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Second ASOS Challenge (2AC)     

EWRobson - 20 Jan 2005 18:13

The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

bosley - 12 Jun 2005 11:12 - 281 of 315

ooooooooooooo it's neck and neck!!!! i have no idea about why agl has fallen especialy when there has been some good news flow recently and ,i think, more to come. i suspect it's a bit of a fake fall and that agl will climb again soon. wether it will happen in time to keep seb behind me , i don't know. anway, if seb does win , i will buy him a drink in donny! great work , eric, and i am pretty sure mam "borrowed" your idea. what a pity the prizes arn't the same. i would have been well up by now!!!!

Kivver - 12 Jun 2005 16:39 - 282 of 315

bgc - varisolve expected to be allowed to be trialed in the US very soon. Announcement could come this week. If it fails, big fall to come!

snakey - 12 Jun 2005 22:54 - 283 of 315

Eric, I hear what you say about PMD, but I really do believe they are going to crawl out of this hole. Their Programme Master company is the best money earner of all and (god forbid, it`s part of their sell off !! ) then I`m sure they have enough credibility etc to remain in the market. I know it seems iffy, but I am going in for another million this week and if this comes good I`ll take you, PTH, OG and Stockdog to Ireland for a long weekend`s golf. We`ll have to have a 3 and a 2 ball though, but we can mix it up over 4 games !!!!

ptholden - 12 Jun 2005 23:03 - 284 of 315

Thanks snakey, I don't even know who PMD are, but I'll gladly accept the trip. Now where is that research button?

pth

snakey - 12 Jun 2005 23:10 - 285 of 315

Eric, PMD are Profile Media and they were the first subject of your `downsiders` on 11th June. I`m not bein` smart, just to let you review their problems.

SEADOG - 13 Jun 2005 08:43 - 286 of 315

Eric,
As I said my three were picked solely on their 12 month trend line. Have read a little about GHH and they are leadrers in a small niche market, and are doing well but I don't hold any !!! SD

EWRobson - 15 Jun 2005 22:28 - 287 of 315

snakey: Great golfing offer! Hope it comes good. By the way, it was pth who queried who PMD are. I did research them before making the content so was aware of the Barclays Bank threat and the proposed sell-off action, which I hope is not the crown jewels. Monday's recovery suggests positive developments - if the odds are better thane ven on recovery then the upside is certainly larger than the downside (even though that ends in zilch!).

Eric

snakey - 17 Jun 2005 11:33 - 288 of 315

pth,
PMD have got rid of the millstone today and am expecting reasonable increase up to, and beyond, results at end of this month. would expect a positive statement from them as their finances should look a little healthier now.
hope you got some and hope my confidence proves correct !!

capa - 17 Jun 2005 12:05 - 289 of 315

NLR and WNN on a roll, lots more to come with WNN imo.

Any chance of extending the closing date Eric?

capa

EWRobson - 17 Jun 2005 19:51 - 290 of 315

SECOND ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

Pretty good week for the portfolio - up 3.9% for 16.3% overall, compared with 1.1% and 0.8% respectively for the small cap index. Some really strong moveers during the week. capa so delighted with WNN and NLR he has aked for extension of teh close-off date in a fortnight's time. He has moved up to 6th and has a certain attractive filly looking over her shoulder! Change at the top with bos knocked off his perch for the first time, I think, since week 1.

