I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

I am not trading at this time but waiting to trade - I hold just a quarter unit in order to keep the s/h discounts. Clearly the reason I am tracking is because of the likely 20/30% drop any minute ..... two peeps have just been arrested around the area :-)).


ains

why

i think he was banned for annoying other posters,u know wot he was up to.

kayak

i dont trade this share.

You seem to only trade insults at this time and not aware you have ever traded shares ..... looks like an another alias

Is this share going to fall big time when the war starts because I 'm in.

Yes it will fall

so why hold this mysterious quarter unit? why not sell and buy back lower?

mind you, i suppose you bought it at c300p, so you've really done yr money already

If you read past threads you will note I bought at sub a - made lots and held on to a quarter unit for the shareholder benefits etc ..... it's my way (and my money .... and still in profit)


ains


Market report: Thursday close
Michael Clark, Evening Standard 13 February 2003

OW-FLYING shares of British Airways have put investors on full alert amid fears the carrier will again lose its place among the top-flight companies that make up the FTSE 100.





The shares slipped 1 3/4p to 111p after some damning criticism by Credit Suisse First Boston, which shocked the City by slashing its 12-month target price from 135p to just 87p. If BA's share price comes remotely within the target range set by the broker, it is certain the group will be relegated from the top 100 in next month's quarterly reshuffle.


BA regained its place among the blue-chips last year following a steep decline in its share price and news of heavy losses. It regained its position at the first attempt in December but, with the price having declined from about 160p since the start of the year, things are again looking bleak. CSFB is worried that the industry's downturn is more secular than cyclical. Despite strong delivery on BA's Future Size and Shape strategy, there are concerns that structural problems may prevent margins recovering to their previous peak.

FRANKFURT, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Deutsche BA BAY.L has complained to German cartel authorities about Deutsche Lufthansa AG's LHAG.DE low prices on local flights and accused the national carrier of trying to push it out of the market.
Loss-making Deutsche BA, a unit of British Airways and acquisition candidate for low-cost carrier easyJet EZJ.L , said on Friday Lufthansa's latest pricing programme, which offers some roundtrip tickets within Germany for 88 euros ($95), was meant to pressure its rivals.

"Why are they offering such prices as a full service carrier?" said Deutsche BA Commercial Director Rudolph Hengefeld. "To push competition out of the German market."



LONDON (AFX) - Terminal two at London's Heathrow airport, focus of a major security alert since Tuesday, was partly evacuated as police investigated a suspect package, police said.
rom/mc/jlw

Staying with my minimum 1/4 unit at this time but have accumulated the cash for taking this to 2 units in due course

ains



MAJOR US airlines raised airfares $10 (6.20) each way effective immediately, in an attempt to counter steep fuel price increases that threaten an already struggling industry.

Continental Airlines became the first major US airline to raise fares to cover rising fuel costs. American Airlines, quickly matched the increase.

Fuel is one of the highest and least predictable costs facing airlines. In the past, a number of airlines have added what they called temporary fuel surcharges.

War now looks certain and my position remains one of tracking for a buy



S Times extract


February 16, 2003

War threatens to ground business
Dominic O'Connell and David Smith



BRITISH AIRWAYS and Virgin Atlantic are drawing up plans to ground part of their fleets in the event of war with Iraq. Airlines, tour operators and hoteliers are expected to be the British businesses hardest hit by the looming conflict in the Middle East.
BA, BMI British Midland and Virgin suffered severe disruption at their Heathrow base last week when armed troops encircled the airport, and terminals were closed after the discovery of suspicious objects.

Rod Eddington, BAs chief executive, said that in the event of a prolonged conflict, the airline would not hesitate to cut capacity. We will need to move quickly, just as quickly as we did after September 11, he said.

War would hit traffic on BAs all-important transatlantic routes, and on its extensive network of flights to the Gulf. Eddington said it was too early to say whether last weeks airport terror scares had harmed bookings. What would really be a problem would be if other countries started putting out advice to their citizens against travelling to the UK as a result, he said.

Eddington rubbished suggestions BA would be put out of business by war with Iraq. We have 1.8 billion in cash, and 2 billion of other assets from which we could raise money. We are in good shape, he said.

02/17 14:21
British Airways, Air France Cancel Flights Amid Snow (Update1)
By Andrea Rothman


London, Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- British Airways Plc, Air France SA and KLM Royal Dutch Airlines NV canceled more than 18 flights to New York, Washington and other points on the U.S. Eastern seaboard because of a snowstorm.

British Airways canceled 13 flights this morning and early afternoon, including a Concorde supersonic service to New York's JFK Airport, three to Washington and one to Philadelphia and Newark. It also canceled one returning flight from Washington and one from Newark. Air France dropped three to New York and one to Philadelphia. KLM canceled its two daily New York flights.

``We suggest that all passengers planning to fly to the East Coast call the airline before departure,'' said Air France in an e- mailed statement.

A blizzard warning for parts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut is in effect because a storm that dumped up to 19 inches (48 centimeters) of snow on Washington is heading north, the National Weather Service said.

