irlee57
- 13 Aug 2007 09:03
any comments, thoughts, on this stock.
Guscavalier
- 26 Sep 2007 08:46
- 401 of 1029
I appreciate your point cynic but, your worst case scenario must surely only come to pass if the BOE withdraw support. With the new large shareholders plus other private investers buying stakes recently, that must be conservatively 20%. If the BOE/ Government are seen to be promoting a rout it could prove very expensive for them(thats politicians) publically. It is going to be a very interesting time.
cynic
- 26 Sep 2007 09:05
- 402 of 1029
no .... PXC is not a bad example on a much smaller scale .... any buyer will either cherry-pick bits and pieces or pay effectively zero for thw whole
Guscavalier
- 26 Sep 2007 09:24
- 403 of 1029
Yes... but they have to be allowed to cherry pick. Your arguement infers that the shareholders have no choice & support is withdrawn. Moreover, NRK have put up collateral and are paying interest. What price NRK will achieve I dont know but, I shall be most surprised if the result for shareholders is Zero.
cynic
- 26 Sep 2007 10:01
- 404 of 1029
you could easily be surprised then! ...... lonhg long article in today's Telegraph, but it set out the 3 likely or possible scenarios (scenarii?) ...... the conclusion was that in each event the shareholders will be left with ZERO! ...... in fcat, that would suit BoE and gov't very well, for they have been castigated in various quarters for even offering NRK depositors and mortgagees any lifeline at all, so to effectively bail out the shareholders would lead to a massive and arguably justified hue and cry.
steveo
- 26 Sep 2007 10:29
- 405 of 1029
I agree with Cynic, it doesn't look good, today should have been a big fillip, but the market is unimpressed, share will continue to drift, maybe not as dramatically as the last two weeks, I increased my short this am around the peak, also short on AL., sentiment is against them, bernanke put is going to be a temporary boost to markets but I expect that the Bear market is definitely here for financials at least.
cynic
- 26 Sep 2007 10:36
- 406 of 1029
i also topped up my short here this morning @ 179 ..... shorting AL may be bit brave unless you did it when it briefly hit 800+ a couple of weeks back
Big Al
- 26 Sep 2007 10:54
- 407 of 1029
steveo - "the market is unimpressed"?
She opened up 7p and has been as much as 22p higher this morning. I'm amazed at the strength to be perfectly honest. Sure you're not watching another stock? ;-))
At present she's up 8%!
Big Al
- 26 Sep 2007 10:54
- 408 of 1029
.............. but is it a shorting opportunity? ;-0
cynic
- 26 Sep 2007 11:10
- 409 of 1029
the market is indeed very unimpressed ....... even Collins Stewart who still rate NRK a hold say a simple takeover by another bank is unlikely and they continue to review their target price of 163
steveo
- 26 Sep 2007 12:11
- 410 of 1029
Big Al:
I beleive the main reason for the rise was that they weren't paying the dividend and rumours that there are interested parties present, bearing in mind that positive sentiment it didn't do much, considering its value just a few days ago. The sp is struggling to get to 180p, every day that passes puts it under more pressure. However I am by no means an expert whatsoever, just someone else having a small punt. yes it was up 8% now nearly 11%, that is why I increased my short, see more likelihood of downside from here. Time will tell
Re AL. short at 770p but have a tight stop loss on it, this credit crunch has a long way to go in my opinion.
Big Al
- 26 Sep 2007 13:11
- 411 of 1029
I'm a happy longer at the mo. ;-))
Big Al
- 26 Sep 2007 13:14
- 412 of 1029
Flat after +6-ish
Balmoral
- 26 Sep 2007 13:47
- 413 of 1029
closed short yesterday - now short again at 183.5 - stressful share to trade, clearly hard to call ....
cynic
- 26 Sep 2007 13:54
- 414 of 1029
indeed .... but though there are certain bullish noises from a few interested or even partisan parties, i really (and truly!) cannot believe there is anything other than tears for the shareholders
Balmoral
- 26 Sep 2007 14:00
- 415 of 1029
cynic - me too - I'm more concerned about it going into administration if a solution can not be found - then I'd be truly busted not able to close the short!
cynic
- 26 Sep 2007 14:02
- 416 of 1029
not sure what happens in those circumstances .... do you have any definitive info from your broker on same?
Balmoral
- 26 Sep 2007 14:13
- 417 of 1029
cynic - will check with gni
Kayak
- 26 Sep 2007 14:17
- 418 of 1029
There are special provisions enabling buying to close shorts even though shares are suspended. Basically you would agree a price with a market maker or the spreadbetter.
cynic
- 26 Sep 2007 14:22
- 419 of 1029
thanks Kayak ..... knew it would have to be closable somehow
Big Al
- 26 Sep 2007 14:22
- 420 of 1029
Not sure it's wise to be short with bids in the offing and trying to second guess a bid size. A bit dangerous?