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value_ gain% wk20
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 23.75_ 108514 230.3 -2.1 BBSSUUW(137)
DGT_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.64__ 22848_ 128.6 42.2 WY(137)
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 167.0_ 9853__ 96.9_ 0.1_ K(137)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 676.5_ 34366_ 71.5_ 24.2 CDMM(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 93.5__ 7419__ 48.4_ 1.6_ O(151)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 189.0_ 6946__ 39.0_ 3.6_ A(151)
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 1025.0 6304__ 26.4_ 1.0_ P(151)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 291.5_ 6311__ 26.3_ -4.7 C(151)
WNN_ 268.5__ 1790___ 334.5_ 5988__ 24.6_ 14.4 C
MDW_ 9.09___ 247500_ 11.25_ 27844_ 23.8_ 15.4 JSVV(137)
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 386.0_ 5887__ 17.9_ 0.3_ P(151)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 21.0__ 23100_ 15.4_ -3.4 BEMS(137)
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 69.5__ 11190_ 12.1_ 3.7_ OO(151)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 139.5_ 5441__ 8.8__ 0.0_ B(137)
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 231.0_ 10857_ 8.7__ 4.1_ GH(151)
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 497.5_ 5323__ 6.7__ 2.1_ P(151)
ITR_ 7.81___ 110000_ 8.25__ 9075__ 5.6__ 0.0_ HH
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 202.0_ 5272__ 5.5__ -3.6 G(151)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 137.5_ 10533_ 5.4__ -7.4 JJ(137)
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 15.75_ 5182__ 3.7__ 1.6_ O(151)
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 252.5_ 4936__ -1.3_ 1.2_ M(173)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 12.25_ 4851__ -3.0_ 6.5_ I(137)
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 84.0__ 4830__ -3.4_ -2.9 K(151)
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 642.5_ 9638__ -3.8_ -0.8 DP(151)
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 20.75_ 23033_ -7.8_ 0.0_ LLLLR(173)
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 237.5_ 4596__ -8.0_ -4.2 G(151)
PDX_ 231____ 2165___ 210.5_ 4557__ -8.9_ -0.9 A(177)
CASH 142.25_ 3515___ 127.5_ 4482__ -10.4 4.9_ C(173)
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 225.0_ 8775__ -12.2 5.4_ DE(173)
GMC_ 19.125_ 52700__ 16.5__ 8696__ -13.7 20.0 TW
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 9.0___ 4230__ -15.3 -5.3 T(151)
SLV_ 11.625_ 40450__ 9.75__ 3944__ -16.1 0.0_ D
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 9.5___ 4038__ -19.1 0.0_ V(173)
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 6.625_ 3809__ -23.8 6.0_ Y(173)
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 122.5_ 3773__ -24.5 -6.8 G(173)
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 93.5__ 14932_ -25.3 0.0_ AIRR(173)
AEN_ 697.5__ 717____ 512.5_ 3675__ -26.5 2.5_ J
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 57.5__ 14651_ -26.8 4.5_ ZZZZ(177)
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 3.75__ 3216__ -29.4 -6.3 W
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 36.0__ 3530__ -29.4 0.0_ I(173)
SPS_ 50.5___ 39600__ 34.0__ 13464_ -32.7 -1.4 AIKK(173)
PET_ 53.75__ 9300___ 36.0__ 3348__ -33.0 0.0_ R(177)
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 10.5__ 6615__ -33.9 13.5 UU(173)
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 41.0__ 3292__ -34.1 12.3 H(177)
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.52__ 2971__ -40.6 160.0 Y(173)
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 4.125_ 2772__ -44.6 0.0_ V(173)
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 63.5__ 5280__ -47.2 -9.9 EE(151)
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 4.75__ 2532__ -49.3 -2.6 Y(177)
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 34.0__ 5056__ -49.4 -4.2 TT(137)
totals___________________ 511769.5 16.3_ 3.9
small-cap__ 2891.87 2915.8________ 0.8__ 1.1

Last week's disaster area, PMD, is this week's star with the sale of tehir loss making subsiduary, staving off their bankers. snakey called this one and is positive for the future (post 287).

snakey and I have also benefitted from a significant jump in DGT (42.4%)(formerly CFP). Letter from pth in Shares with a defensive response from John Marshall may have helped to trigger move, though volumes have not been large. stockdog has done a very good analysis of the potential results as their business as AIM NOMADs is pretty transparent. Much further to go.

Other significant movers are NLR (24.2%) and GMC (20%), presumably in the light of attention on the gaming sector, MDW (15.4%), WNN (14.4%) (see CAPA's note above) and, rising from the doldrums, KYS (13.5%) and DES (12.3%).

