justmoney
- 05 Nov 2004 13:01
Looking to invest 150000 has anyone got any ideas on what to invest in.
looking at Pipex and Healthcare enterprise group
Jumpin
- 05 Nov 2004 22:35
- 21 of 63
Who am I?
Do you trust me?
Be careful, and good luck!
EWRobson
- 05 Nov 2004 23:14
- 22 of 63
justmoney
I was in your position in January 2004 with about 60K to invest. I did have some experience in the stock market but the main source of guidance was the Shares Magazine. I invested 5K each in 12 shares, including Bloomsbury, Ottakar's, Hamleys (since taken over), Telecom Plus, Alizyme, Centrica, Egg. Over the months that followed I followed a policy of selling the poor performers (e.g. Egg) and increasing the stakes in the successful companies - good advice.
With a portfolio now doubled in value, I have just six shares. Of these, only Alizyme has been retained from the original portfolio but the overall performance is 120% gain. Your question has led me to ask the question: what would I do if I started again? I suggest:
1. Follow John Marshall of Shares. Several of the above were his recommendatins. Actually, I have yet to see him back a loser. He is still recommending Bloomsbury, Ottakar's plus Topps Tiles, Tesco, Peacocks. His major success this year is ASOS; a bit too late for Glenmorangie. There is a preponderance of consumer oriented shares in his selections. Get back copies of Shares to help with your research.
2. Decide what your objectives are. The key thing is a selection between: (a) capital gains and dividend returns; (b) high and low risk.
3. dyor. moneyAM is a good way to do this. Lets say you select a share recommended by John Marshall. Select 'Research' and print out the fundamentals. You need to understand, in particular, PE, Price to Sales, Market Cap. (PEG is useful if you can get your mind round it!) Go to News and print out the last results. Allow yourself an hour or two per company.
4. There is a big variation of helpfulness in these BBs. Some really are just a good laugh and many posters are in it for the repartee. One exception, I believe, is the ASC bb. ASC has grown 1600% this year but probably has another 100-200% to go in the next six months before it gets over-heated. There is a fascinating portfolio on that bb at present which came about as an "ASOS Challenge", i.e. a challenge to readers to nominate a share which would double quicker than ASOS. Needless to say ASOS is leading but the whole portfolio is worthy of consideration.
5. Decide on the weightings to individual shares. On 120K, I would start off with 10K per share, but, if you were convinced you had a great performer, then double the weighting (and keep a bit back). If a bit doubtful, reduce the amount to 5K but don't go over 12 shares because they are just too difficult to get to know really well.
6. Put your portfolio up on sharewatch and check it at least once daily. Any notes are indicated and check those out.
7. Are there any musts in the portfolio? There are two FTSE100 which should probably be in any balanced portfolio - Tesco and HSBC. Both have risen consistently for a long time, have international status which helps to ensure future growth and are still reasonably priced - because the market takes too short term a view. The real growth is probably to be found in the small cap and AIM markets. The reason is that many of these are, at present, not large enough for the institutional investors to pile in; the cap probably needs to be nearer 100M for that. The real movement can happen when they all want a share - something that is starting to happen with ASOS, for instance. Beware the higher risk in that part of the market. I believe, myself, that there is more risk in companies like Boots, WHSmith, Sainsbury which have become too big for the respective management's to handle.
8. Enjoy the process. Be prepared to learn. Take care who you listen to. Be prepared to admit your mistakes. And run those profits! Thank your lucky stars for having the funds. If the above is too frightening, go to a professional advisor (I went through a selection process recently for my sister-in-law and am delighted with the outcome - I can give the name to you personally if you e-mail me via the administrator).
Hope this helps. Feel free to question any points made. Good luck.
Eric
justmoney
- 06 Nov 2004 09:42
- 23 of 63
Thanks Eric/EWRobson thats realy helps
Fred1new
- 06 Nov 2004 11:22
- 24 of 63
I think you can make money on the stock market. If you are lucky you may only buy stars and no duds. However the majority of long-term punters have bought some duds in their "careers. Sometimes one remembers the pain and the shame and hopefully increases one's skill to prevent the reoccurrences.
