> http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200804020701443743R
http://www.imperialenergy.com
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200807040700042799Y




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img src="http://charts.moneyam.com/Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=IEC&Size=700&Skin=BlackBlue&Type=2&Scale=0&Span=YEAR1&MA=&EMA=&OVER=&IND=&XCycle=&XFormat=&Layout=2Line;Default;Price;HisDate&SV=0">
cyril

i did not understand where the bit about enlarged share capital came from nor the reason why IEC should offer a huge slab at a discount ..... do you?

meanwhile, i suspect the shares will now suffer some reaction along with the rest of the markets, even if only because sp has had such a strong run recently that profit-taking may easily outweigh new buyers

Theirs a write up in the Moscow Times business section
http://www.themoscowtimes.com
cyril

bought back my top-sliced bit this morning .... would like to see sp back above 1350 at close - see chart - but only marginally below now

Gazprom believed to be the interested party?
Looks a shrewed move,i suppose the burning question at what price? However in
the long term, stability will undoubtably be a major advantage and with it a revaluing of the reserves(perhaps they believe D&G's figures?).Don't know what it will open up tomorrow but i will be very interested to find out.
business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article2799357.ece
Don't know why but this linked worked at first,need to type in manually or goto
the business section timesonline.

cyril

Kicking some figures around,
51,121,161 shares in issue. Now using the figure 173m(Times)
At 12/share(discount) 173/12=14,416,667
51,121,161+14,416,667 = 65,537828
Present M/Cap = 13.31*51121161 = 680,000,000.
680m + 173m = 853m/65,537828 = 13 per share
AT 10/share we get 68,421,161 shares(17.3m + 51m)
853/68.4m = 12.5 per share
Against the reduced share price, what will the security given from such a deal
mean? And of course theirs the question of the reserves(which seem to have been manipulated recently?),will the D &G become more exceptable and at what value
per barrel (at present little more than $1 a barrel)?
Time will give us the answers, but we're in for a very interesting period.
cyril

Hope this link works,http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fc83785c-8b14-11dc-95f7-0000779fd2ac.html
cyril

Looks like the market approves,trading around £14.
cyril

glad i bought back my top-sliced section a few days ago, even if at 70p more than i sold it off for!

Nice to see it up. But i would like to see larger volumes.

am i not right in thinking that if someone wants to buy/sell a large slab and it is only partially filled, then that transaction will not show up until completed?

I believe your correct and i also think it can be delayed by 1 hour.
cyril

I think Christmas as come early for us. Just to think Cynic,back when i first brought in at 10.60 you werent a fan.You must be their number supporter now LOL 8-)

at least i am not too proud to change my view and say so and why

Imperial had planned to raise 173m before Gazprom came along. The marekt cap at the time was approx 680m so there would have been a dilution of 20%.

That dilution will still happen if the Gazprom deal goes ahead as that is how they will raise the shares for them to buy. There were rumours of Gazprom only paying 9 per share, but I don't know what's happened to them. That might just have been scare mongering. Before the recent rise the shares were stuck at 11, so a 20% dilution gets you near to 9. The question is now whether 15 at current prices or 12 at diluted prices is a good price.

Most of the medium sized oil stocks have risen 50% since the beginning of the year. Imperial has risen over 100%. Now, they've had a good discovery in that time - although the estimated reserves are disputed by the Russians - which might make the rise justified - and of course, far be it for me to accuse the russians of lying and playing games. The ruskies are obviously interested in something, so I guess the reserves are potentially as large as Imperial say. (Put it this way - if they weren't, I'm sure they'll be talked up once Gazprom is involved......)

A counter bid or offer from another oil & gas company isn't going to be forthcoming given Imperials operations being in Russia and so the sp over the next few weeks will deppend very much on hhow much of a bargain Gazprom were hoping to get. If they're feeling bruised by the recent increase, I suspect Gazprom will be up to its old tricks.....

Gazprom will ask for (demand with menaces!) and get a pretty hefty discount, for they carry obvious and very significant clout .... with that in mind, any discount given may easily prove very cheap insurance into the future, and of course it will be in Gazprom's own interest to ensure that IEC succeed.

cynic - I think you're absolutely right. Gazprom will come in heavy handed and demand a big discount if Imperial want to continue operating in the former soviet states.

I'm hoping that if they do get a 20% net stake in the company at 9 a share it doesn't water down the share price too much as they clearly wouldn't want to buy their way in unless there was something of major interest there already....

I'm sitting on a 32% profit so I'm tempted to take profits at the moment with the pending dilution - but this has got to be a good play in the mid to long term....

suggest setting a trailing stop, guaranteed if pos .... that said, there is never any harm in taking partial or even total profit

mindseye
If you go back to my earlier post i have thrown some figures up
in the air with regard to the effects of Gazprom getting its slice on the cheap. At the moment however i believe the momentum is with IEC so i would expect the SP
to go higher,certainly in the short term. What happens after that will, we will have to see?
Putting a value on IEC is a bit of a lottery in so much that the tax they have to
pay is 90% above something like $27 a barrel, and i believe it could be as high as 96%. If so for every $1m they would recieve $40,000,this works out at near to $17 a barrel(at present) profit.Whereas you might expect the P2 reserves to be worth $5 a barrel, it would imo be lower, maybe $3.
At present D&G have put P2 reserves at 802mbo and will report back in spring with a lot more data, so i think we could see 1billion barrels of oil P2. With this
figure you get $3billion or something like 1.4 billion M/cap , or 20 a share for
the larger company for Oil reserves alone?
Only time will tell as to what happens once news of what Gazprom actually pays
per share.
cyril

sorry double post
cyril

have taken my own advice and top-sliced again for nothing continues up (or down) in a straight line ..... however, at 15.00, that still leaves me overweight