< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

The 1.2 billion of debt is a huge worry / problem

worth reading ST Biz section today ......
long articles on both QPP and vulnerability of small and med sized E+P companies, witrh particular mention of both TLW and AFR

From Mr Poshman on another board.

Afren
The breakeven points I've calculated below. Shows cash breakeven and income statement breakeven.

Price of oil 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00
Operating costs 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00
Royalty 10.80 12.60 14.40 16.20 18.00
Financing 5.81 5.81 5.81 5.81 5.81
Other direct cost 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Admin 3.32 3.32 3.32 3.32 3.32
PPT 1.13 2.62 4.11 5.60 7.09
Total cash costs 38.06 41.35 44.64 47.93 51.22
DD&A 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00
I/S breakeven 64.06 67.35 70.64 73.93 77.22
Cash profit / bbl 21.94 28.65 35.36 42.07 48.78
Profit / bbl (4.06) 2.65 9.36 16.07 22.78

Costs calculated on production of 33k bopd, admin costs of $40m / year, financing costs of $70m / year, royalty at 18%. PPT I calculated on Okoro and OML26 production but spread across all production to get a cost / bbl for 2015. The netbacks at $100 are similar to those shown in the HY presentation so I'm happy enough that I'm fairly close on these numbers.

So at $60 / bbl Afren will be losing money on their net production, but on a cash basis will still be generating significant cashflow after financing costs are paid for.

I'm expecting a revised capex budget for 2015 to be somewhere in the region of $300m (which will be paid for from production once hedging is taken into account). It may be a bit higher than that if they plan to take on more debt (and already signalled that with the Okwok facility, or they could use the facility and stockpile the rest in cash). Should be looking to defer any payments on the Ebok facility also.

A revised capex budget of $300m will still cover most of the Ebok development increases you would expect.

cp1 good point would make me think twice about investing.

NAV of $1.981bn and making a profit.

hTtp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11292837/Opec-willing-to-push-oil-price-to-40-says-Gulf-oil-minister.html

Nice pull back this am,+8%.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—The Libyan National Oil Company said on Sunday that the oil ports of As Sidra and Ras Lanuf have stopped operating because of fighting, according to media reports.

Militias from the city of Misurata attempted to seize control of oil facilities in the country’s east, and the ensuing conflict involved airstrikes by Libyan Air Force.

Libya declared force majeure on both ports, which protects them against claims from oil buyers for losses from the disruption. The latest skirmishes and closure of the oil terminals, which account for about 300,000 barrels of oil exports daily, are likely to add to further volatility in oil prices.

Nigerian oil workers go on strike
fuel being sold on the black market during a previous strike Fuel was sold on the black market during a previous strike

Nigeria's two main oil workers' unions have begun a nationwide strike, threatening to hurt the output of Africa's largest oil producer.

The unions, Pengassan and Nupeng, said the strike would continue until the government addressed its concerns.

These include the adoption of the delayed Petroleum Industry Bill, aimed at overhauling the sector and maintenance work on oil refineries.

The unions frequently go on strike or threaten to strike.

"We've commenced the strike. It will affect oil production, since all operations are on strike," Pengassan chief Babatunde Oke told Reuters.

However, an oil executive said the strike was not expected to affect output, because it would require the co-operation of large numbers of workers at production sites who would be unwilling to go that far.

"It's very difficult to shut them down, and once they do, it would take them a week to get them back up. They never do it. That's the last thing anyone wants," an oil executive told Reuters.

The BBC's Will Ross in Lagos said most of the unions' demands seemed "unrealistic, especially with an election looming".

"The refineries are not suddenly going to be fixed because of this strike. Some oil industry watchers suggest the unions are simply trying to force the government to pay them off and get a hefty Christmas present," he added.

A strike in September had little impact on oil production.

However, our correspondent says that if the strike continues for more than two days, it will mean people having to spend hours queuing at fuel stations and buying fuel for an inflated price on the black market.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30479898

Standard Life increase their holding to over 8%.
Now holding over 90m shares.

Yes i noticed that,8.127% in total,getting very te,pting now.

Yes i noticed that,8.127% in total,getting very tempting now.

Dropping like a stone at present?

15:05:20 33.77 6,293 AT 33.77 33.86 Sell 3,624,783 3,190,01

">

I expect 30p this week.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oyster-completes-its-drilling-and-coring-program-in-block-1101-madagascar-2014-12-15

Dec 15, 2014 (ACCESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Vancouver, BC / ACCESSWIRE / December 15, 2014 / Oyster Oil and Gas Ltd. ("Oyster" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that the drilling and coring operations in Block 1101 onshore Madagascar, in which Oyster holds a 10% working interest, are now complete.

As reported by the Operator, Afren PLC (AFR) ("Afren"), a total of four strategic locations on the Block, which measures some 11,200 Km2 (2.8 million acres), were successfully drilled and cored to an aggregate depth of 2,000m (6,500ft) with approximately 1,760m (5,720ft) of core samples recovered. Drilling at each of the locations successfully completed its respective technical objectives to assess specific aspects of the blocks petroleum systems.

Two of the core holes were drilled to depths of 650m (2,112ft) and 500m (1,625ft) adjacent to the 1902 coal borehole (Ankaramy-1) which had reportedly encountered "hydrocarbon shows". Cores recovered from both locations indicate the presence of hydrocarbons and potentially good reservoir quality over multiple zones.

Early indications provide further evidence of at least three different source rocks working across the Block, in Triassic, Jurassic and Cretaceous zones. Further detailed laboratory analysis of the cores will be undertaken during Q1 2015 to confirm the nature and extent of the hydrocarbons.

Michael Wood, President and CEO commented:

"These are encouraging results indicating the presence of hydrocarbons over several zones, reaffirming the oil potential of Block 1101. The joint venture has been working closely together to define and develop the exploration program for Block 1101, and we are looking forward to working with Afren on the drilling of a large exploration prospect which is planned for 2015."

Are TAKEOVERS already on the way?

REPSOL has announced is buying Talisman of Canada today for $8.3 billions cash

BRENT price

rumours are usually good enough to get the lemmings active :-)

I love a lemming .

Look at SEY post - previous - now that is a take over / deal making play ....

Afren Plc (LON:AFR)‘s stock had its “speculative buy” rating reaffirmed by FirstEnergy Capital in a research note issued on Tuesday. They currently have a GBX 130 ($2.04) price target on the stock. FirstEnergy Capital’s target price suggests a potential upside of 295.26% from the stock’s previous close.