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DX Group trading update sees the shares tumble: is the sell-off overdone?
The trading update from the parcels, mail and logistics operator, for the financial year to 30 June 2016 has seen the shares more than halve in quick time. Clearly some big holders have had enough! However, the severity of the sell-off suggest some irrational Friday selling may have got the better of them. A bargain on offer or more to fall?
The trading statement confirmed that trading conditions in the new financial year remain challenging, with pricing pressure a significant factor. The DX Exchange operation is experiencing a higher than expected level of volume erosion and there have been increased cost base pressures, mainly arising from driver resourcing issues (where there is an industry wide shortage). In addition, the new business pipeline in the parcels operation, while healthy, is converting more slowly.
Revenues for the first four months are 5.3% down against the prior period and profits will be significantly below current market forecasts, being previously for pre-tax profit of £27.45m and eps of 10.9p. The proposed dividend payout for the full year is now 2.5p per share (from 6.10p) which equates to a yield of a whopping 10% at the now discounted share price, seemingly well covered by earnings, although not necessarily by cash. Debt is also forecast to climb given the proposed investment. Management commented how they are “positioning the business for long term success, creating a more efficient operating structure to support our services under our OneDX programme.” That all sounds reasonable if some short term pain will result in future gain, however Mr Market seems to think it’s all terminal.
House broker Zeus has taken a hatchet to estimates: EBITDA is cut by 42% to £20.0m in FY16 (previously £34.5m) leading to earnings declining by 55% to 4.9p. The dividend is cut to 2.5p (previously 6.2p) and it is forecast that it will remain at this level in both FY17 and FY18. Net debt increases to £26.5m and £40.0m in FY16 and FY17 (previously £18.5m and £40.0m), however, this assumes an investment of c. £37.0m in to the new hub, weighted 60% in FY16. Excluding this investment net debt would be below £10.0m in FY16 falling marginally in FY17. Earnings estimates are therefore forecast to fall over the next 3 years 2016/17/18 to 4.9p, 4.7p and 4.3p respectively Assuming the now lowly 25p share price this puts the shares on a June 2016 multiple of 5.1x rising to 5.8x in 2017. Arden Partners arrived at an even more drastic scenario with revised forecasts: 2016 Revenues £301m to £288m, PBT £27.9m to £9.9m, EPS 10.7p to 3.9p DPS 6.1p to 2.5p
For those after a ‘possible’ 10% yield who are happy to wait a few years for growth to reappear, it could an interesting one.
Http://www.investorschampion.com/blog/entry/dx-group-aimdx.-trading-update-sees-the-shares-tumble-is-the-sell-off-overd#sthash.Umz9tgfD.dpuf