Thought it about time we had a separate thread for currency plays.

Charts Currently Removed - New Ones To Follow Soon

Good Reading If You Like FX
http://www.mizuhobank.com/fin_info/exchange.html

The third arrow!

So its been dubed, you'd expect it to drive the Nikkei on a nice gradual upwards path if risk is adopted. As for Yen I'd expect this to create some demand for the currency so would think GBP/JPY and USD/JPY would top off, maybe 173 for G/J would make a nice shorting point, I'll wait and see.

With Carney in front of the TSC today also GBP/EUR could well see a fall, rate increases will be slow and steady I think, we're too near to a general election for anything else in my view, GBP/USD & GBP/EUR could both be quick shorters. Eyes down!!

Whilst I have a sec, there we have it, a Hawkish Carney yesterday seeing the pound off highs... I think Euro will now fall to test the 1.22 support level and as such will short GBP/EUR.

Long EUR/GBP 0.80228.

LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - Sterling inched lower on Wednesday, adding to its biggest fall against the euro in more than a month after the latest salvo from Bank of England policymakers left investors increasingly confused over the outlook for interest rates. With Britain's economy steadily improving, the game on the pound for the past few months has been a to and fro on expectations for when the bank will deliver a first, potentially small and precautionary, rise in interest rates. Money markets suggest many investors expect that to be as early as November. However, a number of analysts and dealers say Governor Mark Carney has muddied the waters after two performances in a week that pushed market expectations on timing first one way then the other. On Tuesday Carney pushed back slightly against expectations the bank will raise rates before the end of this year, saying the economy still has slack to work through. ID:nL6N0P52WP Criticism of the governor by the head of parliament's Treasury committee made the front page of the Financial Times on Wednesday. "Carney did himself no favours at all yesterday. People feel he is flipping and flapping over rates," said one London-based foreign exchange dealer. "As a central banker you should seek to provide clear guidance and a consistent message. This guy is not giving that at the moment. The net effect today anyway is that people are less sure about a rate rise by the end of the year." Sterling was around 0.2 percent lower against both the dollar and the euro on Wednesday. It fell to a one-week low against the dollar of $1.6952 GBP=D4 while the euro rose to 80.315 pence, its highest in nearly two weeks. The outlook for sterling looks positive though compared to the dollar, euro, yen or Swiss franc as markets still expect the BoE will be the first of the four major central banks to raise interest rates. "At the end of the day this is the only central bank currently talking actively about raising interest rates," said Graham Davidson, a currency trader with Australian bank NAB in London. "The market had been very long of sterling before yesterday's comments by Carney and it was only natural that we came off a bit. But I don't see us coming much further." Worries that the UK housing market is again overheating, and will eventually need to be calmed by more than just tighter practical controls on mortgage lending, support the argument for a rate rise before year-end. The BoE's latest financial stability report on Thursday may provide more food for thought on that front.

Carney effect.

Yep, lets see how long it lasts shall we....

LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - Sterling hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis on Tuesday after a survey showed British manufacturing growing at its fastest in seven months, adding to the case for a rise in interest rates this year. The PMI index of sentiment among manufacturing purchasing managers rose to 57.5 in June from 57.0 in May - its highest since November and well above the 50 line that divides growth from contraction. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the index to fall to 56.8. ECONGB The survey adds to evidence that Britain's consumer-led recovery is becoming more balanced and sustainable. The numbers are likely to reassure policymakers looking for a more broad-based recovery based on greater exports, manufacturing and business investment. ID:nL9N0O500C Sterling rose to $1.7162 GBP=D4 , up around 0.25 percent on the day. In contrast to the UK data, U.S. data disappointed with the Institute for Supply Management's index of national factory activity at 55.3 in June, almost unchanged from May's 55.4 reading. But it was under the 55.8 reading a Reuters poll expected. The euro fell 0.3 percent to 79.765 pence EURGBP=D4 from around 80.05 pence before the UK data. Against a basket of major currencies, sterling hit its highest in nearly six years, rising to 88.6, data from the bank of England showed. =GDP . Some traders said expectations for robust growth and an ensuing Bank of England hike in interest rates for the first time in seven years now looked well priced into sterling. The last month has shown, however, that the currency will still move on changes in expectations on how early that first hike might come. "We're already looking at a decent consensus 3 percent growth for this year," said Simon Smith, head of research at FxPro. "Stronger PMIs will solidify that perception but I don't think they're necessarily going to cause sterling to run away unless we have anything from the central bank that's going to cause markets to believe that things are shifting on that front," he said. BoE policymakers have massaged expectations on the timing of their first move in a series of comments over the past month. The market is divided over whether they could move as early as November this year or wait until well into 2015. Either way, the bank is firmly expected to be the first of the world's major central banks to tighten monetary policy and that has driven a roughly 10 percent gain in the past year. The BoE starts a two-day policy meeting next Wednesday where it is widely expected not to make any changes. On Thursday, the European Central Bank's governing council meets and is expected to keep policy unchanged after lowering rates just last month. "We think sterling has a had a good run, both against the dollar and the euro," said Ian Gunner, portfolio manager at Altana Hard Currency Fund. "Against the dollar, much would depend on how the U.S. payrolls data is on Thursday." Economists polled by Reuters expect 212,000 jobs to have been added in June, for the fifth straight month of gains above 200,000, which is a run unmatched since the period from September 1999 to January 2000. A weaker-than-expected payrolls report could see the U.S. dollar .DXY suffer more. The dollar has shed 0.7 percent against a basket of currencies .DXY in June, on growing expectations that U.S. interest rates will not be heading higher anytime soon.

