dreamcatcher
- 03 Sep 2014 20:22
- 301 of 1268
/
dreamcatcher
- 04 Sep 2014 20:03
- 302 of 1268
/
dreamcatcher
- 06 Sep 2014 07:56
- 303 of 1268
/
dreamcatcher
- 06 Sep 2014 22:21
- 304 of 1268
/
goldfinger
- 06 Sep 2014 22:46
- 305 of 1268
DC.....this above looks a corker.
Going to do a bit more checking of the fundies. Cheers.
dreamcatcher
- 07 Sep 2014 07:30
- 306 of 1268
/
aldwickk
- 07 Sep 2014 20:35
- 307 of 1268
Why did the share price fall on June 30th ?
dreamcatcher
- 07 Sep 2014 21:59
- 308 of 1268
/
dreamcatcher
- 09 Sep 2014 17:31
- 309 of 1268
/
goldfinger
- 09 Sep 2014 18:04
- 310 of 1268
The I. C. article;
Buy ahead of Clinigen re-rating
Bull points
High margins Undervalued Experienced management Strong order book
Bear points
Lumpy revenue stream Disappointing 2013
After listing in late 2012, pharmaceutical group Clinigen (CLIN) fast become the darling of London’s junior Aim market. The listing price – 164p
– surged to 690p early this year but some disappointments in half-year results in February led to a substantial share price fall. But with strong full-year numbers looking likely when the company reports its figures later this month, we think there is now considerable ground to make up on the upside. Investors therefore have a second opportunity to buy the stock, this time at a significant discount to 2013 levels.
There are two main reasons Clinigen won rapturous support from investors when it arrived on the London Stock Exchange. The clinical trials market into which Clinigen supplies third-party material is growing at about 15 per cent a year. Secondly, Clinigen’s management had a proven track record in understanding the complex regulation surrounding specialist access to certain drugs – encompassed by its global access programme (GAP) division.
But at the start of 2014, when Clinigen released half-year results for the six months to December, concerns started to build about the shares overheating. The clinical trial supply (CTS) division – responsible for more than 64 per cent of first-half sales – revealed a 13 per cent fall in sales to £39.5m, and it didn’t help that management admitted that a near four percentage point rise in the CTS gross profit margin – to 16.5 per cent – was ‘unsustainable’. Consequently, the shares crashed 17 per cent on the morning the news came out.
But the company still holds substantial promise for future growth and increasing shareholder returns. The specialty pharmaceuticals division, which provides a solid backbone and accounted for just over half gross profits for the first six months of the year, is still in an early stage of development, with management aiming to add six new drugs over the next three to five years. Meanwhile, the CTS segment is forecast to grow 5 per cent in 2015, and GAP, which accounted for 16 per cent of first-half sales, continues to be Clinigen’s fastest-growing division.
Encouragingly, chief executive Peter George says the lumpy nature of the CTS business and the drop in half-year sales was solely the result of strong comparative figures last year, which included a large number of low-margin anti-viral study sales. He also believes an overdependence on CTS revenues as the bulk of sales will soon be a thing of the past.
A bullish trading update released at the end of July has already begun the re-rating of the stock. In it, Clinigen said it expects like-for-like sales growth of more than 7 per cent for 2014, with total revenues of no less than £126m. The GAP division is expected to report 50 per cent sales growth, and CTS should see revenues up more than 11 per cent in the second half compared with the first half.
Continued improvement in gross margins across all the divisions also contributed to a 17 per cent improvement in underlying cash profits as at the end of June, suggesting full-year results should beat analysts’ expectations. Such a solid performance could be down to lower operational costs, and the keen prices paid for two newly acquired speciality pharma drugs: Cardioxane and Savene. And management says there is also potential in Clinigen’s new business pipeline for CTS and GAP, which broker N+1 Singer puts at about £200m.
Come the 2014 annual results on 24 September, investors should glean further clarity on Clinigen’s new business pipeline and how the new speciality pharma products will help drive growth. This could provide the re-rating catalyst the stock needs. We think investors would do well to boost their stake in Clinigen while the shares trade on 16 times 2015 earnings. Buy. HR
After losing its ‘hot stock’ status at the time of its half-year results in February, Clinigen looks set to re-rate
dreamcatcher
- 11 Sep 2014 16:59
- 311 of 1268
/
dreamcatcher
- 11 Sep 2014 19:43
- 312 of 1268
/
dreamcatcher
- 12 Sep 2014 18:43
- 313 of 1268
/
goldfinger
- 13 Sep 2014 02:36
- 314 of 1268
Looks a solid play.
dreamcatcher
- 14 Sep 2014 22:08
- 315 of 1268
/
dreamcatcher
- 15 Sep 2014 20:05
- 316 of 1268
/
ExecLine
- 16 Sep 2014 12:48
- 317 of 1268
It will be a good thing to be aware of the following, if the anticipated 'Yes' vote doesn't actually happen and we get a 'No'.
telegraph.co.uk
French bank warns: Stay away from these 20 stocks ahead of Scotland vote
Societe Generale has warned investors to avoid 18 UK companies and two French firms ahead of a vote on Scottish independence
by Peter Spence Sept. 15, 2014
Edinburgh is home to dozens of popular investment trusts - but most of their shareholders live in England
A 'Yes' vote this Thursday “would trigger another phase of underperformance” in Scotland exposed stocks, said Roland Kaloyan, of Societe Generale Photo: AP
France’s second biggest bank has warned investors to stay away from UK equities ahead of the Scottish referendum, singling out 20 European stocks to avoid.
Societe Generale’s basket of Scotland-exposed stocks has already underperformed the FTSE 100 by 8pc in the year-to-date, suggesting that “a risk premium is already emerging”.
18 of the 20 companies identified are based in the UK, while two are French.
A 'Yes' vote this Thursday “would trigger another phase of underperformance”, said Roland Kaloyan, of Societe Generale, while “some companies could benefit from a weaker currency in the long run”.
The list includes a number of grocers and other retailers which see a considerable proportion of their sales come from Scotland, along with banks Lloyds and RBS, both of which have Scottish brands, and are incorporated north of the border.
“A Scottish exit would probably trigger a major political crisis with the shakeup of the UK’s political landscape”, said Mr Kaloyan.
Other companies that could lose out include property, media, oil, software, telecoms, and insurance firms.
Societe Generale identified 13 stocks that could benefit from a weaker pound, as analysts suggested that a Yes vote would see the value of sterling fall further.
The stocks in this basket have all shown a 90pc correlation with sterling’s strength against the dollar.
BAE Systems featured in both lists. The company does £1.7bn of sales in Scotland, and has 3,500 employees in the country, many of which work on naval shipbuilding at Rosyth.
20 stocks investors were warned to avoid:
BAE Systems
Lloyds Banking Group
Royal Bank of Scotland
Diageo
Pernod Ricard
J Sainsbury
Tesco
WM Morrison
Standard Life
British Sky
BG Group
Technip
Hammerson
Intu Properties
Marks & Spencer
Next
Sage Group
BT Group
Centrica
SSE
13 stocks that could benefit from a weaker pound:
BAE Systems
Barclays
HSBC
Standard Chartered
SABMiller
Smiths Group
Unilever
Reckitt Benckiser
Burberry Group
WPP
ARM Holdings
British American Tobacco
Experian
dreamcatcher
- 16 Sep 2014 16:34
- 318 of 1268
/
dreamcatcher
- 17 Sep 2014 06:39
- 319 of 1268
/
dreamcatcher
- 18 Sep 2014 16:44
- 320 of 1268
/