I would suggest dumping your cash in a high interest account with a reliable internet access. Smile, Bank of Scotland etc. (Make it one of the larger banks.)
Next step would be to buy a Portfolio management software package (personally I like Sharescope, but have little experience of other packages) .
While your 150k is attracting nice risk free interest, run alongside it phantom portfolios and shares, which you think, are winners.
Judge at the end of 3months that your results would have been.
Look at the normal spread of buy to sell and the normal market size of the share you consider buying. Look at the trend for the share you are buying, buy with the uptrend not against it. Not many read the bottom of a shares price, however there must be some who do it or the share wouldnt bottom out. (But do they do this consistently or just brag on the occasions they get it right.)
Start off an internet ISA account which provides you with on line research prices and lower dealing costs.
Get a variety of books and CDs on Technical Analysis, such as David Jones introduction to charting on CD from(Sharescope) , Martin Prings introduction to TA. CD and book) Also Technical Analysis for Dummies by Barbara Rockefeller. One of the best books I have read on TA.
Some books on Fundamental such as The investors guide to Understanding accounts by Robert Leech. I find these books (Fundamental's) boring, but they give some insight into the basics of a company and the markets. (I wish I had understood a little more about accounts now and before I had started gambling.)
Get a few books such as How to read the Financial Pages by Michael Brett.
The Times: How to Understand the Financial Pages An A-Z Guide to Money and the Jargon by Alexander Davidson
Remember there is never any urgency to buy, but there is sometimes a need to sell quickly. However good or reliable a tip check it out first before buying or selling ie DYOR . If you don't buy immediately, if it is a good share you can ride on the trend and there are always plenty more fish in the sea.
Buy Shares, Investors Chronicle and use the various internet platforms. They may help you to think about what you are doing. (Dont believe what you read, or see, without checking out the basics for yourself, NMS, Spread, cash, earnings, PE. ROC yields Etc,.
DONT BE IN A HURRY. Have a good holiday before you start, it may be the last you can afford for a while.
Fred1new
- 06 Nov 2004 16:54
- 25 of 63
PS another important Buy if you don't already have it is BroadBand or equivalent. It makes downloading and looking around so much easier. The latest other Gizmos and latest highest speed commuter is not generally a great advantage and if "needed" rather than "wanted" can be bought 12mths later far cheaper with the teething problems of the latest versions resolved.
aldwickk
- 06 Nov 2004 19:55
- 26 of 63
If you want risk buy PET and TMC and you could make a million +.
Fred1new
- 06 Nov 2004 20:22
- 27 of 63
PS Leave CFDs, Spread betting, Options etc. to others, until you think you understand what is driving the markets and then you can try it, possibly losing money at the same rate as many others.
Also for about 3-6 months form a portfolio of tipped shares and check the results. Chek the price of the shares tipped for a period before and after the tip.
optomistic
- 06 Nov 2004 22:49
- 28 of 63
Fred1new,
I reckon yourself and EWRobson have put some good points there that would do well to be noted by new and not so new investers alike.
opto
EWRobson
- 07 Nov 2004 23:55
- 29 of 63
Helpful comments from Fred1 new. Not so convinced about all the books; you can lose yourself in a mass of detail. The only investment book that I have read (I do read plenty of articles in Shares and IC, so that is good advice) is Jim Slater's Zulu Principle. His wife taught him the ZP; she was an expert in Zulus and their history and was in much demand to share her knowledge. Perhaps the best advice to take is to really get to know the companies you invest in very well indeed - you end up knowing more than the experts and learn to predict share movements and thus know when to sell or accumulate. Whether you jump in or take time to study depends on your personality. Certainly, start by using moneyAM and pay their 10+VAT per month subscription to get current prices and use stockwatch for your portfolio and also a watchlist of shares that you are interested in. Also, find an on-line trader which keeps the dealing costs down. I am happy with stocktrade, one of the originals. Their charge is 14.50 per transaction which is not the cheapest but I do find that they deal at good prices (checking the trades against the live stream).
