net production to be within 35-40mboe/d, rebounding to 40-50mboe/d in 2015, mainly thanks to moderate output growth at Ebok and ramping up of OML26 in Nigeria and Barda Rash in Kurdistan.

Concentrated Production

Afren's production remains highly concentrated. In 1Q14, Ebok accounted for 73% of Afren's total production, and only 1% of oil was produced outside of Nigeria. Afren has significant 2P reserves in Kurdistan (114 million barrels, 40% of its total) and is hoping to boost production at its Barda Rash field soon. However, any significant progress there will only be possible if Afren gets access to a secure export channel. We now assume that Nigeria is likely to dominate Afren's output in the medium term. This concentration exposes Afren to elevated emerging market country and tax risks.

Tax Holiday Benefits Cash Flows

Oil companies are generally heavily taxed in Nigeria. They pay substantial royalties and are subject to the Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), which normally varies from 50% to 85% of the bottom line. Afren's Ebok field is exempt from paying PPT until May 2016, which significantly benefits Afren's cash flows and should allow it to finance new projects, while keeping leverage relatively moderate for the 'B' rating category. The company believes that the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), if finally passed by the local parliament, should not affect the tax holiday. At the same time, we believe that the proposed oil industry reform creates some uncertainty over Afren's future tax payments and makes its cash flows less predictable, since the reform's key parameters have not been finalised. The PIB, which calls for an increase of the government's revenue from the sector and changes in taxes and royalty structures, has been debated since 2009 and re-drafted several times. We have no views regarding the timing of the bill's passage into law.

Country Risks Remain

Afren is exposed to high emerging market country risks as its operations are concentrated in Nigeria (BB-/Stable). Historically, development of the oil and natural gas sector has been constrained by instability in the Niger Delta, with local groups often attacking companies in the area leading to shut-in production, as well as by oil bunkering, or theft. Afren is less vulnerable to these risks as all of its largest assets in the country, excluding OML 26, are offshore. The company is also exposed to high regulatory and especially tax risks in Nigeria. Afren's entry to Kurdistan should partially mitigate these risks over time, but we will only be able to give the company credit for some geographical diversification when it manages to boost production outside Nigeria to more than 30%-40%.

Uncertainty Over Kurdistan

In order to monetise its massive oil reserves in Kurdistan Afren needs to get access to a secure export channel. In 1Q14 its Barda Rash field yielded around 500 barrels of oil per day, all sold domestically, and ramping-up production to above 5mboe/d may not be feasible without access to a pipeline. The central government of Iraq and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have been in a dispute over the regulation and taxation of the oil industry in Kurdistan, prompting Kurdistan to build an alternative 300mbbl/d export pipeline to Turkey, which was commissioned in 2013 but has remained mostly idle due to political concerns. We believe that the company's growth strategy in Kurdistan may be affected by highly unpredictable political factors and assume in our modelling that progress there will be rather slow.

Substantive Exploration Portfolio

Afren has a wide exploration portfolio, including seven licence blocks in East Africa. Its exploration activity has borne some fruit, in 2013 the company announced it made a significant oil discovery at the Ogo prospect in Nigeria, which can potentially enhance its reserve base and production prospects. Afren's relatively low proved reserve life relative to peers means that the company needs to constantly replenish its reserves, and the vast exploration portfolio may be helpful in this respect.

Solid Financial Profile

Afren now has a relatively low debt burden for the 'B' rating category. Funds from operations (FFO) adjusted gross leverage stayed at 1.8x at end-2013, and although we believe it may moderately increase on the back of high capital intensity, it should stay below 2.5x on a sustained basis under our conservative assumptions, including declining price deck and no substantial production upside. Afren can also be free cash flow negative in some periods. We do not expect Afren to pay any dividends in the medium term, as per its dividend policy.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action include:

- Net production exceeding 100mboe/d on a sustained basis.

- Production becoming less concentrated, with no single country accounting for more than 2/3 of the overall output on a sustained basis.

- FFO adjusted gross leverage below 2x on a sustained basis.

- Sustainably positive FCF.

- More clarity regarding the evolution of tax environment in Nigeria.

- Getting access to secure export channels in Kurdistan and ramping-up production at Barda Rash.

Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action include:

- FFO adjusted gross leverage exceeding 2.5x on a sustained basis.

- Net production declining and settling below 35mboe/d.

- Unfavourable tax changes in Nigeria having a direct impact on Afren's cash generating ability.

