.

Simon Cawkwell's view (EK)


.......Also constantly perking up is Ascent (AST), now 8.5p middle or so. News is on its way and holders should hold very tight. Newbies can snaffle a few as a matter of principle......


.

Nice to see some more "initial coverage".

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/13532/hybridans-small-cap-wrap


I think more and more are waking up to the fact AST is going to have some very exciting times in the coming 6 months. Those exciting times will be made vastly more exciting if they can come to a deal with the European Development bank for debt-finance for Slovenia, as has been suggested already.

If you look at the projects they are all pretty much appraisal.

Slovenia - gas is there, proven, produced some years ago and now looking for sweet spots to tap the main resource.

Anagni/Ripi - proven oil, again, looking for sweet spots.

Swiss - proven gas, appraisal well.

Netherlands - proven gas awaiting farm out to appraise.

Hungary - proven gas, producing now and might look at deeper potential later.

Slovenia starts now, Swiss in Q1 2011, and Anagni maybe Q2 2011. Thats three high impact projects all happening in the coming 6 months.

It looks as if it is well run, and the fact that they are not at the mercy of the sea for their exploration is a big plus.

They are also focused on "mainland Europe" - which negates the political risks too. Such a focus also gives them access to good sales prices for oil and gas.

Hopefully everything on time weather in slovenia dry,cloudy with sunny intervals...

Strong finish to a strong week. Should be spudding news next week for PG11

Market Opening times over the holiday period :

Friday 24 December 2010 Markets close from 12.30
Monday 27 December 2010* Closed all day
Tuesday 28 December 2010* Closed all day
Wednesday 29 December 2010 Normal business day
Thursday 30 December 2010 Normal business day
Friday 31 December 2010 Markets close from 12.30
Monday 3 January 2011* Closed all day
Tuesday 4 January 2011 Normal business day

Tipped at Watshot.com it seems...... as posted on III by ruudboy99

"

http://watshot.com/shop/page-article/action-article.show/id-130009583

Buy Ascent Resources (AST) at 8.25p.

Ascent Resources (AST) has long been a favourite among stock market punters but has proved something of a damp squib in recent years. All that could be set to change now that the company has streamlined its operations to focus on its core assets. With a six-well drilling programme planned for the next twelve months and offering potential upside of as much as 58p per share, Ascent shares could be ready to fly. Speculative buy, at 8.25p.

For the last several years Ascent Resources has been running around like a wet hen trying to juggle a portfolio that was patently too large. From highs of around 30p in the middle of 2008, the shares were trading at just north of 3p by the middle of this year. They have rallied since, reaching 8.25p as I write, but they are still among the cheapest resource plays on AIM, trading at a discount to risked NAV of almost 50%.

Whilst some of the price rebound can be put down to recovering sentiment towards resource stocks, the company has made some important moves in recent months that suggest the shares are worthy of reappraisal. Firstly, non-core assets have been hived off, thereby refocusing the business and strengthening the balance sheet. Secondly, Ascent has secured a one-year loan facility of 2.1 million, with an interest rate of 6% per annum that will be covered by cash flow from existing production in Hungary, and has entered into a 7 million Standby Equity Distribution Agreement with investment company Yorkville Advisors. Consequently, Ascent is now a pure-play European gas concern and it has secured the funding necessary to get things moving in the right direction.

Hungary/Slovenia

A recent CPR (competent persons report) by RPS has confirmed Petisovci-Lovaszi as a significant under-exploited tight gas field with a P50 estimate of reserves in place of 412 Bcf (billion cubic feet). Straddling the Hungarian-Slovenian border, the Petisovci-Lovaszi field has been partially developed in the past, producing 10 Bcf without the benefit of modern drilling and completion technologies. The fact that the reserves which the company is targeting are producing fields substantially de-risks the investment case, making Ascent one of the lowest risk E&Ps out there. Ascent believes a recovery rate of 65% should be achievable from reservoirs of this type, providing a huge re-development opportunity for the company. If only half of that P50 estimate is recoverable, then the AIM company is still looking at a significant share of a 200 bcf redevelopment project, making it comparable to many North Sea developments.