I thought we should play a game! I will start by defining some criteria for investing 150K and then put forward a portfolio. It wouldn't be my actual investments because my personal portfolio is much higher risk, seeking greater returns. The criteria may be right for you; they would fit several friends - now I don't advise friends! but, if they insisted... My suggestion is that other visitors to the bb put forward their own portfolios and we can then see how they do. You may want to go for mine or one of the others or none at all. But we should all learn from the exercise. What is at the back of my mind is that this bb, given that it stays alive because we are playing this game, could then be helpful to others who are coming to the market with a significant sum to invest and are wondering what to do.
So, here are the criteria:
1. Spread the risk over 12 shares.
2. Objective to take out 15K (10%) per annum (presumably to use this bequest, say, to improve lifestyle whilst keeping the principle amount invested). Part of this can be dividends but obviously not all. Essentially you are aiming for a minimum of 10% capital growth per year (+ inflation). If achieved exactly, the sum invested is staying at 150K (+ inflation).
3. Bearing in mind that higher capital growth implies, generally, higher risk, restrict the risk funds to one-third of the portfolio.
We will call the portfolio below the ER portfolio - a couple of initials please to identify other proposals. Price to be offer price quoted at close of business.
______________ EPIC level pe__ yld price_ shares
(1st third)
HSBC__________ HSBA 25K_ 15.2 3.7 918___ 2723
Tesco_________ TSCO 25K_ 17.6 2.4 290.75 8598
(2nd third)
Bloomsbury____ BMY_ 10K_ 16.2 0.9 257___ 3891
Ottakar's_____ OKR_ 10K_ 10.7 1.6 362___ 2762
Telecom Plus__ TEP_ 10K_ 22.8 3.4 298___ 3355
Topps Tiles___ TPT_ 10K_ 23.4 1.7 196___ 5102
Alizyme_______ AZM_ 10K_ -___ -__ 123___ 8130
(3rd third)
ASOS__________ ASC_ 10K_ 83.2 -__ 83____ 12048
Healthcare Ent HCEG 10K_ -___ -__ 1.92__ 520833
Pipex Comms___ PXC_ 10K_ -___ -__ 7.5___ 133333
Yoomedia______ YOO_ 10K_ -___ -__ 26____ 38461
Petrel Res.___ PET_ 10K_ -___ -__ 110___ 9090
A very quick summary of basis for selection:
- Portfolio in 3 thirds (50K each): (1) blue chip with consistent growth; (2) 100m+ cap, established; (3) emerging small-cap growth stocks.
- HSBC and Tesco stand head and shoulders above FT100 for growth with income.
- Bloomsbury: excellent management, acquisitive, not just H Potter.
- Ottakar's: excellent formula with plenty of room for growth. -- Telecom Plus: far more than Telecoms company with network marketing approach.
- Topps Tiles: as for Ottakar's.
- Alizyme: established portfolio of drugs, awaiting major licencing deal.
- ASOS: success story of 2004; plenty of further growth to come (see bb).
- HCEG: proposed by justmoney; potential winner for MRSA.
- Pipex: proposed by justmoney; 20% holding by BCS; moving to profit.
- YOO: leader in emerging digital TV marketplace (see bb).
- Petrel Resources: only high risk share; Iraqi oil deal within month? (see bb).
Happy to justify selections. Progress report at month close. Any other portfolios?
Eric
EWRobson
- 08 Nov 2004 19:48
- 30 of 63
Surprised no takers yet for the 150K Challenge above. Imagine being able to start again without the dead wood in your portfolio! Or are you overcome by the brilliant analysis?
