< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

Oil price slide

Oil-price-tumbles-through-55-barrier-sparking-equity-selloff

telegraph - Oil-price-slide-claims-another-scalp

oil is currently barely holding $50 and is very likely to slide further

OPEC meeting late Feb ...LSE

The Saudis have already started to act about
a week ago when they started to push up the
price of Saudi blend to the Asian market. It
sells at about $3-5 less than Brent. They will
probably have an OPEC meeting late Feb
with any agreed cuts in Q2. They will be aiming for their 2015 budget price of $80-82
(Brent $83-85) for Saudi blend.

posted lse/3i
hxxp://www.petroleumafrica.com/sapetro-purchase-boosts-afren-share-price/
Nigeria’s South Atlantic Petroleum Company (Sapetro) acquired an estimated 13% of Afren’s the shares as talks swirled around the potential takeover of Afren by another indigenous firm, Seplat.
Due to the recent drop in oil prices, as well as some corporate misdemeanors that led to the dismissal of some of Afren’s executives, the company has seen its share price take a dive making it ripe target for a takeover. The purchase of shares by Sapetro gave Afren’s share price a boost and the talk of a takeover by Seplat boosted the price even further.
Sapetro is looking to grow its assets beyond its current holdings in OML 130 in Nigeria, the Seme field in Benin, and a massive concession in the Mozambique Channel. The company also has acreage in Central Africa Republic. The firm has engaged the services of PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) to shop for assets and advise on value adding business strategy. The Afren investment is one of the several results of that engagement.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-04/maduro-travels-to-china-for-financing-opec-nations-for-oil-plan.html

From the Telegraph today:


Takeover target Afren drew attention on a day that saw plenty of action for oil shares.


The Africa-focused oil explorer surged in the run-up to Christmas on news that London-listed Nigerian rival Seplat, 11.375p lower at 128.625p, had made a preliminary bid approach. The predator has until January 19 to make a firm offer or withdraw under UK takeover rules, although on Tuesday there was speculation there may be developments well before then.


Shares in Afren surged as much as 1.7p, or 4pc, to a session high of 44.22p as rumours spread through dealing rooms that South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPetro) was eyeing a counterbid.


SAPetro, which was founded by former Nigerian defence minister General Theophilus Danjuma, has already shown an interest in Afren. The group acquired a 7.05pc shareholding in the explorer in the autumn, stakebuilding that at the time also spurred chatter among traders that it could be interested in bidding for Afren. Shares in the takeover target closed 0.73p cheaper at 41.79p.


Afren aside, oil stocks generally were in focus on another day of turmoil in crude markets. Early in the session, Brent tumbled below $52 a barrel for the first time in five and a half years, a drop that dragged energy shares lower.

extremely volatile today.....up a couple then down a couple

Oriel price target 40p.

HTTP://oilpro.com/post/9485/first-us-oil-company-files-bankruptcy-amid-oil-price-crash

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/05/the-real-question-about-fracking-after-oil-price-crash-when-will-people-stop-giving-these-companies-money/


Last sentence sums it up.

http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/42568/invest-oil-2015-forecast#.VLGm83uONZh
To see chart go to website above.
Goldman Sachs predicting $85 for 2015.
Bloomberg survey $82.
Fuures$59


Chart of the Week: The Future of Oil

by Rachel Gearhart, Managing Editor Saturday, January 10, 2015 Natural Riches Natural Riches
Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on google_plusone_share Share on print Share on email
future-of-oil

This week’s chart looks at oil prices from December 2012 through the end of 2014. It also does something quite interesting. It shows predictions out to June 2016. To create the chart, we looked at forecasts from Goldman Sachs, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and the futures market.

As you can see in the chart, analysts and Goldman Sachs forecast a strong rebound in oil prices.

Though no one predicts that oil will rebound to anywhere near its circa $110 a barrel price from pre-June 2014 drop, plenty of folks on Wall Street expect to see prices similar to those from September 2014. That’s good news for the sector.

The futures curve, though, is not as positive.

Remember, a futures contract is an agreement that allows a party to purchase oil at a predetermined price on a predetermined date in the future. The relatively slow price growth predicted by the futures market tells us that the folks actually buying crude oil or hedging its movements don’t see a significant move higher anytime soon.

Of course, after the week we just saw on the crude market, analysts may be anxious to revise their forecasts lower as the year progresses. In fact, earlier this week, Citigroup cut its average Brent forecast for 2015 from $80 a barrel to $63 a barrel. For 2016, it cut its forecast from $85 a barrel to $70 a barrel.

