.

I would like @ 62p entry, wonder if in any bad day soon
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Lloyds Bank: The case for 34% upside - By Lee Wild | Mon, 4th September 2017 - 12:32

There had been much to like about Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) before the start of summer. Impressive profits, a generous dividend, and all-round improvement in the banking business has rewarded patient shareholders and attracted new ones.

Indeed, buying at the post-referendum lows of 47p and selling at the May high would have generated a capital return of around 56%. Over 4p a share of dividends has also been announced since.

Yet, there is disagreement about the merits of backing Lloyds now. Certainly, from a technical angle, our analyst John Burford suggests the shares are at a critical juncture, with further downside quite possible.

Bears point to a 14% drop in the share price from 73.5p three-and-a-half months ago to levels last seen in April. That's at a time when the wider market has moved sideways and the bank sector has risen 2%. And this downtrend (see red line on the chart below), currently at 63p, remains a significant level.

There's been a hiccup on the fundamentals, too. Lloyds has done a great job rebuilding its financial strength following the Credit Crunch, and the shares had been moving nicely. However, second-quarter results late July disappointed. Reported profit was up 4%, but a fifth less than expected because of surprise PPI provisions and other conduct issues.

An increase in UK interest rates, which would be a significant boost to margins at Lloyds, appear no closer, either.

Despite this, Jason Napier at UBS remains a fan, and Lloyds stays on his list of top bank stocks to buy. A price target of 85p implies 34% upside.



Launched in May 2016, Napier's list has returned 40%, outperforming the index by 5%. And that's despite holding Lloyds - down 6% from its 67p portfolio entry price - through the Brexit vote.

However, the high street lender is "safer than you think" and "cheaper than the market believes," writes the analyst.

"Despite our cautious view on the UK economy we expect Lloyds to deliver broadly flat adjusted EPS in 2017-2019 as pre-provision profit growth offsets substantially higher loan losses," says Napier. "We do not expect earnings growth but we believe good capital generation will finance a dividend yield of over 8%."

And UBS differs from others, arguing that net interest income generation is more sustainable than the market credits. In fact, there's room for re-pricing of deposits and return to growth in the open resi[dential] mortgage portfolio.

"We see more capacity for cost reduction to offset revenue weakness should competitive conditions worsen beyond management expectations. We see optionality in investing in investments and insurance-driven businesses too."

And UBS admits its assumptions could be conservative. "In four of the last five UK recessions, the banks made their share price lows before the recessions began," points out Napier.

Expect a share price re-rating if Lloyds keeps outperforming peers like Barclays in unsecured loan losses, defends interest margins and grows the balance sheet.

Of the other London-listed banks under UBS's microscope, the broker rates HSBC (HSBA) and Standard Chartered (STAN) both 'neutral with targets of 725p and 800p respectively, suggesting modest downside for the former and a small tick up for Standard.

HSBC's valuation - 1.3 times tangible net asset value for a 10% forecast return on tangible equity with 5.3% dividend yield - fully discounts UBS's base case forecasts.

For Standard, its turnaround is on track this year, but things will be "far more of a stretch" in 2018, argues Napier.

Anyone subscribing to the MoneyAM Level 2 platform please take note that most days it is not reporting the correct Trade High nor Trade Low information and "some days" not reporting the correct Opening Price or Closing Price.

The reason is because MoneyAM's Level 2 system is not sensing the Auto Trades or Ordinary Trades correctly so is wrongly reporting them

MoneyAM has been unable to fix the fault for over 8 weeks now but are still charging full price for their Level 2

The bounce is on, since yesterday on reaching the expected 62p double bottom
--

moving ahead despite FTSE going nowhere

64.61p +0.98 +1.54%

close to 65p now, not at this price for 2 weeks now

August's inflation rate of 2.9% has got the market expecting a rise on inteerest rates much earlier posibly February instead of May next year and with that Sterling rose to $1.3275 not seeing for some time or months.

So no wonder that the LLOY share price got in the mood today on a dump day for the market

A very good recovery from the opening marked down to 64.22p as the FTSE was 65 points lower.

Since LLOYDS has gone level, but the FTSE only recovered 15 points

65.38p +0.30p

Bouncing back, the opening marked down to 64.20p, second day in a row being manipulated this way, now should move to 66p as the next stage

66p +1.08p

had a good run since the hint of a rate rise..........

Pound jumps as Bank of England hints at rate rise
The Bank of England has said that higher inflation and a pick up in growth could lead to a rate hike in "the coming months".

Members of the Bank's nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep interest rates on hold at 0.25%.
But the committee was talking in much stronger terms about an increase, analysts said.

The pound climbed nearly 1% against the dollar to $1.3314 after the Bank's announcement.

BBC - Pound jumps as Bank of England hints at rate rise

65.82p +0.50 +0.77%

Very volatile for the last couple days but today is bouncing back

very volatile this days, but had another go at 66p and went over but did not hold, nevertheless is not far away from that point once again

Today's Broker ratings:
19 Sep Beaufort...80.00 Buy
19 Sep JP Morgan...83.00 Overweight
19 Sep Deutsche Bank73.00 Buy

Jefferies International today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Lloyds Banking Group PLC ORD (LON:LLOY) and raised its price target to 91p (from 87p).

[Just hoping their time frame is within my lifetime! Shame they can't even hint at a target date.]

Trading balance in LLOYDs a little unusual.

Has there been one large holder dumping?

If so who and why?

Is it TM's Brexit declaration and decisions today?



Buy Volume 248,861,181 Trade Low 66.10
Sell Volume 39,838,323

There's something about they are the biggest loans for auto's some 11 billion or so and apparently car sales are down , obviously because of BREXIT you know .

Trading statement due tomorrow.

Q3 2017 Interim Management Statement

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2017

Strong financial performance with improved profit and returns on both an underlying and statutory basis
· Underlying profit for the nine months of £6.6 billion, 8 per cent higher than the previous year, with an underlying return on tangible equity of 16.2 per cent
· Strong third quarter with income up 8 per cent driven by organic growth and MBNA
· Total income for the nine months 6 per cent higher with improved net interest income and other income; net interest margin increased to 2.85 per cent
· Positive operating jaws; market-leading cost:income ratio improved to 45.9 per cent
· Asset quality remains strong with impairment charge of £538 million; asset quality ratio of 16 basis points
· Statutory profit before tax 38 per cent higher at £4.5 billion with return on tangible equity of 10.5 per cent
· Strong capital generation of c.185 basis points with a CET1 ratio of 14.9 per cent, pre dividend
· Capital requirements continue to evolve and seeing some upward pressure

Our differentiated UK focused business model continues to deliver with the UK economy remaining resilient; well positioned for future growth
· UK's largest and top-ranked digital bank; 13.2 million online customers, of which 9 million active mobile customers
· MBNA integration now expected to complete by end of Q1 2019, ahead of schedule
· Announced the acquisition of Zurich's UK workplace pensions and savings business
· Continued lending growth in targeted segments including the open mortgage book
· Improved credit ratings from Moody's: Lloyds Bank upgraded to Aa3 and Lloyds Banking Group upgraded to A3
· New organisational structure implemented ahead of announcement of strategic review in February

Improved financial guidance for capital and net interest margin with longer term guidance maintained
· Capital generation in 2017 now expected to be between 225 and 240 basis points and will mitigate upward pressure on capital requirements
· Net interest margin expected to be stable in the fourth quarter and for the year to be around 2.85 per cent
· Asset quality ratio for the year expected to be less than 20 basis points