Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Agree there Haystack but the SDP did manage to cock it up for Labour for years.

does one assume Dil, that you'ld be more than happy for labour to get in with say <30% of the vote? ..... and no, i have no idea who polled what % of the vote in the last general election, and of course with a fptp system, the % has little bearing on the number of seats won

UKIP may cause problems for the Conservatives, but I think their effect will be shorter lived than the SDP. Hopefully, the electorate will see the Conservatives as the only chance of a referendum, which it is. Only last Saturday, Miliband said he would not promise a referendum. Labour could be painting themselves into a corner over Europe. Conservatives seem to be taking the right line. There is no point in them saying that they would leave the EU as 40% would either definitely or probably want to stay in the EU. By saying that there would definitely be a referendum they get the votes of the ins and the outs. Labour by saying no referendum only get the ins. UKIP are left with some of the outs. The size of that fraction will depend on whether the voters expect UKIP to have any power in the situation. Hopefully the Conservatives will regain many UKIP supporters that realise that UKIP cannot actually do anything about Europe.

cynic

A coalition with Labour would be very unstable unless they do a lot better than last time. The Libs will probably do worse. A coalition with Lab and Libs in the last election would not have lasted. The numbers were such that the Conservatives plus the NI mob could have voted down the government anytime they wanted.

less of a "wishful thinking" post of yours for a change :-)
very very difficult to predict of course, but assuredly the economy is improving even if the weather isn't
apparently there are now hugely more first-time-buyer mortgages being approved and if the disillusioned electorate perceives that there will indeed be limitations put on immigrants (how?) and a referendum on eu (bet the wording will be biased!), then the conservatives may just escape the noose

I think the way things are going cynic all parties will struggle to get over 30%. This will effect the Tories more than Labour but with the Libs probably getting whacked then it is possible that Labour could get a small overall majority.

And no I won't be happy because I want a referendum , I want out.

so will you be voting ukip or conservative?

I've found the table for the 2010 general election, but i'm afraid it won't print out in a decent format ..... however, it was as follows

Conservative - 10,706,647 = 36.1% (306 seats)
Labour - 8,604,358 = 29.0% (258 seats)
Lib/Dem - 6,827,938 = 23.0% (57 seats)
UKIP - 917,832 = 3.1% (0 seats)

Sundry other parties - Green, Sinn Fein, DUP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Alliance won 27 seats + 1 independent

Long way off yet cynic but doubt if I'll vote Tory because I think the Chancellor is a clown.

dil do what all my tory friends are going to do votE
UKIP FOR A FRESH START AND CLEAN UP THE UK FROM ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ONCE AND FOR ALL .

mark Pritchard says he is a right wing tory he is a wimp more labour than
most labour MPs

Oh gawd.. he's off again.

Dil - assuming you will actually vote, which i think is the case, then you have something of a problem ..... i take it that you are pretty much set anti-europe, so you could vote ukip, as no other party is set that way ..... however, if that then lets in labour though a split conservative vote, then you'll be totally stymied as there is no way labour will to get uk out of europe, and indeed, they are terrified even to allow a referendum on the matter

stan - i have never squelched anyone, so shall not do so even to the vilalge idiot .... i find the best way is just to skate past his page-cluttering nonsense

Well he certainly like a rant,.. don't you Tanks -):

Look at those figures and you can see UKIP's problems. The Libs got 23% of the vote and got 9% of the seats. It is very difficult to make an impact on the two main parties.

cynic , besides a blip when Blair tried to impose a London based candidate on our constituency and the local Labour candidate who should have got the nod resigned and stood as an independent and won , you could have Labour verses the rest here and they would still win.

I always vote though.

Haystack , problem is that if there is a small swing against Cons they lose a dispraportionate number of seats.

Dil - if sylvia hermon is your mp, as assuredly she must be as the only indie mp, then your comment that without her, labour would win the north down seat hands down (sorry!) every time, does look remotely correct - or is ulster unionist synonymous with labour?

As do Labour. That's why Thatcher got such a big majority. The ONLY way to get a referendum is to vote Conservative. It also has to be an actual majority for the Consetvatives as a Lib coalition would not accept it.