Snow and wind gusting to 40 miles per hour will produce whiteout conditions that can make driving impossible, the Weather Service said. As much as 18 inches of snow is expected before the storm heads out to sea, the Weather Service said.

British Airways said it is watching the weather on the East Coast and will make decisions about whether to fly as each flight comes up. It advised passengers to look on its website, BA.COM, or call a toll-free number that has been set up for passengers to rebook their flights. That number in the U.K. is 0800 727 800.

Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd., the U.K.'s second-largest carrier, said it canceled its nine daily flights to New York, as well as its Boston and Washington flights.

Deutsche Lufthansa AG hasn't canceled any of its 20 flights to the U.S. today, said Thomas Jachnow, Lufthansa spokesman.

SAS Scandinavian Airlines System hasn't canceled any flights, said SAS spokesman Ulf Thorne. It sent two flights to Newark earlier in the day.

Interesting to see that BAY is climbing back towards 120p as war talk is a little more muted - Tony Blair currently live on CNBC



ains

FRANKFURT, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Deutsche BA said on Tuesday its parent British Airways Plc BAY.L would negotiate with other potential parties to sell its loss-making German unit if easyJet EZJ.L does not exercise its option to buy Deutsche BA.
Deutsche BA said it would continue in its drive to become a low-cost airline in cooperation with easyJet.

Deutsche BA and the pilots union earlier confirmed that talks between the two sides over a new pay structure, crucial for a possible takeover by European no-frills giant easyJet, had collapsed on Tuesday.


SYDNEY (AFX-ASIA) - Qantas Airways Ltd will sack 2,500 staff as part of a contingency plan to be implemented to protect profit margins if war breaks out in Iraq, the Sydney Morning Herald reported, without citing sources.
It said the plan is based on the assumption that passenger numbers would fall between 15-20 pct.

Qantas lost 15 mln aud before interest and tax from its international business in the six months to December 2001, when passenger numbers fell in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attack on the US.

marian.carroll@afxnews.com

franklin have bought another 1.1 million share - making 76 million in all or 7%


ains

Record 131m fails to lift Qantas
Bill Condie, Evening Standard 20 February 2003

ANTAS Airways, which is 17%-owned by British Airways, more than doubled its net* profit to a record A$352.5m (131m) for the six months ended December, well above forecasts. The Aussie carrier has been one of BA's better investments, delivering about 20m in dividends* last year.




But investors concentrated on the potential damage to future profits of war in Iraq to push the shares down 10%. At one stage, they were trading at A$3.35, down 11.8%, their lowest since October 2001.


The dramatic improvement to Qantas' bottom line was due to several factors. Its half-year result last time was hit by a collapse in international air travel after 9/11, but since then traffic has rebounded sharply. Qantas' domestic market has also seen a huge shake-up, with the collapse of rival Ansett. Qantas is now by far the dominant local player, although Sir Richard Branson's discount carrier Virgin Blue is closing in, with almost 30% of the market.


Despite the record profit, Qantas chief executive Geoff Dixon was downbeat. He warned that war in Iraq could depress passenger traffic. 'Our general scenario is if there is a war of any length at all, it (traffic decline) would be 15% to 20%,' he said. 'Forward bookings for the next 16 weeks have slowed considerably in some markets, including Japan, Europe and the United Kingdom.'


Qantas will take several steps to deal with tough market conditions, he added. These would include a reduction in domestic and international operations from next month.


He also prepared the market for up to 1,500 job cuts which may be necessary in the event of war. But Dixon said none were on the cards yet.


However, he thought the airline's planned leisure travel unit would perform well: 'We expect to improve our margins as we continue to roll out our strategy to operate all-economy class aircraft on leisure routes that have little or no demand for business travel.'

I think GB has gone mad ..... the Taxes are already a significant part of short haul trip and as they say - we need this like 'a hole in the head'


ains


Holidaymakers face 100 tax hit
Jonathan Oliver, Mail on Sunday 23 February 2003

HE cost of a family holiday is set to soar by 100 under a hike in airport tax planned by Gordon Brown. The shock move, expected to bring in 1bn to the Treasury, has infuriated industry chiefs who predicted it would lead to thousands of job losses at a time of plummeting passenger numbers against a backdrop of terrorism and war with Iraq.




A Ministerial review of the charges, to be announced soon, is expected to lead to a doubling of air passenger duty from 5 to 10 for economy class flights to Europe and from 20 to 40 for journeys further afield. Such a rise would add an extra 100 to the cost of a holiday in Florida for a family of five.


But airlines claimed this would 'cripple' business and target the poor, who would no longer be able to afford foreign holidays.


The move will be seen as yet another stealth tax by the Chancellor who is struggling to fill a black hole in public finances. Industry insiders claimed the Treasury was using environmental considerations as an excuse to increase the tax.


A spokesman for the Freedom to Fly coalition, which represents airlines and airport operators, said: 'If Ministers have to consider a new tax on travellers, so be it. But they can't have picked a worse time to launch this idea. The industry is just recovering from the effects of 11 September, and now we have to brace ourselves for war in the Gulf.'


