The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

Woodie,

Yep. That would be my call. Given that sentiment doesn't change universally overnight, the more optomistic investors will be sucked in to buying what looks like cheap stock, probably hoping to average down their losses. In my opinion anyone think of doing so should really try and resist the urge (difficult I know). If you buy now and the rally continues, you might make back your losses, but if it drops you will definetly compound them. Staying out until the direction is clear, at least protects your money, and if it turns out to be a sustained rally, you'll eventually recover your losses anyway.

Strawbs.

strawbs well said

Don't suppose anyone will listen though. I remember a number of my friends during the tech crash. Some seemed to think buying a stock which had already fallen 50% was a good way to double their money..... When they didn't, they seemed to think it was all very well me being right with hindsight, but if I was wrong I would've lost a fortune (by not buying myself)..... Why people think a fortune on paper is better than real money in the bank I'll never know! Still I could be wrong I suppose, but I sleep better at night this way......

Strawbs.

10940 is the number to watch for on Dow ..... That needs to hold

Dow close 11014.5

StB,
I think there is an important difference between the tech bubble and now. The majority of the tech companies were over valued had little possibility of positive cash or had astronomic PEs. The market followed the Tech shares up in a general madness. Now the average PEs I think are not removed from "true" cash value. Cash flows seem reasonable. The uncertainty is "oil" prices and instability in the middle East, which is mainly due to the work of the two messiahs Bush and Cohort Blair. I think it is a very choppy market and have thought so for months, but it interesting to see the balance of directors buying to selling and the also some of the large institutional buyings.

I think it is time to avoid smaller companies with poor earnings, or those which are likely to be looking for more cash in the near future or those who constantly promise but don't fulfill.

Although it has been pointed out that the future markets in America are pointing to some further minor retracement, I am again long at the moment, but if I was slightly better organised I would prefer to be a watching rather than holding over the next month or two.

Of course you could always hedge your investments by taking the odd overnight spreadbet short on UKX (or another index), Fred. It might occasionally ease the pain next morning.

;-))))

I wasn't actually comparing the current activity to the tech crash. I was just saying that sometimes people get too carried away with the old price of a share, and assume that a large drop is a buying oppertunity, when in fact it could be a warning that underlying fundamentals (not the share but the market) have changed for the worse. I still think we'll see another sell off, it's just a case of what triggers it and when it happens. Definetly some choppy times ahead. In my opinion anyway....

Strawbs.

I think Strawbs is right .... Peeps have been badly shaken up and for sure $ interest rates have further to climb ..... how badly that unsettles the market remains to be seen

I had that nervous feeling again today that things are about to go pear shaped, which made me remember this thread from last year..... Anyone else think another major correction is just around the corner, or is it me being paranoid?

Strawbs.

not sure about major, but am currently short of FTSE with a modest target of 6285, tho may extend that if feels right ..... seemingly perversely perhaps, am long Dow.

overall, still feel FTSE is heading north, but decent correction certainly overdue

Not sure if my candlestick analysis is up to scratch yet, but I keep seeing bearish indicators everywhere. I'm starting to wonder if last years "mini correction" was just a dry run, and didn't scare people enough to follow through, because fundamentally people still seemed rather "bullish". I'm wondering if almost a year on, another correction might just turn into a full on down trend, which is why I was curious how people felt at the moment. Oh well. Guess I'll be liquidating the portfolio again. :-) Think you should do OK with the FTSE short. I'd probably go the same way with the DOW (short), but I don't really look at the American market, so maybe your right.


IMHO...

Strawbs

That'll be the sell off I was waiting for then..... :-)

Strawbs.

lovely wasn't it! .... was nicely short and have just closed that position .... whether one now buys at this level is another matter

Been liquidating some of the portfolio today. Think I'll sit on the sidelines again for a while. I hope the financial news out of the States later is OK, otherwise I can see this sell off accelerating....... Think I need to have a look at spreads/cfd's again. :-)

In my opinion, do your own research..... etc.

Strawbs.

have taken plenty off the table ...... like you, will watch, but actually think Dow mor likley to recover than fall, though there may still be say 150 points to go there before a solid bounce

Totally liquid again now. My worry is another leverage driven slide again like last year. Things could get very messy if everyone heads for the door at the same time. Think the dow and the next trading session in asia will set the direction.

In my opinion, do your own research.

Strawbs.

I've taken some profits here - more comfortable watching this from the sidelines. Kept open some positions still showing (relative) strength, but ready to pull the plug on any weakness. Will keep the powder dry for another day.

Steve

Sounds sensible. Looks pretty messy out there at the moment.

If this is a leverage led slide it'll get worse the lower it goes. The sell off in China has probably caused some margin calls to kick in. That means assets elsewhere are probably being sold to cover those calls, which means margin calls for others, more selling, hedging with shorts, more margin calls, and so the spiral continues until enough people go bust and things stabalise.......Then if the Yen carry trade starts unwinding too........Yuk.

In my opinion, do your own research, etc.....

Strawbs.

All very reminiscent of last year with the miners leading the way. Can always buy back in another day, when Mr Market regains his equilibrium.

Steve