Brokers Hargreave Hale gave the following Valuation for HMY

VALUATION
The nearest comparisons to this Group are Sondex, trading on a current year multiple of 14 and Weir Group which typically trades on multiples of 12 plus. We would argue that Hamworthys prospects are brighter than both these companies in view of the strong order book and the global positioning. Fully taxed earnings of 13p this year and 16.5 p for the 2005/6 end March, suggests a current year PE of 9.9x and a prospective PE of 7.8x. There is a prospective yield in excess of 4%. If trading on a similar PER to Sondex the shares would be valued at in excess of 180p. We would argue that a premium to Sondex is justifiable, in particular because of the potential ramp up to sales as a result of the new product pipeline now gaining client acceptance in what is in any event one of the fastest growing markets in the world.

"Shares" Article relating to Hamworthy (HMY) posted below for info.

With a following wind these shares should double over the next year or so.

Some catty folk in the City say the flotation last month by Collins Stewart
could have been handled better, i.e. at a higher price. It was certainly over
subscribed but the rating is half that of similar oil sector service companies
including Sondex.

Tried to top up several times today, but there seemed to be a limit in place and couldn't get a quote for more than a few hundred pounds' worth so gave up in the end. Other buys went through so is this down to the broker I'm using Fidelity? And what are the implications for the share price if there are lots of others like me who want to buy but aren't allowed to? Any comments would be welcome as I've been in this game for six months but am still really no wiser as to how the mms operate.

I am not exactly sure...certainly it is more like a couple of months than weeks...but i think the recent activity in the share price means that it is certainly on the agenda, and at the forefront of the mm's minds. I would say anytime from April to July but ultimately it all depends on how long QSAT take in the tenders. Sorry for not being anymore accurate.

No, that's very useful, paul. Tenders on this scale and in this market are not my area of expertise, so your guesstimates are fine for my purposes.

Some excelent research here, keep it up guys its nice to see this one breaking new highs.

cheers GF.

RD

It's the old story of supply and demand. If everyone want's them the mm's can work the price up. It's their job to create a market so when good news hits the market place, investors want to buy so the price increases. When the shares start to dry up and the mm's run low of stock then they start to play their silly games, like tree shakes. So investors sell frightened of loosing out, the mm's buy up at a lower price and the whole cycle starts again. A very simplistic explanation I know but hope it helps. It's not too unlike car dealing.

MS

Housebroker Collins Stewart new forecasts which were published on January 11th.The broker is looking for earnings per share to increase from 14p at 31/12/04 to 16.9p at 31/12/05 a prospective growth increase of 20.7%. This recent forecast implies that all is well and has the shares on a forward pe of 11.7.

cheers GF. Derd cheap.

Thanks, MS. Given that these do seem to be in short supply, I wonder if we should anticipate a tree shake (by which I think I understand you mean the mms drop the price to frighten people into selling off their holding) on Hamworthy in the near future?

Nearly jumped ship a while back GF and your posting made me look at my position again and decided to stay in. How right you were. Many thanks for that.

MS

RD

You never know. I think holders of HMY are too strong to fall for that. This is a definite hold for me. If the contracts that will be up for grabs come HMY's way, which I think they will. Then the sp will go much higher. Hold and the good times will be just around the corner.

MS

Dito.

cheers GF.

Having worked in the oil and gas industry for over 20 years I can tell you that big tenders such as these can easily take a year or more before firm orders are placed. The tenders from the shipbuilders can be fairly swift ( 1-2 months) as they will bid based on one of their standard designs. The oil company will then put that to its operations and technical departments to see how the basic design meets their needs. Any changes are fed back to the builders for new prices and then the haggling starts. At the end of the day it depends on how much of a hurry people are in. One positive point is that HMY with their track record are probably on the builders list as one of the standard suppliers, although that doesn't mean that you can't ask for something else - it just costs you. All in all I think HMY are very well placed but big orders take time.

There must be something in the wind. The share price hasn't increased for nothing. HMY are probable best placed to get any new contracts as they already have ships with their plant on board and working well.

MS

jimwren...I dont think they will take that long...these deals have already been in the making for months if not years, and the owners bidding for the tenders are the same as the last tranche, so most things should already be in place. As for the designs on the ships they should be much the same as the last 8 contracted ships, so there shouldnt be too much to re-negotiate, and ultimately they need to have these ships on the water around 2008, so they dont have too much time to hang around...I do however agree with you in that HMY are well placed. IMHO

paulgrip - you may be right, it is difficult to know how far the detailed planning has gone. if the ships can be of the same design, all well and good but sometimes specific projects have specific needs. I am very positive about HMY - right company in the right place at the right time. As an aside there was a piece in the IC about British Gas - they commented that they are looking to almost double their imports of LNG over the next few years. More opportunities for HMY. Don't forget also that these reliquifaction plants are also used ashore as well as on ships.

Didn't know about the use of reliquifaction plants on shore. It just gets better for HMY.

LOL

MS

don't want to bore you with technical stuff but its the onshore plants that were the big thing. until recently, when HMY developed their ship based units the gas was liquified ashore for storage and pumping on the vessel. because of its very low temp (-160C) it was very difficult for the ship to cope with the "boil off" which tended to be burnt as fuel. This is a waste and HMY's gear will surely change this - the economics are overwhelming. Add in the fact that the next ten years will see plenty of new gas fields coming on line and we are on a roll!

Interesting reading Jim, please keep it up. Going add in the morning, looks very hot on all the B/Bs.

cheers GF.

hi gf
been in this one for a while
like the look of it - the posts - stats - and price movement
increased position this morning
hoping for more as we all are i am sure it will happen

regards HUSTLER

Added again myself hustler. The company could be on the brink of something big.

cheers GF.

Hoping for a big day tuesday.

cheers GF.