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Traders Thread - Week commencing Monday 17th September 2018 (TRAD)     

CC - 20 Sep 2018 08:18 - 41 of 67

Good morning.

Watching Kier. Opened limit up over 5% and now is down 2.4%.

18% of the stock has been lent out for shorting. Results looked good to me.

CC - 20 Sep 2018 08:20 - 42 of 67

oh and RBS heading for 260 and LLOY for 61. Strange how fast things change.

CC - 20 Sep 2018 09:02 - 44 of 67

Markets seem to be agreeing Skinny. The buying on RBS and LLOY looks like traders in a hurry rather than what we've had for the last 3 months is that buyers have had plenty of time to think.

On another topic. Kier the place to be today. Opened at 1100, dropped to 1000, now back at 1100. Think those shorts are going to have trouble closing. Rest of sector doesn't seem that bothered

Fred1new - 20 Sep 2018 09:24 - 45 of 67

Somebody put the coffee on.

I wish I could have a portfolio where the choice of movement for more than a day is up.

It seems other than banks what went up yesterday is meandering down to-day.

Perhaps TM is listening to:

"I have overheard their plans
There will be no attack tonight
They intend to starve us out
Before they start a proper fight
Concentrate their force
Hit us from the right."

skinny - 20 Sep 2018 09:39 - 46 of 67

GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.2% 0.7%

UK shoppers keep on spending as August retail sales smash forecasts

CC - 20 Sep 2018 10:22 - 47 of 67

Imho the market is mostly wandering around a the moment based on the strength or weakness of the pound based on economic data and Brexit.

Good news on Brexit means FTSE falls due to reduced value of dividends in pounds (e.g. RBSB & BP.). Likewise LLOY should rise on good Brexit news or rising interest rates but often the sell bots just sell everything for a while, until the investors arrive and start pushing LLOY up.

You can see it all over the place right now and clearly see how much of the algo trades are based on the exchange rate. Some of them appear very badly programmed and whilst this has worked for a long time, they seem to fail to differentiate between "brexit is fixed, so profits will fly, therefore go long" and instead go "exchange rate indicates cost of debt rises, therefore go short"


You can see this today on INTU and HMSO. With retail sales figures being really good I would have expected them to rise, based on rationale of retailers profits improve equals rent stable or going up, but deffo not worse. However, what's actually happened is some algo has thrown significant sell volume at INTU presumably on basis of the cost of their debt will rise and repatriated profits in euros will be down as indicated by the exchange rate."
I'm running with good retail sales indicates improving economy equals good for retailers, the algos are running with the opposite. Some 40 minutes after the data the "investors" are starting to arrive and the price has at least stabilised.
Or put another way the algo's logic is "retail sales up" = short retailers. I assume by the same logic "retail sales down" = buy retailers.

So, as I indicated I think some of the current anomalies in the market are due to stupid algo's running proxy trades, which will have worked for the last year but now we come to the turning point, are going to get badly burnt.

At least that's my theory. Make of it as you will. I see rising interest rates as part of a growing strong economy repairing itself after years of under-investment and recession. Others appear to see rising interest rates as the devil in disguise, with the cost of increased debt ready to paint red all over companies profits.

Anyway I'm long INTU intraday. The algo's and one large buyer are having a fight. Neither is winning at the moment. We will see what happens later. So far in 50 minutes I've covered the spread and my trading costs although that could disappear in an instant.

Stan - 20 Sep 2018 10:38 - 48 of 67

Morning all.

skinny - 20 Sep 2018 10:45 - 49 of 67

40817035-hurry-up-nice-grandfather-point

Stan - 20 Sep 2018 10:51 - 50 of 67

...Well it's like this 🤭

skinny - 20 Sep 2018 11:01 - 51 of 67

tenor.gif

skinny - 20 Sep 2018 11:02 - 52 of 67

GBP 10-y Bond Auction 1.60|1.9 1.46|2.2

Fred1new - 20 Sep 2018 11:10 - 53 of 67

CC,

Thank you.

When, or if, I say my prays before I go to sleep tonight I will read that post again and then ask god to guide me the correct direction during the night as what decisions I should make, if or when I wake up in the morning.

As an atheist, I don't think I will be any more enlightened.

So it will be back to uninformed guesswork.

CC - 20 Sep 2018 13:20 - 54 of 67

haha Fred. When I make money I'm completely in tune with the market and a genius. When I lose money I'm still right and the city boys couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag.

Anyways cable getting close to 1.33. A significant move. FTSE is doing well not to fall given sterling strength today

skinny - 20 Sep 2018 13:40 - 55 of 67

zD4SbQn.png

skinny - 20 Sep 2018 14:43 - 56 of 67

FTSE/DOW without the false April gap in the MAM chart above.

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=uk%3aukx&uf=

skinny - 20 Sep 2018 15:31 - 57 of 67

GoldChart.ashx?w=800&h=300&hours=24&curr

CC - 20 Sep 2018 16:38 - 58 of 67

Interesting times. I am off tomorrow.

It's witching. Triple witching I think.

Which means we should get some proper direction once that's over.

dreamcatcher - 21 Sep 2018 05:32 - 59 of 67

Good morning or afternoon for Stan when he rolls out of bed. :-))

skinny - 21 Sep 2018 06:21 - 60 of 67

Good morning.

The Papers
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