Starting on 16th December, the plan is to drill a vertical well to 3,000 metres using state-of-the-art technology to gather as much data as possible. If successfully flow-tested, the well could be commercialised quickly and easily via existing nearby infrastructure, possibly within as little as six months. The fact that this is an onshore project in a country where drilling is relatively cheap, gas prices are high and theres plentiful nearby infrastructure to bring production quickly onstream, is "one of the delights of this project", according to Managing Director Jeremy Eng.

Ascent is currently producing 1.25 million cubic feet per day (net) from the Peneszlek gas field. The field has produced intermittently during the past two years from three wells, one of which has now been shut in, and is expected to recover 5 Bcf in total by the time the field is abandoned. As of 31 December 2009, Ascent reported net 2P reserves of 1.9 Bcf. Peneszlek will provide Ascent with a useful $5-6 million of net cashflow during the next 18 months. However, with no further production wells planned, Peneszlek is now a depleting asset. As such I do not consider it material for valuation purposes.

Switzerland & Italy

Respectively second and third in order of potential significance are the firm's Swiss and Italian considerations. Although Ascent sold its Swiss acreage in April 2010, it retained an option to back in for 45% of any conventional discovery following the drilling of up to six exploration/appraisal wells. The first of these wells is due to spud in the first quarter of 2011 and will target a gas discovery made in 1982. The Hermrigen-2 appraisal well is targeting an estimated 120 Bcf recoverable within existing discovered sands and several deeper reservoirs. In Italy the final well in the - thus far pretty ambivalent - drilling programme is the Anagni-2 well, which is likely to be drilled in mid-2011. The well is targeting a 5 million barrel shallow oil play onshore Italy.

N.B. The firm also holds a 54% share of acreage in the Netherlands but the licence is due to lapse unless a farm-in partner can be found before the end of the year to help fund an appraisal well costing $26 million. In light of this I do not consider it relevant for valuation purposes.

Valuation & Recommendation

My main reason for recommending Ascent shares at this juncture is its exciting drilling schedule which could provide a material uplift to the valuation over the coming months. First up is Petisovci-Lovaszi, to which broker finnCap attaches a risked valuation of 12.8p per share with upside stretching to 37.6p per share fully unrisked. Drilling Hermrigen in Switzerland, due to get underway in the first quarter of 2011, could add as much as 12.1p per share fully unrisked. Finally, Anagni-2 could be worth 5.7p per share to the company on a fully unrisked basis. 2011 could be a game changer for Ascent and the upside case stretches to a sizeable multiple of the current share price. As such the shares are a speculative buy, at 8.25p.

"

.

Nice and strong again !

Ascent has acquired :)


http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201012211107583573Y


And so has Enquest. Most interesting !!! And value enhancing......

.

Looks an excelent deal to me Pro, very positive!!!!!!!!!!...

They have just upgraded their percentage in Slovenia for a small level of dilution, this should raise the risked NAV upwards now. We will have to wait for revisions taking in the new 75% ownership.

However, Enquest are now very much interested in the future success of Ascent.

One of AST's failings in the past has been that they are great deal makers but lacking on the technical side.

What has happened here is now Enquest will give AST technical support, suddenly little AST is backed up with very strong technical ability on tap.

This transforms AST as well and removes what was a bugbear for many in their limited technical expertise.


So, I find the deal very good for AST, perhaps I am wearing those rose tints, but still........ :)


One would presume that if PG-11 is good then AST will not be AST any more by the end of 2011, it will have been consumed by Enquest and the long suffering AST shareholders will have had a lovely pay off :)

Think it could be well before the end of 2011 Pro, Enquest might find it to tempting to resist if all drilling goes to plan??????..

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201012220700054060Y

Ascent Resources PLC
Drilling of Pg-11 in Slovenia
RNS Number : 4060Y
Ascent Resources PLC
22 December 2010

Ascent Resources plc / Epic: AST / Index: AIM / Sector: Oil and Gas

22 December 2010

Ascent Resources plc ('Ascent' or 'the Company')

Drilling of Pg-11 in Slovenia Commences



Ascent Resources plc, the AIM-traded oil and gas exploration and production company, yesterday commenced drilling the Pg-11 evaluation well in the Petişovci field, a part of the Petişovci-Lovaszi Project in Slovenia and Hungary.

