rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Might be worth having a very small stake in the proceedings, then whichever way it goes the risk element is manageable. Cautious is good, but you ain't gonna get rich if you never take the plunge!!!

I was reading a book on past market bear markets, just to cheer me up. The two worst bear markets were of course the 1930s crash and the early 70s bear market. Now I like everyone else have no idea how long this current bear market will last or how harsh it will be. My guess would be about 1973/4 level, well thats what I will plan for anyway.

See below the year and percentage fall for the two bear markets in the 30s and 70s, and below I have tried to work out the low point today and duration if either was replicated.

1929 = -8%
1930 = -23%
1931 = -42%
1932 = - 8%
1933 = +55%

1973 = -15%
1974 = -26%
1975 = +38%

If 1930s figures were used it would mean a low of between 2400 & 2669 in 2010 then a 55% recovery to 4136 in 2011.

If 1970s figures were used it would mean a low of 4088 in 2009 then a 38% recovery to 5641 in 2010.

That's very interesting Spitfire - thanks.

Hope Harrycat didn't get too drenched when he took the plunge!

Well I would think we will see a relief rally when this financial package is passed, hopefully tonight.

where have you guys been? ..... it was all effectively done and dusted by about 17:00 ..... the bits of paper may not have actually been signed off, but the fact that Dow still finished +200, albeit that at one point it was +300, surely tells you something

I'm banking on it Spitfire - literally, as I have (uncharacteristically) left my FTSE position open, and I shall not attempt to stay up all night watching the screen either.

banked assorted Dow long profits over the phone .... nothing huge, but enough to pay for dinner for "'er indoors" and the rest of the family ..... i too have left some Dow and FTSE postions open and am happy to have done so, though had i been at home this evening, i may well have cashed them all

stupid US politicing! ...... oh well, i suppose passing the bailout package was all going too smoothly, and for sure it will still go through, but markets will be very uncomfortable today, that's for sure ....... at least i had a guaranteed stop-loss on my Dow, but the loss incurred is very annoying ...... FTSE is still open and shall contemplate

Good morning Cynic - it's good to see a man looking after his missus and the kids!

I'm tempted to leave my FTSE mini-contract running for now, though it is showing a loss currently. I reckon a deal will be done because it has to be done. What is the alternative? - doesn't bear thinking about.

And by the way, it's a pity we can't short HSBC!

i have just closed my FTSE albeit at an annoying loss ...... however, i absolutely agree with you, and may well reopen a position once the dust has settled, but only if i am around to monitor


PS .... went to Caprice (London) ..... it was OK, but don't bother ..... food adequate, service patchy and certainly not in the same league as Locanda Locatelli, which is exactly the same price.

I wouldn't guarantee a deal is done. Not the one the mkts want anyway. Any fudged deal will be a disaster for the mkts. I really hope I'm wrong but I've always had a bad feeling about this. Forget recession, we're getting pretty close to a depression.

All IMO

all will be revealed in due course, but it is hard to believe that even US politicians can be quite so dumb as to scupper something quite so critical that had already been broadcast as a done deal, paperwork excepted

You could well be proved correct dd. I suppose I don't like the idea of all that depression as it's too depressing for me, so I look for what I hope may lift the spirits...

for a properly balanced report go to cnnfn.com and read the article "Bailout talks in disarray" ...... it's too long to paste on here, but i shall print out for myself and re-read several times

Cheers. Talking of spirits Toya, I find whisky does the job for me.

Numbs the share pain anyway.

If the markets implode, it'll probably focus minds over the weekend.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

I'll get another bottle in then ...

Thanks Cynic.

I've swallowed my loss (not too big luckily) and have gone short on the ftse for now - should soon recoup my loss. It looks as though it could be heading to 5100 or 5058 or 5000 or lower... before perking up again - possibly only briefly, if/when a deal is done in the US.

I also feel the redundancies announced by HSBC will prove a negative influence on the markets today.

I'm in profit overall this week on the ftse (and so one should be!).

Just seen that whisky is on offer - thanks dd! But champagne is preferable

it rather looks as though my comment a day or two ago about the deal being struck at midnight on friday may be quite close to the mark ...... meanwhile, the markets seem to be comparatively calm and have recovered off their opening lows ..... probable general concensus that a deal will be done - as of course it will be ..... as DD commented, let's just hope that it is a sensible deal and not just a weak fudge