markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
cynic
- 15 Sep 2010 08:51
- 4501 of 6492
you're spot on RF
however, it's an interesting call as to whether or not DES is now undervalued relative to RKH
my money says that DES is a good trading stock in the present climate - so i do not mind at all that price has improved further since i banked my profit yesterday - as if the RKH flowtest is good, then though DES will benefit, RKH will benefit even more AND RKH happens to have a 7.5% stake in the relevant DES licences
required field
- 15 Sep 2010 08:53
- 4502 of 6492
Exactly, and I sold at just over 116p....so at the present moment not too bothered about todays rise.....so far.....
HARRYCAT
- 15 Sep 2010 09:15
- 4503 of 6492
If the probablity is that RKH test will be good, I feel that it is too early to be out of any of these. Am holding with a limit sell, pending SL results. Calculated risk, but more upside that downside, imo.
Balerboy
- 15 Sep 2010 09:22
- 4504 of 6492
For what it's worth, agree with Harry. All will be influenced by RKH, decision time is on or after flow test results. A hold for now.
required field
- 15 Sep 2010 10:01
- 4505 of 6492
Des will probably along with RKH go up.....not so much.....because so far it has next to nothing to show, but the pullback afterwards could be severe and I cannot watch all the time...some days I can...others I cannot...DES is overvalued now, so god knows how could it be valued at say 450 million pounds if RKH comes good...crazy....I fear a sharp drop back to reality....
required field
- 15 Sep 2010 12:46
- 4507 of 6492
You don't think that the market cap is too high ?...on positive results from Rockhopper : this could rise as well but not so much as RKH....and then with a market valuation in excess of 400 million I fear a pullback on punters thinking that the next well could turn out to be a dud....
HARRYCAT
- 15 Sep 2010 12:46
- 4508 of 6492
StockMarketWire.com
Desire Petroleum started at Evolution with buy rating, 136p target price.
chav
- 15 Sep 2010 14:06
- 4509 of 6492
DES shifting up nicely again today with good volume....should accelerate if Sealion test goes well as investors confidence in Rachel will improve hugely.
chav
- 15 Sep 2010 17:22
- 4510 of 6492
Evolution note out today, in part:
Scream if you want to go faster
The 2010/11 Falkland Island drilling campaign has started off with one
major oil discovery, a non-commercial gas discovery and two dry wells.
We expect the area to continue to attract investor interest: there are at
least three more wells to drill in the North Falkland Basin, flow testing is
ongoing at the Sea Lion discovery, and there is potential for Borders &
Southern or Falkland Oil and Gas to contract a drillship to expedite
activity in the deepwater South and Plateau Basins. We initiate coverage
on Argos (BUY, TP 52p), Falkland Oil and Gas (BUY, TP 248p), Borders &
Southern (NEUTRAL, TP 101p), Desire Petroleum (BUY, TP 136p) and
Rockhopper (NEUTRAL, TP 359p).
It has been an encouraging start to exploration in the northern part of the North
Falkland Basin where Argos, Desire and Rockhopper operate. Rockhoppers Sea
Lion oil discovery has proved the potential for commercial oil fields (analysis of the
1998 drilling campaign having concluded that there was an active hydrocarbon
system present). News from the southern part of the Basin, though, has been less
optimistic the Ernest wells failure to encounter hydrocarbons has called into
question the areas prospectivity.
The South Falkland and Falkland Plateau Basins to the south of the Falkland
Islands are far less developed, and so far only one well (the unsuccessful Toroa
prospect) has been drilled. The remaining prospects will require a deepwater rig to
be contracted, something that is being worked on by Falkland Oil and Gas partner,
BHP Billiton, and by Borders & Southern. The lack of wells and data make drilling
in these Basins higher risk than in the North Falkland Basin but this is offset by
larger potential prizes, with prospects generally surpassing 1 bn bbls each.
Valuation
While the Falkland E&Ps have historically been grouped together, there is a clear
distinction between those operating in the North Falkland Basin and those in the
Southern Basins as these are geologically different areas with differing risks. While
we see upside for all companies we have grouped the companies by area and then
based recommendations on where we see greater relative value. In the North
Falkland Basin, we prefer Desire (Buy, TP 136p) over Rockhopper (Neutral, TP
359p), owing to the formers leverage to near-term drilling. In the Southern Basins
we prefer Falkland Oil & Gas (Buy, TP 248p) over Borders & Southern
(Neutral, TP 101p) owing to its mix of play types and more attractive valuation.
Argos (Buy, TP 52p), is at a less developed stage than the other four but operates
in the right postcode and appears a low-cost entry route into the prospective
northern part of the North Falkland Basin.
required field
- 15 Sep 2010 22:01
- 4511 of 6492
Latter part is complete crap.....DES comes up dry and check out the redundancy package !...
HARRYCAT
- 15 Sep 2010 22:11
- 4512 of 6492
Rf, IF DES comes up dry. It's all about evaluating risk, hence their expression 'near-term drilling leverage'. If DES hits oil then the sp will rocket. RKH have already hit oil so the potential upside is less than that of DES.
required field
- 15 Sep 2010 22:44
- 4513 of 6492
Not with the market cap at 400 million quid.....it can hardly be valued more with a smallish discovery.....I mean a discovery of a certain size is already in the sp......imagine the situation that RKH flows are ok....right RKH's sp shoots up (hopefully for me anyway) by a pound let's say....DES shoots up by 30p....right,... now Desire spuds the next well and they come up dry.....it's a strong possibility...RKH's sp remains right up there apart from some profit taking...but DES's will be back down at 50p or so....what's going to keep it up at 120p or so with a market cap of 400 million....it's just not going to happen....so a heck of a lot rests on this next well.....after RKH's tests : that's if you are online when the results come through...I would sell.....just my opinion....
Balerboy
- 15 Sep 2010 23:03
- 4515 of 6492
hot chocolate and bed for you rf.....
robstuff
- 16 Sep 2010 09:45
- 4516 of 6492
the sp will be very volatile over the next few weeks I guess as optimism over the coming drilling and then fear grows of a dry well and so on. I have been holding for donkeys yrs but wouldnt buy right now, wait until result of first well then add imo
required field
- 16 Sep 2010 09:48
- 4517 of 6492
Hey !....I can easily come back in and haunt you...hoooo...hoooo......
chav
- 16 Sep 2010 15:35
- 4518 of 6492
About time it reached out for 1.30
chav
- 17 Sep 2010 03:11
- 4520 of 6492
Not overly flash for kite flying lately Marky but the sun has been shinning with the odd shower thrown in....not a lot of flesh too put on your bones I'm afraid!