S 125.0 D 8.7_ H -11.0
B 121.3 K 7.1_ I -22.6
W 81.4_ Y 3.7_ E -22.8
U 62.7_ J 2.0_ R -22.9
M 39.5_ V -4.1 Z -26.7
C 26.9_ G -4.7 T -35.8
O 19.0_ A -7.0
P 11.7_ L -7.9

seb's move to the top is on the basis of cotinued strength in MDW; AGL needs news if bos is to repsond I reckon. My own move into a clear third place is gratifying, based on really good progress with both DGT and GMC. Come to think of it, an extension to end-July could give me the chance to catch seb and bos! lol!

Good headway by moneyplus, based on NLR. Just as well with capa overtaking optimistic and into 5th place. The other major move is by snakey - into positive territory based on PMD and DGT.

Its good to see some half the shares in the blue to match the weather. More optimism afoot.

Eric

p.s. ASOS prelims on 11th July. They are getting them out pretty quickly and I think their trading report will make very positive reading. BUY!

moneyplus - 17 Jun 2005 21:40 - 291 of 315

All in all a good week for the challenge. Have a good weekend all-I'm off to see my brand new first grand daughter born this morning in London, hope the weathers good up there it's been pretty poor in Devon so far. MP

EWRobson - 17 Jun 2005 21:52 - 292 of 315

moneyplus: getting jolly hot in the south east so bring the bikini. Congratulations on first grand daughter: name and weight? Second grandson due in a couple of weeks! EWR

ptholden - 17 Jun 2005 22:07 - 293 of 315

By the way Eric, if i had been around to participate in this challenge, I would have put the whole lot on DGT!!

Haven't got a clue what all the letters and numbers mean!

pth

EWRobson - 17 Jun 2005 22:14 - 294 of 315

Hoy, pth - that's being wise after the event! I accept you might have had a double portion but you would probably have been bested by the SEO guys.

The letters are the codes for the players in the game so you know who bought what. The number is the post reference where johngtudor gave a helpful TA on each share - couldn't manage DGT.

Eric

capa - 18 Jun 2005 00:22 - 295 of 315

Good job as ever Eric, personally a great day today with both NLR and WNN.

I know nobody else is in WNN but must stress the potential with this share, undervalued within the sector by a country mile and now in unchartered territory.

Off topic, may I suggest that you have a look at AVG which I believe is a potential Zulu (Slater fans will know what I mean) an overlooked gem imo.

capa

moneyplus - 18 Jun 2005 00:55 - 296 of 315

Thanks Eric--name is Madeleine Josephine Mary--that's a mouthful--weight 7lb6oz and good as gold I'm told. Little do they know she'll be firmly in control from now on! I'm in a similar situation as you re. pets as we recently lost 2 cats due to old age with a 3rd going downhill rapidly--we foolishly decided to replace them with 3 more! first to arrive was a fluffy white birman male--butter wouldn't melt in his mouth or so we thought. lovely temperament but into everything! we've had him for 5 weeks and then collected 2 burmese kittens which had been bred and kept in a garden shed!! all hell broke loose when they arrived spitting bundles of fury--we needed gardening gloves to get them out from under the settee!! one week later normality is beginning to return, they've decided the dogs aren't going to eat them, we're a good source of food and just maybe they'll occasionally play with the poor birman so they gallop around like greyhounds while he tries to keep up! A grand daughter will be a piece of cake after all that!

seb190774 - 18 Jun 2005 01:03 - 297 of 315

hi guys
told you that when mdw starts to rise............ Anyway nothing is done yet and the next couple of weeks will be very eciting. The best will win!!!!!!!!

regards to everybody

sebastien

moneyplus - 18 Jun 2005 10:51 - 298 of 315

NLR is out of the starting blocks for a late spurt!!

EWRobson - 18 Jun 2005 15:48 - 299 of 315

seb: great to see you again! Obviously been keeping quiet waiting for the spurt for the tape. Suspect you'll stay in front.

moneyplus: Big kiss for madeleine josephine mary from all of us. Thanks for description of scenes of marital bliss. Expect you relate to the cat jokes - was it the DGT thread or maybe NML - espeially the one ablout the girl, the fire engine and the screeching cat!

Eric

moneyplus - 18 Jun 2005 19:26 - 300 of 315

!! definitely the one where you are instructed on how to give a cat a pill!
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