July 4 (Reuters) - The dollar struggled to make more headway on Friday after a jump in U.S. job creation left stock markets in optimistic mood but did not convince traders it would be a trigger for the U.S. Federal Reserve to move toward higher interest rates. Sterling, not for the first time in recent months the main weekly winner on major currency markets, was back on the verge of almost six-year highs against the dollar. The dollar's failure to launch has been the big disappointment on currency markets this year. Solid U.S. jobs numbers for the fifth month running backed the analysts who have begun again to predict it may take off in the coming months. Against that, the euro continues to be backed by inflows of cash into European bond and stock markets and also by talk in the market of buying by Asian central banks recycling the dollar reserves they are accumulating into other currencies. After a half-cent swing after the jobs numbers on Thursday ID:nLNS3IEAIF , the dollar was just over 0.1 percent higher against the euro on Friday. EUR=EBS "You're getting this sort of muted reaction maybe because no-one is that convinced these numbers will really change the Fed's outlook," said Daragh Maher, a strategist with HSBC in London. "It played reasonably well yesterday as a dollar positive, but the scale of the move has not been so big. It has gained, just not that much." Maher drew parallels with the recent play on sterling, driven higher by investors' conviction that strong UK economic numbers would eventually prompt the Bank of England to shift to a more hawkish tone on interest rates. That seems to have happened in the past month, with Governor Mark Carney and colleagues hinting that the bank could even raise rates for the first time before the end of the year. Fed chief Janet Yellen, however, for now has offered little sign of heading in the same direction. "It seems as though people are slightly more reluctant to take on the Fed in the way we saw with the Bank of England," Maher said. "But maybe there comes a tipping point with data like this where the message has to change." CROWN DOWN After some early sales of euro in European time, the dollar touched its highest in a week at $1.3587 per euro. Against a trade-weighted basket of currencies .DXY it was last at 80.279, having climbed as far as 80.315 after the jobs numbers. Against the yen, it hovered near a two-week high at 102.06 JPY= . It was up 0.7 percent so far this week, on track for its best performance in 2-1/2 months. The Swedish crown crashed 2 full percentage points in value on Thursday after the country's central bank slashed its interest rates by a half point to just 0.25 percent and gave a dim outlook on growth that hinted more might be in the pipeline. Poor industrial output numbers added to concerns about the prospect of deflation in Sweden and prodded the crown a further 0.3 percent lower on Friday. "The Riksbank acted decisively against Swedish deflation risks yesterday (but) given the zero lower bound, the Swedish krona needs to weaken a lot further," said Alvin Tan, a strategist with French bank Societe Generale in London. "Despite the recent fall in the crown, it remains too high in trade-weighted terms, whether in real or nominal terms. The Riksbank needs a weaker krona, and it has historically been willing to pursue unconventional policies in extremis."

LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - Sterling edged down on Monday as traders continued to be cautious over events in Ukraine and Gaza and as data added to a sense that Britain's economic recovery might be coming off the boil. Numbers released on Monday showed British consumer confidence dipped for the first time in 2014 in June, with spending on gas and electricity around 2.5 percent lower than a year ago. ID:nL6N0PT4ID Separate data showed asking prices for British houses had fallen for the first time this year. ID:nL6N0PT31L Concerned about Ukraine and Gaza, investors have pulled money out of sterling, putting it instead into traditionally safer currencies such as the yen, Swiss franc and the dollar. Sterling was down 0.1 percent against the dollar at $1.7075, over a cent lower than last week's near six-year high of $1.7192 GBP=D4 . "It doesn't seem very comfortable at $1.71 and we've seen it fall off quite sharply, but I think that's more about a slight dollar move," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com. "Also I think we're a bit risk-off," Brooks said. Against the euro, the pound was flat 79.20 pence EURGBP=D4 . Traders are awaiting minutes on Wednesday from the latest meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee for any signs of when a first interest rate hike in seven years might happen. The market is pricing in a slight chance that will come in November GBPOIS=ICAP . Data last week showed UK inflation in June at a higher-than-expected 1.9 percent, just shy of the BoE's 2 percent target, prompting investors to increase bets that the rate rise will come before the end of the year. But some traders said that despite that expectation, there were a number of risks that could weigh on sterling and could inject the market with a dose of a volatility. "Tailwinds from BoE hikes may not be enough to offset growing downside risks (for sterling). Investor concerns about the Scottish referendum in September, general elections next May and a potential ... "Brexit" (Britain leaving the European Union) could ... fuel FX implied volatility," analysts from Citigroup said in a research note.

Debating a EUR/GBP long position..

Bit easier to see with the Tenkan-sen in yellow.

Shortie, I note you created this thread. Did you leave out the Euro sign
in the heading because your keyboard, like mine, doesn't have the Euro key?

Its on number 4 along the top, I couldn't work out if it was 'shift', 'ctrl', 'alt' and the number to get it or a combination and just gave up in the end.

EUR/GBP looking overbought on the 5 following a bounce off 1.27

Its CTRL, ALT 4 €

The nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates at 0.5%, as expected.

They agreed that while "employment had continued to increase robustly... wage growth had been surprisingly weak".

Wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to a record low 0.7% in the three months to May.

The committee also said there might be a "modest slowing in output growth" in the second half of the year.

The minutes read: "There were early signs that global growth was weakening, and an unexpected increase in interest rates when real wages were not yet rising could... destabilise the recovery.

"The committee agreed that no increase was warranted at this meeting, although for some members the decision had become more balanced in the past few months than earlier in the year".