Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

Click HERE to visit me at FXtechnicals.net

hi D
whats your take / opinion on nzd/usd ?
ta (thats thanks)
regards
jkd

Hi jkd,

apologies for delay in replying, i've been ill with food poisoning since late on Sunday and thus have barely looked at any charts until today. Unfortunately you've asked me about a pair that hasn't been throwing me much to go on for quite some time, thus i've concentrated on others instead.
Much as i would love to give a view, nothing lines up for me, so i couldn't comment on how much further it will rise... sorry.

regards

D

I will add this update of the Eurgbp;

Previous chart;



Update;

EJ;



all happened a little bit quicker than expected;

D
thanks for your reply.i hope you are recovering or have recovered.
please do not think i was enquiring about how much further this might rise.(or not)
i am able to do my own analysis and draw my own conclusions on that matter.
i was simply interested to see what an elliott wave analysis might make of the current
price movement as i know very little about elliott wave analysis.
thanks again
regards
jkd

Understood jkd.

The mistake most people make when applying EWP is to make a count fit either a) their own thoughts, or b) when it really isn't recognisable! In this instance i chose 'b'!

Sometimes a pattern is very easy to recognise and comprehend. That in itself isn't enough though, as you need to be able to determine what PA did before the pattern you recognise so as to be able to label the move and have a perspective of what is likely to follow. This can start with minutes and of course, go through each cycle, hourly, daily, weekly etc...

The Kiwi has not given me much to go on for some time now...

regards D.

Quick revisit;

EurGbp 04/04/13;



Update;

XAU Fib confluence at $1,300;



Article HERE

Apple has had a torrid time this year. I printed a chart of the weekly and made a quote late last year in Mid December, here on this thread, post 160;

(Chart);



(Quote);

‘Once we know for sure we are in wave ‘C’ its time to get short some more… $35 middle of next year anyone?’…

At the time i wasn't sure if wave B had finished, but as the chart showed at the time, the end result would be the same, (ie; much lower). It was approx $51 at the time and has indeed been down below the $40 mark.

Here is an article explaining why i don't think it's finished its decline yet...

Markets always tell fibs;



Update;

Trade percentages, not pips...



For 1% original risk, the R:R ratio was v.good, indeed it became 1:10+ Most people have a far longer timescale on their minds looking for a ten bagger amongst shares.



Article HERE

EurGbp;



Update;



http://fxtechnicals.net/2013/04/eurgbp-close-to-resuming-downtrend/

Bigger picture on daily, wave A retraced exactly 38.2% of the previous 5w rise;

GbpNzd;



'A' breaks down into 3 with minor 'c' = 100% of 'a'
'B' also breaks down with minor 'c' = 100% of 'a'
'B' is irregular, and is 150% of wave 'A, signalling overall weakness in the £/kiwi, expect wave 5 to extend.

Bigger picture; wave 4 (of overall wave 5);

Nice set of channel lines in play for Cable;



Cable analysis and channel lines

Dow Jones;

Fridays call (upto 14,837);



Update;



Nice reaction off of the level, however, the drop this afternoon looks to have been corrective, so i now expect higher, otherwise we would require a LL at 14,650 to confirm downtrend.

Possibility of Double Top

EurUsd, yesterday looking for the 61.8% fib level;



Article HERE

In closer detail:

Somewhat riskier though, as countertrend on anything less than the daily chart. My preferred trade is Short the EurGbp

Dont say i didn't warn you!

Chart behind the 'Short the EurGbp' call;



Analysis and article;

http://fxtechnicals.net/2013/05/eurgbp-chart-update-analysis-and-reason-why-im-short/