Eric
partridge
- 09 Nov 2004 11:17
- 31 of 63
Echo Opto comment of 6th November - who needs fund managers? Remember the day may well come when you find internet access to brokers cut off and all telephone lines engaged, whilst prices drop before your eyes. This is for your fun money. With my 150K I would take slightly less risky approach. Keep HSBC/Tesco as blue chips. In established cos change Alizyme, Telecom Plus and Topps for AG Barr,Halma and Domnick Hunter - lovely cash generation feeds good and growing dividends. Many to choose from in emerging cos (some of which will fail) and cannot argue with your choice, but personal preference would favour Fayrewood and Imprint Search in the short term at least (both now profitable and with good prospects)over PET and YOO.
EWRobson
- 09 Nov 2004 12:33
- 32 of 63
partridge
Agree comment re fund managers. diy approach becomes a better route with informed input on these BBs from people who (a) know their onions; (b) know their investments inside out. Its a stock-pickers market. Thanks for PR portfolio - Unless you want to do it, I'll post this evening with shares allotted on basis of closing offer price (easy to do as variant on my ER portfolio). Other players?
Eric
partridge
- 09 Nov 2004 14:20
- 33 of 63
Eric
Very happy for you to do the posting - thanks.
poacher45
- 09 Nov 2004 17:47
- 34 of 63
Lloyds Bank
Framlington Second Dual Zero Div Pref
Civilian Content
Finsbury Food
Marchpole
Alliance Dresdner Income Growth Ordinary
Ideal Shopping
William Ransom
Investec High Income Ordinary
Simon Group
Equal amounts in each even investment trusts can give good returns
EWRobson
- 09 Nov 2004 22:20
- 35 of 63
poacher45
Thanks for entry. Have logged the shares with offer price. Have you offer price for the Framlington plus Alliance Dresdner plus yield and PE?
Eric
EWRobson
- 09 Nov 2004 22:58
- 36 of 63
Partridge
Invested your 150K as requested in the PR Portfolio! Don't see Domick Hunter to give it a PE or yield. All looked blue today which suggests you might have an upwardly mobile portfolio.
______________ EPIC level pe__ yield price shares
HSBC__________ HSBE 25K_ 15.2 3.7__ 914__ 2735
Tesco_________ TSCO 25K_ 17.6 2.4__ 293.5 8517
Bloomsbury____ BMY_ 10K_ 16.2 0.9__ 257__ 3891
Ottakar's_____ OKR_ 10K_ 10.7 1.6__ 360__ 2777
AG Barr_______ BAG_ 10K_ 13.1 3.6__ 730__ 1369
Halma_________ HLMA 10K_ 23.4 3.9__ 16.6_ 6359
Domnick Hunter DKH_ 10K_ -___ -____ 395__ 2531
ASOS__________ ASC_ 10K_ 82.2 -____ 82___ 12195
Healthcare Ent HCEG 10K_ -___ -____ 2.00_ 500000
Pipex Comms___ PXC_ 10K_ -___ -____ 7.5__ 133333
Fayrewood_____ FWY_ 10K_ 0.4_ 9.2__ 137__ 7299
Inprint Search IMP_ 10K_ -___ 22.8_ 156__ 6410
Good luck! Eric
poacher45
- 10 Nov 2004 08:07
- 37 of 63
Alliance Dresdner Price 46p P/E 6.7 Dividend Yield 13.74%
Framlington Price 138p No P/E or Dividend.
Hope this helps.
capa
- 10 Nov 2004 09:01
- 38 of 63
Eric, heres my list don't think it fits perfectly into your criteria though.
FTSE
TSCO 20,000
RSA 20,000
CNE 10,000
MKT CAP 100m +
HRN 20,000
AZM 10,000
NLR 20,000
SMALL CAP
MPH 12,500
ASC 12,500
CCN 12,500
ACE 12,500
cheers
capa
partridge
- 10 Nov 2004 09:04
- 39 of 63
Domnick Hunter has yield 2.6% and P/E of 16. Don't forget the "n" in the middle. Please also note spelling of Imprint. Many thanks. Have dealt since 1972 and probably had more blue days than red, made some money, lost most of my hair and had a lot of fun!
torquay
- 10 Nov 2004 12:58
- 40 of 63
Partridge
IMP FWY yields.
What are these figures?