HELLO,

MY HEART SAYS BUY, MY HEAD SAYS NO!

ANY THOUGHTS?

Sky News article

mitzy - yep been thinking the same - would not surprise me if this did a woolies

jrm - i wouldnt advise anyone in case i messed up - but personally at the moment its a no for me - last i knew the banking situation is dire and needs to be sorted by april - i dont think that has changed - if it has pls update me

hmv imo kind of got stuck in time and didnt innovate enough - hence they are where they are - if i was an employee i would 1/ be worried 2/ look for alternative employment - poor souls - saw it at woolies, connaught and elsewhere

gibby watching the Sky report this week they really put the boot in saying in effect they are worthless I have never seen such a biased report.

The reporter said he believed they would not be around in 2012.

whoops! i know - this is interesting....

HMV May Need to Sell Waterstone's or Offer Shares to Buy Time

By David Altaner - Jan 21, 2011 11:12 AM GMT

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HMV Group Plc, the U.K.s biggest music and DVD retailer, may need to sell its Waterstones bookstore chain, suspend its dividend or offer shares as time runs short to develop a business model for the digital age.

The retailer probably needs five years to shift its business away from CDs and DVDs and become a web- and mobile phone-based destination, said Mark Mulligan, an analyst at Forrester Research. With a banking covenant test due in April and suppliers having credit insurance reduced, it may need to buy time to implement such a strategy.

Selling the 311-store Waterstones chain might fetch as much as 75 million pounds ($119 million), according to Nick Bubb at Arden Partners. Eliminating the dividend would save about 31 million pounds for the Maidenhead, England-based retailer, which is diversifying into live music venues to boost sales as competition increases from supermarkets and online retailers.

It would let them clear the decks to play another day, said Bubb, who rates the shares neutral. The danger is, they dont sell Waterstones, and die a death of 1,000 cuts.

HMVs shares have fallen every year since 2005, plunging 66 percent in 2010, and trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of less than three. The stock fell as much as 3.25 pence, or 14 percent, to 20.25 pence in London trading today, the lowest since a 2002 initial public offering. HMVs market value of 91 million pounds is a fraction of the 845 million pounds that Permira Advisers Ltd. offered for the company in 2006.

HMV said this month that profit would be at the lower end of analyst estimates and the covenant test would be tight. The retailer also said it will close 60 U.K. outlets in 2011 after reporting a 14 percent decline in same-store sales at U.K. and Irish HMV stores in the 10 weeks ended Jan. 1.

gibby I may buy around 12p but realistically they are looking doomed.

they are in serious trouble - so many things might happen - but i would say they should continue in reverse at least to 15 - 17p minimum thanks to the likely breach of bankin covenants - i think the analyst estimate of 'tight' for the covnant test is generous imo - personally i have not been into an hmv for years - how many others - hmv will imo probably be sold, or exist as an almost completely different entity once they have torn up their old road map which was clearly useless - hmv shares fallen every year since 2005! even if the weather was better around xmas i honestly dont think it would have made much difference to hmv's troubles

12p - yep - if you do keep a very close eye on them more than usual - once waterstones flogged if they go that route is a big hole in their asset sheet - still following this one but should continue in reverse for now - with usual day trading etc glad i kept clear here again today - but never say never! he who dares & all that - have a good weekend

i can see absolutely no reason to buy hmv, for their problems are surely exacerbated by the continuing poor performanc of the high street in general ..... is there enough "meat" to make hmv worth shorting? ..... possibly though it's not quite so clear cut as it was with CNT

Have to agree, with intense competition and austerity measures kicking in it is difficult to see a way out for HMV. One to keep clear of imho.

Observer.

HMV is chart-topper for short sellers Troubled entertainment retailer is first choice for investors betting on falling share prices

bookseller Sussex Stationers gone into administration - another competitor to Waterstones out of the way

the bookshop chain also one of the last ones left on the high street

I hardly think the demise of a small player is something to celebrate. Rather they are a symptom of the problem that managements face, esp. if they ignore the obvious.....Woolworth being the most recent example, having already taken jobs and shareholder funds to the abys.

It's possible HMV can be rescued, or that they have done this already and the Market hasn't cottoned-on. I'm swaying in the breeze on this, not wanting to add to my losses, Marconi, Woolworths, ROK and so on.

It seems to be a monstrous dereliction of Duty that our Regulators cannot undertake a review of the events leading to large failures, perhaps in the hope they might be avoided in the future. After they are never short when it comes to lifting money from the Public to run their empires.

I fear HMV will join that list, given a little more time.

what on earth have the regulators got to do with the demise of a retailer, unless there has been some criminal wrongdoing?

Nothing at all. Cannot blame regulators for a failure of business strategy. The share price has been slipping downhill every year since 2005 - plenty of time in which to do something about it. Any investor who has chosen to hang on instead of selling at some set exit level can blame nobody but themselves.

Ordinary business failure is not for Regulators, I agree.#However, these are FTSE companies that support the pensions of investors and shareholders have only the RNS and what the Co tells us. Also, consider the employees, they spend money in the economy.
Yet it seems in the case of (Marconi, Woolworths, ROK and several more), the company suddenly collapses having given "OK" signals.

Call it self Delusion, or hope that "something will turn up" - but that is hardly the basis for continuing business as usual, in what might be considered a ship that's holed below the water-line......continuing to take-on passengers might be regarded as dishonest, if not "criminal"?

If as has been suggested that nothing has been done (causing the sp decline), then the Market is not creating any desire by the Execs to act. Yet they continue to tell the Market things are about the recover (how I read the An.Report), so they continue to offer platitudes, rather than harsh root/branch action.

When there is a train/AIr-crash there is an investigation to establish what might be learnt. All I'm suggesting is that Regulators need to be stomping about the debris to understand what action might be effective "next-time" - otherwise they will continue to provide bundles of "Rules" that are unlikely to provide any comfort for investors - otherwise what's the whole purpose of Regulation?

((As an aside, are you happy with the existing Regulations that our Banks are enjoying?))

http://www.forexpros.com/news/stock-market-news/scenarios-what%27s-in-store-for-struggling-uk-retailer-hmv%20-193839

A bit of a squeeze.

HMV warns of potential covenant breach



http://www.growthcompany.co.uk/news/1605728/hmv-warns-of-potential-covenant-breach.thtml

Dire Staits comes to mind.