The Pg-11 well is the first to be drilled by Ascent in the Petişovci-Lovaszi project area and the first for 30 years to be drilled in the field area. Recently, the Company announced an independently verified P50 estimate of gas-in-place of 412 Bcf (11.7 Bm3; 68.7 MMboe) for the project area.

The primary objective of the Pg-11 well is to collect state-of-the-art data in order to assist in optimising the re-development of the gas field using the technological advances of the last 30 years. Consequently, the evaluation programme will include core sampling, extensive wireline logging and testing, and the data set will allow 3-D seismic calibration and enhancement of the geological model of the whole project area.

The Pg-11 well is being drilled using Crosco International's Cardwell 1 drilling unit and preliminary results are expected to be available in February 2011. The start of the drilling was delayed by a few days due to the poor weather conditions in the past two weeks and stringent certification procedures.

Ascent's Managing Director Jeremy Eng said, "This is a positive step in the development the Petişovci-Lovaszi Project. Pg-11 is an important well and whilst the main effort is in the evaluation of the Miocene gas reservoirs and the application of new technology to most efficiently developed the gas reserves, we expect that after the evaluation phase the well will be completed as a producing well and will then contribute to cashflow in the medium term."

Ascent, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Ascent Slovenia Limited will have a 75% interest in the Petişovci Project and Slovenian partner, Geoenergo d.o.o. holds 25%.

WELL!! WELL!!! Off we go, soon be February..2 days of RNS's and i'm overdosing!!!!!!

finncap update.

Analyst: Will Arnstein ( warnstein@finncap.com )
0207 220 0543
Morning Note
22 December 2010


Ascent has agreed a 12.8m deal with EnQuest that will see it increase its stake in the Petisovci gas field, in Slovenia, to 75%. With drilling on the field set to commence imminently, Ascent has secured a greater economic interest in what could be a very significant resource and the technical backing of one of the largest independent E&Ps in the UK. We believe these are positive developments that will aid the appraisal programme and lower the risk of commercial failure.

The deal. Ascent has acquired an additional 48.75% stake in the highly prospective deep reservoirs of the Petisovci Concession from EnQuest taking its interest in these zones to 75%. In exchange, EnQuest will receive 150.9m shares in Ascent (equivalent to a 22.5% equity stake), a seat on Ascents Board and nil cost options on a further 29.7m shares subject to the successful development of the Petisovci gas field.

Material secondary benefits. As well as significantly increasing its exposure to the Petisovci project, the acquisition provides several other benefits to Ascent. The most important of these will see EnQuest provide technical support for Ascent in its evaluation of results from the Petisovci appraisal programme and its assessment of the commercial potential of the field. Beyond this, it will assist Ascent in its evaluation of future business development opportunities in Europe and we believe it may act as a corner-stone investor in any near-term fundraising, thereby lowering Ascents financing risk, although there is no formal commitment to this. Finally, the deal removes uncertainty surrounding the stake as Ascent had previously been sole risking EnQuests share of the capex.

Valuation implications. We upgrade our total NAV by 12% to 17.4p/sh to account for the larger working interest in the Petisovci field, the equity dilution and a modest reduction in risk associated with the project. Unrisked, our total NAV increases by 11% to 62.3p/sh providing 6x upside potential

L2 hotting up now.

2 v 1 @ 8.75/9.0


Just HOOD offering at 9p

And the writer of the broker note on AST (Will Arnstein) is currently ranked No 1 Starmine stock picker according to the finncap half year update.

So you have a top man writing how good AST is :)


http://fool.uk-wire.com/Article.aspx?id=201011240843047169W



......... Will Arnstein - oil & gas analyst, previously at Jefferies and currently ranked No 1 Starmine stock picker........

Personally I think one of the major potential upsides of the recent deal is the upside to the GIP figure and ultimately the recoverable amounts of gas.

The CPR by RPS was done based on available information and its very likely to be conservative.

Now, as AST now have 75%, any upside is very very valuable to AST with the three quarters ownership of the potential prize.

I would not be surprised at all if after PG-11 is drilled and extensively tested that we see the CPR updated with much higher volumes of gas in place and recoverable resources estimates.

At which point AST will farm out and likely use debt to fund their share of development costs.

Rose tinted specs I have, but I think the AST team are confident that Slovenia is going to be much larger than what is talked about at present.