- Significant project delays and cost overruns.

SOUND LIQUIDITY

At 31 March 2014 Afren had no short-term debt, and cash of USD361m. In 2013, the company improved its debt maturity profile by issuing a USD360m secured bond due 2020 and partially repaying its USD500m bond due 2016 (currently outstanding: USD253m) and USD300m bond due 2019 (currently outstanding: USD250m).

LIST OF RATING ACTIONS

Foreign-currency Long-term IDR: affirmed at 'B+', Outlook Stable

Senior secured rating: 'B+'/'RR4'

Senior unsecured rating: 'B+'
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/29/fitch-affirms-afren-at-b-outlook-stable-idUSFit70229520140529?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector

cynic

Do you still hold now ? short term its a sell, long term
Kurdistan my turn out to be the best place to be ,, the Kurds and Turkey will protect the area and keep the oil flowing.

Anybody on here sold Afren today .

i sold some yesterday, merely to reduce exposure generally

I put a order in last nite to sell some at 145 , if it was 144 it might have been filled.

But this might start some buying, its what i had been thinking when i heard the first news from Iraq.


NigelWestM
12 Jun'14 - 09:27 - 358904 of 358905 1 0


This just in from Westhouse:

Yesterday all three stocks with material exposure to Kurdistan were materially down – Gulf Keystone (GKP LN, almost 9%), Genel (GENL, almost 7%) and Afren (AFR LN, almost 4-5%).

The reason for that was the fact that Sunni militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis, an extremist al-Qaeda splinter group), seized control of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, the capital of the province of Nineveh, situated in an area that includes the supergiant Kirkuk oilfield (Iraq) and the fields of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The attack is a blow to Iraqi PM Maliki, who has been trying to form a new government after his Shia bloc won parliamentary elections in April. Mosul is the second city lost to the extremist group (in January it was Fallujah, a city just near Baghdad) and the attack highlighted the fact that Iraqi security forces are being outgunned by the Islamist militants.

According to Erbil (KRG) governor, tens of thousands of residents fled to the relatively stable Kurdish region to the north. Atheel al-Nujaifi, governor of Nineveh province, was forced to flee Mosul as well and he accused Iraqi troops of abandoning their posts.

Our view

Kurdistan, as opposed to Iraqi army, has a well-trained and well-armed forces, called Peshmerga, and it has always been much more efficient when it came to fighting extremists. It is estimated that Peshmerga has 270,000 to 370,000 fighters while Isis has 3,000 to 5,000 fighters. In our view, Kurdistan has an advantage now. Iraq will cooperate with Kurdish forces to retake Mosul from Isis, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said June 11, Reuters reported. Baghdad is facing the possibility of losing control of large swathes of western and northern Iraq and needs Peshmerga to avoid it. Isis may not be able to maintain its hold on Mosul in the end, but Kurdistan now has an advantage in negotiating on the legal dispute over the export of its crude. Kurdistan now has two tankers with oil, but no firm buyer yet. The reason there is no buyer is because oil traders were warned they may face potential legal action if they buy the Kurdish crude, after Iraq filed an arbitration case against Turkey with the International Chamber of Commerce. But the reality of things is that Iraq's Central government is weak internally and has too many security and social issues on its hands. With attacks from the extremists, it will need help from Peshmerga and this could be a bargaining chip for Kurds. KRG has been consistently moving towards independent export and in my view, will continue to do so. Hence, Buy all three stocks while the share prices are weak but keep in mind that we prefer AFR (Buy; 180p/share) for long-term holding and GKP (Neutral; 125p/share) for a short-term speculative trade as maintain my view that it faces operational challenges.

Iraqi Kurdish forces say they have taken full control of the northern oil city of Kirkuk as the army flees before an Islamist offensive nearby.

"The whole of Kirkuk has fallen into the hands of peshmerga," Kurdish spokesman Jabbar Yawar told Reuters. "No Iraq army remains in Kirkuk now."

With all this going on in Iraq , i would have thought with Afren having such a large investment in Kurdishstan there would be more comments on this thread

kurdistan is not AFR's main play

Didn't say it was , but it seems to be what is holding the price back and it is a large investment risk.

sp hasn't really moved very much in months, or at least it feels that way

http://uk.advfn.com/news/DJN/2014/article/62634349

CEO suspended etc etc

have cut my losses and fast
thank goodness I slashed my holding a few weeks ago otherise that would have been very nasty instead of just ouch

Interesting , i wonder what that is about .