With so much movement in oil prices, it can be hard to make smart investment decisions. In a recent article, Dave Fessler said that the best way to hedge the volatility in oil prices is with a pipeline master limited partnership.

As the “tollbooth operators of the oil and natural gas transportation highways,” pipeline MLPs provide stability and had a strong showing at the end of 2014. Individual MLPs and funds that hold pipeline MLPs beat the S&P 500 every month in 2014. And with oil prices certain to stay volatile, they’ll likely do the same in 2015. This makes for an excellent investing opportunity as oil forecasts change.

If I'm not mistaken Afren has some of its production hedged at $95 us a barrel....that should help a lot...

2 POSTS TO CONSIDER?

rather a scary note from Oriel Securities
Afren lost 5.7 per cent to 39.4p after Oriel Securities downgraded to “sell”. The stock had been supported over the past month after Nigerian peer Seplat said it had proposed a merger, as well as by regular reheats of speculation that key shareholder SAPetro might make a counterbid.

But Oriel reckoned that, with Afren’s Nigerian tax break expiring in 2016, cash flow from current assets would not be enough to pay down debt.

“We are not convinced there is much equity value in Afren at $60 oil and still see it as limited at $80,” the broker said.
Afren could sell fields such its Ogo discovery in Nigeria and its Kurdistan acreage to prop up its balance sheet, Oriel said.

But if oil remains at about $60 a barrel, Ogo becomes uneconomical and Kurdistan would have a value of no more than $700m, equivalent to just 40 per cent of Afren’s debt by 2020, the broker forecast.

“From that perspective, the company has one of the worst defensive positions among its peers and we could see a scenario where the shares could lose the majority of their value (that is, no equity value) in a prolonged period of $60 Brent,” Oriel said.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I will never understand how anyone listens to the charlatan analysts all over the city. It's a buy when oil is mid 80's in October and a hold all they way through to late December with oil at 60.

Now she's a busted flush. Might as well pack up here guys, its all over.

23-Dec-14 AFR Oriel Securities Hold 1.25 1.25 Reiteration
30-Oct-14 AFR Oriel Securities Hold 1.25 1.25 Reiteration
20-Oct-14 AFR Oriel Securities Hold 1.25 1.25 Reiteration
15-Oct-14 AFR Oriel Securities Hold 0.00 1.25 DownGrade
13-Oct-14 AFR Oriel Securities Buy 1.25 1.25 Reiteration
01-Oct-14 AFR Oriel Securities Buy 1.25 1.25 Reiteration
22-Sep-14 AFR Oriel Securities Buy 1.25 1.25 Reiteration
27-Aug-14 AFR Oriel Securities Buy 1.25 1.25 Reiteration
18-Aug-14 AFR Oriel Securities Buy 1.25 1.25 Reiteration
08-Aug-14 AFR Oriel Securities Buy 1.25 1.25 Reiteration
07-Aug-14 AFR Oriel Securities Buy 1.45 1.25 Upgrade

one wonders if they or their clients have large short positions

Going from bad to worse.......when I think everybody thought this was heading for 200p including myself at one-time...

This didn't help and is going to knock confidence again:
"An updated Competent Person's Report (CPR) of Barda Rash, carried out as part of the Company's annual reserves review, is expected to show a material reduction to previously published estimates of reserves and resources, essentially eliminating gross 2P reserves of 190 mmbbls and revising gross 2C resources from 1,243 mmbbls to around 250 mmbbls.
The movement in 2P and 2C reserves and resources has been due to the 2014 reprocessing of 3D seismic shot in 2012 and processed in 2013, alongside results from the Company's drilling campaign. Overall, the reservoirs have not performed according to previous expectations and the approved Field Development Plan (FDP). The wells have produced higher water cuts than expected and the Company has encountered operational challenges associated with the drilling of difficult complex fractured reservoirs. Production from these reservoirs could potentially be achieved with the implementation of recovery schemes requiring significant capital expenditure, which may well be appropriate for a company with a different strategic focus. Furthermore, while recent results at the field have indicated the presence of light oil accumulations from the deeper Triassic Kurra Chine reservoirs, these have a high level of associated Hydrogen Sulfide (H2S), which would require significant capital expenditure to develop. In light of the above, the Company is now considering its strategic options for the Barda Rash field."

What a shocker.

and 50p t/o looks pretty remote too
the previous reserve figures have a strong smell of rotten fish

Well worth a punt at these levels imo,typical overreaction.

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