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Desire Petroleums Falklands oil discovery could prompt a 97 pct uplift Goldman Sachs
Friday, December 03, 2010 by Jamie Ashcroft
Desire Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration struck oil on the Rachel prospect in the North Falklands basin
Desire Petroleums (LON:DES) new discovery will focus attention on the potential of the north Falkland Basin, according to Goldman Sachs.
The investment banking giant believes the oil discovery could prompt a 97 percent uplift for the stock, once it has been de-risked.
We currently value the Rachel prospect at 9p per share for Desire (which has a 92.5% stake), and 3p per share for Rockhopper (7.5% stake), Goldman analyst Christophor Jost said.
A full de-risking of this prospect would result in a 97 percent uplift to our valuation of Desire and 4 percent for Rockhopper ... but we note that it is too early for a full de-risking at this early stage.
Yesterday, Desire announced that the latest well to test the Rachel prospect, struck oil from 2,621 metres.
Desire had more than its share of dusters in the basin both before and after Rockhopper made the Sea Lion discovery nearby. Its most recent well, the first Rachel well, initially disappointed but an inconclusive side-track gave Desire and investors hope.
Initially the first Rachel well failed to find any hydrocarbons, subsequently Desire believed the well was too far away from the mature oil source rock. It therefore sidetracked the well down-dip. The sidetrack encountered oil shows however technical problems stopped any further analysis and the sidetrack was abandoned without a conclusive result.
Now this latest well tested Rachel prospect 1.7 kilometres from the sidetracks bottom hole location, and it appears the explorer's persistence has paid off.
Initial analysis from the discovery well indicates that the well encountered sands and shales with hydrocarbons with 349 metres gross interval, from which it has 57 metres of net pay in multiple zones.
The new Rachel well encountered sands and shales with hydrocarbons from 2,621 to 2,970 metres.
The thickest zone is 8 metres thick with an average porosity of 20 percent, Desire said that the other zones are thinly bedded and lower porosity.
Goldman initiated its coverage on Desire in early November, with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of 197 pence.
This price target is now under review in light of the discovery.
The discovery of oil is a positive in our view, Jost added.
The presence of 20 percent porosity reservoir is also encouraging for both this prospect and the potential for the wider basin as a whole,
We note, however, that the thickest section was 8 metres and that porosity was lower outside this section, which may mean additional work is required before the company is able to comment on commerciality or volumes.
The Falklands play has been grabbing the headlines for most of 2010 and now with two oil discoveries - Rockhopper Explorations Sea Lion was the first the North Falklands basin continues to draw in more and more investors.
Unsurprisingly the news lit the blue touch paper under AIMs North Falkland oil stocks on Thursday.
On AIM Desires shares initially rocketed over 50 percent before pulling back somewhat and it ended the day up almost 30 percent, just above 130 pence.
Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) shares shot up 28 pence, or 8.5 percent to 355 pence. Meanwhile shares in Argos Resources (LON:ARG) whose license area in the basin neighbours Desire's and Rockhoppers shot up as much as 22 percent in early deals.
Some of the Citys other prominent oil and gas analysts also eulogised over the discovery and the prospects for the wider North Basin play.
This morning, Westhouse Securities analyst David Hart described the discovery as a welcome development, particular given Desires earlier problems on the Rachel prospect.
Hart also emphasised the benefits that the second north basin discovery brings.
A second discovery in the basin, following Rockhoppers Sea Lion find, is also beneficial from a development point of view, given the opportunity to share infrastructure across projects, Hart said.
This is particularly important in the case of smaller discoveries which, at this early stage, appears to be the case with Rachel.
In the wake of the discovery Hart gave Desire a revised price target of 142 pence. He gives the oil explorer a Accumulate rating. Meanwhile, the analyst rates Rockhopper as a Buy with an upgraded target price at 496 pence.
He adds: Our new target price for Desire incorporates a smaller resource figure offset by lower risk afforded by the discovery,
Having said that, we have not de-risked the prospect to the extent we have Rockhoppers Sea Lion discovery, given the still limited information available.
Yesterday, Evolution Securities highlighted that the Rachel discovery suggests that the North Falkland basin has the potential to be an important oil province.
Wireline logging is ongoing but initial indications are that the thickest section has good porosity which bodes well for any future flow test and therefore commerciality of the field, Evolution oil analyst David Farrell said.
Farrell upgraded the oil explorer in light of the news. He now rates the stock as a buy with a 180 pence target.
Similarly Northland Capital - formerly Astaire Securities - also had an upbeat view on Desire, now it has an oil discovery of its own.
This looks very positive and vindicates Desire's decision to pursue the Rachel prospect with a second well (largely a consequence of analogous data from Rockhoppers Sea Lion prospect), Northland analyst Andrew McGeary said.
Finally some reward for Desire's endeavours in the form of oil here.
Fox-Davies Capital also featured Desire in its 'Daily Monitor' yesterday and asked: "Have Desire and Rockhopper cracked the North Falkland Basin? Possibly, as Rachel confirms one of the play concepts unravelled by the Sea Lion discovery.
"It remains to be seen though whether reservoir development and quality are sufficient for Rachel to be commercial. Hence this is obviously very good news but still early days," the broker added.