Liberal Democrats facing even bigger wipeout than expected
Junior coalition partners could have fewer than 20 MPs after 2015 general election – compared with the 57 elected in 2010
Rowena Mason, political correspondent
The Guardian, Tuesday 9 December 2014
The Liberal Democrats may be facing a greater wipeout than previously predicted, leaving them with fewer than 20 MPs after the next election, research based on the British Election Study has suggested.
A conference in London on Tuesday will feature an analysis from Dr Steve Fisher of Oxford University, which concludes that Nick Clegg’s party appears to be losing votes more heavily in seats it currently holds than it is nationally.
The study casts doubt on the party’s argument that its incumbent MPs will buck the national trend because of local popularity. The data suggests its parliamentary representation could more than halve from the 57 MPs who won seats at the last election.
The performance of the Lib Dems is crucial to the outcome of the next election because the party has so many marginal seats that could fall to either Labour or the Conservatives, potentially making the difference between which is the largest party or has a majority.
“The result is very strong, so if the pattern in the British Election Survey were replicated at the election then it would not be a surprise if the Liberal Democrats were below 20 seats after the election,” Fisher said.
In a blog, Fisher wrote: “If they are indeed losing most heavily in the seats they are defending, they are set to lose several more seats than national polls with uniform swing would predict … for many Liberal Democrat MPs to hold on to their seats they will need to become even more personally popular than they were in 2010: a tough task under the circumstances.”
The academic said Labour were the clear beneficiaries of this pattern of decline in support for the Lib Dems. However, he said, this particular constituency pattern was not hugely advantageous for Ed Miliband’s party because “most Liberal Democrat seats have the Conservatives in second place and it will be tough for Labour to come from third to win”.
Separate research from Prof Geoff Evans and Jon Mellon of Oxford University suggests Ukip will pose twice as much of a threat to the Conservatives as it will to Labour in terms of the number of seats potentially lost.
More + graphics here:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/09/liberal-democrats-face-bigger-wipeout-than-expected