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What principles do people use when trading?     

edddcarter - 18 Jun 2004 22:46

I am Just a novice at all this and wandering what methods do people use when buying stock.Do people use TRENd is you friend strategy.Or if share is undervalued against its competitors or do people trade purly on technical analysis.I know there is no one best method or we would all be millionares.I just want to know what method best suites individuals

stockbunny - 23 Jun 2004 17:13 - 21 of 36

Some good points in the posts above, useful to many of us!
Company reports are hard going if you're not an accountant (I'm not)
I was told the following - I make no claim as to whether it is accurate
of not, I'm simply passing on what I was told some time ago and that I have found useful to bear in mind. However if it is inaccurate please put me right
I wont mind and as I said I'm no accountant!!!

For short term 'health' of a company - EG: if it could go bust in the
next year, I was told ages ago to check the line in the accounts titled
"total assets less current liabilities" this shows if they have assets that
could be used to keep them afloat if needs be when balanced against the creditors that are known to fall due in the next year and could demand payment. So if you're looking at a tiny firm and to invest in the short term, this may be useful to check, along with obviously whether they are actually making any money etc. However please note you need to look generally under this line in the report to find those creditors that have a longer term arrangement with them.

Southernmick - 14 Jul 2004 20:42 - 22 of 36

Fred (& others, if interested),

I am also not an accountant (unlike Fundamentalist, F1).

If you are interested in fundamental analysis, one book (if I may suggest one) in picking the bones out of accounts for the non accountant who is interested in fundamental analysis (rather than T.A.) is "Magic Numbers" by Peter Temple.

This covers 33 ratios from how to calculate Market Capitalization through to the Sharpe Ratio. This encompases PEG, Gearing, NAV, ROCE & discounted cash flow modelling / ratios.

It is very easy reading (without ever being too patronising), with plenty of real examples.

I can't recomend it enough (& NO I am not being paid here!!).

From my point of view when I first read it three years ago, it enabled me to move from going on what others said was, for example, the PEG factor, to being able to effectively work this out for myself, make my own adjustments and make my own conclusions.

Interested to know if anyone else has got anything from this book?

Mickey ( a fundamentalist to his dying day, lol).

p.s., F1 - I told you Rok were on the aquisition trail! Another small, but perfectly formed deal?

Fundamentalist - 14 Jul 2004 21:08 - 23 of 36

Mickey

Nice to see you over this side. i saw the ROK deal - looks good value to me. Bit disappointing as a GFRD holder, may mean that is less likely to happen now. Still contemplating splitting my investment between the two companies rather than solely in GFRD.

May take a look at the book - always good to read another perspective.

Markets pretty grim at the mo - watching THUS - looking to find the bottom - anywhere below 15p and I will start to open a position though could be headed back down to 12p again.

Anything else grabbing your fancy at the mo?

Fundy (F1 to you mickey)

Melnibone - 14 Jul 2004 21:41 - 24 of 36

edddcarter,

If you new to all this, then until you get some experience
under your belt then please, please, please keep your
initial stakes stupidly low until you start getting it right.

If you don't, the market will eat you for breakfast and wipe
you out.
Just concentrate at getting it right at first and conserving your
pot.
That way you'll still have some money left when you are starting
to get it right.

Melnibone.

Southernmick - 14 Jul 2004 21:57 - 25 of 36

F1,

sorry to be stalking you lol!

Was a bit dis-illusioned that no one seems to have taken over the DOOB thread (I don't think that I have the time to even post once a day - how did he do it, lol!??) so thought I would see what was on offer here.

Markets grim? I am in AHT so I can't agree lol!! I need diversification now lol!!

I think that Peter Temple's book may be a bit basic for an accountant, F1, but if you find it useful, I would be most impressed!

Mickey.

Fundamentalist - 14 Jul 2004 22:12 - 26 of 36

Mickey

Likewise, Doobs thread has left a gaping hole! it would be nice to know how he is doing in his new venture

Good to hear your in AHT, Hatto is doing very well out of that one too i hear! I tend to post a lot over here mainly on share specific threads and the general day traders thread - i have always lurked not posted at ADVFN until Doobs thread - I just cant stand the pointless ramping/deramping arguments that go on. Over here is far quieter but still a lot of knowledgeable posters. Feel free to join us regularly or send me an internal mail if you want

F1

Southernmick - 14 Jul 2004 22:29 - 27 of 36

F1,

I may well do that...

