< "> edit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

personally, i think it's a lousy game to try to play, though entertaining to watch
you may need to prove how butch you are or at least pretend to be; i don't

and yes you're right about me thinking of shorting, but as i said at the time, probably shan't
even so, i feel the fundies behind this stock and the prospects do not remotely support the current pirce

Taking the pi..

re - butch

you are out of touch, the word use this days is "MACHO"

re - prove

do you feel the " balls of steel" ? just to make sure

they say the feeling is "cool"

Mr Cynical and Mr Mentor
Perhaps we should all try and stay with known facts
rather than feelings, and one upmanship.
That may relieve us of a lot of unconstructive discussion

i feel the fundies behind this stock and the prospects do not remotely support the current price


concise enough for you i trust, and no different from what i have been saying for a while ..... i may be proved wrong, but then so are bookies a lot of the time

Why ?

re -Perhaps we should all try and stay with known facts

yep
I just work with words of - Mr Cynical

merely repeating what i have said several times before

the company is swamped with debt
the price of extraction remains significantly(?) above the present price of either brent or wtl (take your pick)
there is no management worth a candle
there is no need for any bidder, should there be one, to offer more than a paltry amount which, so long as he can satisfy the bondholders to some degree, will probably be accepted
there is no need for any bidder, should there be one, to have the remotest concern for the interests of the PIs, so they'll end up with zero

sufficient?

Mr Cynic - I do not care one bit about what you "feel",
but now I can see your reasoned argument.

Thank you for enlightening me with your reasoned thoughts

you're more than welcome to disagree
unlike several on this site, i do not take umbrage with those that do

rekirkham

Take it from me there is some people over here that what they say on one side doe not go with the other
I have never took any notice of "Mr Cynical " positive or negative views as my point is he has mot much idea of shares though tries to convince anyone that he does

I will explain

his recent comment... that he will short it ( share price at about 7.50 to 8p ) next day is not high enough, today reach over 13p no action yet

now if he believe is going to "zero " sure one will short the stock at any price

therefor my conclution is .......... just " all mouth no trousers "

so no wonder that I take the Pi.. so often

-------------
He did not tell you above .........

many believe the assest are twice the debt
many of their production has been sold forward at $90
and is Brent equivalent the price they get ( the expensive one )

note : I have no position at this moment

i have no problem with you disagreeing with my view, but you seem incapable of so-doing without being personally offensive - just as you were as MRSI and subsequently menorca and one or two other aliases here

Plus there could be a placing ..

I more agree with mentor and i'm not blinded by the fact that i bought on the way down so am sitting on a huge loss (my own fault for not using my stop) ,i just think they will survive .

If it goes pear shaped then it's a bad start to my year ,i pulled in a decent percentage last year so will have to lump it and see with trading how soon i can break even .

jimmy b

thanks that you are on my side of the story

He is alone this days G F gone ( just before G F said ) the "cynic " stabbed him on the back ) he is very good at that when he can not win, the above post tells a lot
I only tell the truth but for the poor old man is difficult to digest it ,if one has a sick stomach to do it

paying back
POOR .... cynic .. alone at his old age the only posesion is the - BIG mouth -

re - personally offensive

look at the mirrow - Cy , reflec on what you see and say
howmany times you have been ofensive to posters
your favorite is ...." idiot" but there is a dozen more you use
you are in a bad shape with most, I only... with you ( for exposing your faults )

Brent oil price taking a rest for the last couple days
the uptrend of the last 4 weeks is taking a slow down trend again
4$ down from the top $62.50 intraday high recently
------------------ Intraday Brent Oil ----------------------------------------- 1 month ---------------

Has someone taking a SHORT when share price was above 13.50p earlier?.......

Yes a broker has come out at 4.15pm with Downgrade for AFR............. from 90p to 2p

Certaily one can not trust anyone this days, too many corruption around, not only the Nigerians, chinese, pakistany, the brokers sell their arse for a few dollars also.

19-Feb-15 Westhouse Securities Sell 90.00 2.00 Downgrade

note - i am not a holder

Cynic re your post 3447 - you write ..
1/ the company is swamped with debt
2/ the price of extraction remains significantly(?) above the present price of either
brent or wtl (take your pick)
3/ there is no management worth a candle
4/ there is no need for any bidder, should there be one, to offer more than a paltry
amount which, so long as he can satisfy the bondholders to some degree, will
probably be accepted
5/ there is no need for any bidder, should there be one, to have the remotest concern
for the interests of the PIs, so they'll end up with zero"

My view is as follows
1/ "The Co. is swamped with debt" - a large part of the debt seems to be long term
debt not immediately due for repayment, plus the October 9 month report shows
that Afren have net assets after all debt of about $1.9 billion.
Admittedly some of those assets are oil in ground reserve estimates which will
need to be recalculated, but none the less Afren seems to be far from insolvent, .
2/ Can you recall where you found out about the extraction costs ?
I have been trying to calculate it from the Oct quarterly report etc and get to about
$56 a barrel which is not good, but I think my figure is incorrect, and they may be
able to reduce that figure in the light of tighter margins and with cost savings and
targeted production increases. From where did you get your information ?
I would like to see the figures.
3/ "There is no management worth a candle" To me the ex chairman who is a qualified
accountant, and should know the legal regulations, has taken the helm.
He seems to be keeping us informed, and Afren is probably a better company for
not having a crooked CEO at the helm and a crooked Nigerian local advisor.
Some City advisers are presently supporting bond holders and management,
and maybe looking for a buyer of some Afren assets ?
4/ and 5/ I agree with you entirely.
If somebody is going to make an offer they are doing it for their own best interests,
and not as charitable gesture to Afren shareholders. Afren maybe better off going
it alone. My guess, for what it is worth, is that the price of crude may rise to $80
( to about the shale oil break even point ) after some months, when in the OPEC
members see more intertnal instability and they start screaming at Saudi

Just my own thoughts ................
( I have 100,000 Afren shares and am down a packet, so I am trying to be optimistic )

#2
i think i may have got that number from a morgan stanley analysis about extraction costs across the world
it was several weeks ago but may have a bash at finding it

i lied :-)
below is an adequate article, though it is dated

go to http://uk.businessinsider.com/crude-oil-cost-of-production-2014-5
you'll find a table and more there but it won't c+p



Think Global More: Oil Think Global
The Middle East Has A Huge Advantage In The Global Oil Market


MAY 13, 2014, 4:41 PM 2,826
The unconventional technology that enables us to extract oil from shale has triggered a boom in American energy.

While North American energy production has exploded, this doesn't necessarily put the the region on a level playing field as the mega-exporters in the Middle East.

One reason why the Middle East continues to be in a relatively comfortable spot is because cost of production is so low.

Morgan Stanley analysts recently included this chart of crude production costs. Onshore Middle East oil sites are much cheaper to tap than North American shale, which costs about $65 per barrel to extract. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing isn't cheap.

This is a huge advantage, especially as fluctuating prices often make production unprofitable for higher cost sources.

What amount is hedged for this year rekirkham ,i can't find it now .