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As the world holds its breath for Friday's result, it appears the markets have already decided on an outcome - but we're genuinely unsure whether it's 'Leave' or 'Remain' that tickles the FTSE.
Certainly, every commentator has described the recent rises as remain optimism, something which puzzles due to the plethora of opinion polls favouring a leave vote.
An acquaintance, who's a pretty reliable track record in building trends from opinion poll results, seems pretty convinced of a small leave majority. Perhaps the market is lively because of leave optimism! We shall know on Friday.
One thing we do know is the markets have been forcing the Banking Sector retail shares upward this week. Of the three, Barclays (BARC) has managed to better its immediate downtrend since August last year.
Barclays' one year downtrend is currently at 180.75 and, trading at 182p, is seen as having moved from 'Going Down' to 'Not Going Down'. It's certainly in a zone where some growth toward 204p remains sensible but we really want the share price above 235p before we shall admit it's 'Going Up'.
The interesting thing about all the price manipulation recently (big movement gaps at the open) seems to be the effort employed to remove Barclays from seriously dangerous territory. By trading below blue on the chart below, the price had been flirting with a drop potential to 128p, perhaps even 78p! Anything capable of causing trouble would require forcing Barclays below 148p to 128p initially.
Lloyds (LLOY) tells a slightly different story from Barclays. When we apply the same downtrend to Lloyds as exhibited by Barclays, we find the share price currently requires above 72.798 to escape the ruling downtrend.
This is actually quite a big deal as the share is trading in a region where weakness to 54p makes a lot of sense unless the price betters blue by closing above it. Such an event allows growth toward 83.25p currently, maybe even 92p with positive meerkat conditions. If true trouble is planned for Lloyds, closure below red (currently 57p) on the chart would be rather scary as red is an uptrend since 2011. Closure below imparts sufficient weakness for 30p eventually!
Thankfully there is another detail regarding Lloyds we recently revealed to clients which is providing a remarkable degree of confidence for the future - we hope!
RBS (RBS) is proving a bit of a giggle. The share price currently needed to close above 246.889 to better the blue downtrend. It closed the session at 246.6p! Once RBS actually closes above blue, we can plot a course toward 263p, maybe even 303p sometime in the future. But until above blue, the share is trading in a region where weakness below 206p ultimately allows for 186p with secondary a scary 117p.