(btw, how do I send an internal email though?)

I don't have any specific feelings at the mo, other than as communicated, but I am going to post the Chinese Rice proverb on "doob"

mickey.

Fundamentalist - 14 Jul 2004 22:31 - 28 of 36

Mickey

To send a mail click on my name in the thread and it will bring up a profile and an option to send an internal email

seawallwalker - 14 Jul 2004 23:01 - 29 of 36

No one can ever say that people on this bb. do not do a great job in helping everyone who needs it.

Well done all.

And Thanks.

Abbie2u - 15 Jul 2004 14:35 - 30 of 36

melnibones post is great advice as it is impossible to lose much money

Fred1new - 15 Jul 2004 15:47 - 31 of 36

SouthernMick Thank you. I will have look at Magic Numbers sometime. At the moment I am trying to learn to count like Accountants. I think my grandson is doing it already. Should go far.

But I agree with many it is a miserable market at the moment. I feel as if it is building up pressure, but which way it will burst is anybody's guess.

Southernmick - 15 Jul 2004 21:49 - 32 of 36

No problems Fred.

Def. get the book from your local library!

An interesting excercise to then undertake is to run through the ratios with a share you hold & passionately believe in and then re-evaluate lol! Can be very revealing!

I don't agree though that it is a miserable market. When decent (& I mean decent) shares are falling for no reason, well then, isn't that a decent buying opportunity?

Food for thought perhaps?

Mickey.

Seymour Clearly - 16 Jul 2004 00:38 - 33 of 36

Agree, stockpicking is what counts. My significant holdings of stocks are:
CASH - up today (still below my buy though :-( )
CS. - up today
LLOY - down
MRW - down
SGC - up
TFC - bought today and up on my buy price (just)
WLW - up today.

5 up, 2 down. Not perfect but better than trackers!

Fundamentalist - 16 Jul 2004 16:34 - 34 of 36

Mickey

Interesting volume in GFRD today - mainly in 250K lumps very close to the mid price. Is someone building a stake or offloading one. Are ROK coming sniffing again? any thoughts

Southernmick - 19 Jul 2004 22:55 - 35 of 36

F1 - apologies for the delay in replying as I have been away for a long w/end (a nice change for once lol!!)

I have now taken a small stake in GFRD (finally you say!) and will see what happens before upping this. Some more positive RNS's today. I've found that there is nothing like holding a share for a while to understand it properly (whatever the lengths of research you do, so will see!)

For what it's worth I do not think that the ROK acquisition last week is likely to stop their acquisitiveness. Whether this means GFRD, who knows (probably now edging 30/70 against it happening)?! Either way the Dickie acquisition is a small one and unlikely to preclude further acquisitions this yr., so don't rule it out.

ROK certainly seem on the upward curve at the moment on low volumes, and there is no doubt in my opinion that the results (& forward order book) next month will be fantastic.

Seymour - interested to see that you hold two of my cash cows - SGC & LLOY. I love both of these and have been receiving the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) for several years - nice!

The thing with these two that I particularly like is that if the share price drops then when the DRIP is calculated I get loads more shares, and if it rises, well, then my capital also rises. Very nice!! (especially as neither will go to the wall!)

Mickey.

Harlosh - 20 Jul 2004 11:18 - 36 of 36

I think there are two aspects to fundamental analysis.

1. Interpreting the data as described by Fundy
2. Interpreting how the market will interpret the data. (Lots of interpreting I'm afraid.)

For example, I bought SCS Upholstery (SUY) prior to a fantastic set of results and yet the market has virtually completely ignored the shares.

Maybe the market will one day wake up to them or they know something I don't. Either way my money could have been in something which was gonna make me money.

I suspect the majority of people on here haven't got trenchloads of money and are trying to build a decent sized pot with a number of (relatively) quick winners. Only by watching price action will they achieve that.

Fundamental analysis is only half the picture IMHO.
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