However, the rise will appease green campaigners who say the aviation industry has long been undertaxed and airport expansion-threatens to blight thousands of homes with air and noise pollution.


Airlines pay no tax on aviation fuel, an anomaly guaranteed by an international agreement dating back to the end of the Second World War, and airline tickets are exempt from VAT.


The aviation industry also benefits from duty free shopping, a perk worth 500m a year despite having been abolished for flights within the EU.


Friends of the Earth claims that aviation benefits from subsidies and tax breaks are worth 9bn a year. This means that flying from London to Manchester, for instance, is sometimes cheaper than travelling by train. They say jets are one of the biggest generators of greenhouse gases.


Paul de Zylva, of the group, said: 'The industry has grown fat with special treatment. It is time it paid an appropriate level of tax, related to the pollution it produces.'


A rise in airport tax would be a major U-turn in Treasury policy. In last year's Budget, the Chancellor announced cuts in air passenger duty for some flights.


The row over the taxes comes as the aviation industry is lobbying for nine new runways to be built in Britain. Three of these are likely to be in the South-east.


A Treasury spokesman said: 'We plan to have a discussion with stakeholders on the most effective economic instrument for ensuring the aviation industry is encouraged to take account of its contribution to global warming and air and noise pollution.'


Easyjet spokesman Toby Nichol said: 'The industry needs this like another 11 September. The way to do it is to do it as a proportion of the fare. If you pay more for your fare, you pay more tax.'




2003 Associated Newspapers Ltd.

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - British Airways BAY.L has cut services to the Gulf and is to lodge stop-over crews in Cyprus after a British worker was shot dead in Saudi Arabia and as war looms in Iraq, the carrier said on Monday.
Europe's largest airline said the decision to stop using Gulf hotels followed a change in security advice from the British Foreign Office.

"The planes will still go down to the Gulf but the crews won't stay in the hotels which we would normally use down in the Gulf region," a British Airways spokesman told Reuters. "They will spend their days of rest in Larnaca, Cyprus."

The carrier also said it was reducing the number of flights from London to Dubai to one a day from two and had suspended services to Muscat, Oman, from Abu Dhabi.

"It's all part of the safety and security of the operations," said the spokesman.

Last week, a gunman shot dead a British defence contractor working for BAE Systems in Saudi Arabia.

On Monday, the world united behind demands that Iraq begin destroying its longer-range missiles or face U.N. Security Council action that could finally trigger war.

British Airways is cutting 13,000 jobs and slashing capacity in response to a slump in demand for air travel caused by economic uncertainty and the September 11 plane attacks in the United States in 2001.

British Airways warned this month its return to profits would be under threat if war broke out.

February 25, 2003

EU seeks finish to 'national' airlines concept
By Russell Hotten



THE European Commission is to demand that member governments give up the idea of national airlines, marking another step towards allowing mergers between flag carriers.
Tomorrow the Commission is due to request that member governments drop the right to negotiate aviation deals with states outside the EU, and give airlines from other countries outside their own equal rights to fly from airports.

The move is part of the Commissions attempt to create a truly open market in European aviation, but which could still take several years to impose.

Last November the European Court of Justice gave a boost to the Commissions ambitions when it ruled that parts of the existing bilateral agreement with the United States broke European Union laws.

Airlines such as British Airways, Iberia or KLM are restricted from consolidation by national governments which have preserved national carriers as symbols of statehood.

The EU executive tomorrow will tell members that it is time to recognise airlines as community carriers, not national carriers.

The Commission claims that this would thereby unblock consolidation within the airline industry by removing existing provisions that discriminate on the basis of nationality.

The Commission says the current system of bilateral pacts is preventing the creation of a true single European aviation market and stopping much-needed consolidation.

The nationality clauses within aviation pacts complicated merger plans between British Airways and KLM in 1998. The talks were eventually aborted amid uncertainty over whether the new carrier could keep its flying rights in both countries.

Rod Eddington, BA chief executive, has said that consolidation among national airlines is essential, and he has recently hinted that he would like a deal with Iberia should regulations allow.

Meanwhile, easyJet, Europes biggest budget airline, confirmed yesterday that it wanted to acquire take-off and landing slots at Orly airport, in Paris, used by the collapsed Air Lib.

However, Ray Webster, easyJets chief executive, who was in Paris yesterday, said the acquisition of the slots could not be conditional on hiring part of Air Libs workforce.

EasyJet is drawing up plans to apply for about 20,000 slots at Orly.

02/25 08:25
EasyJet Lowered Fares 6% to Attract More Passengers (Update1)
By James Regan


London, Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- EasyJet Plc, Europe's largest low-cost airline, charged 6 percent lower fares in the four months through January and said first-half prices will drop in line with rival Ryanair Holdings Plc as it seeks to attract passengers.

``They are experiencing quite a bit of yield pressure here,'' said Morgan Stanley analyst Martin Borghetto, who rates the stock ``overweight.'' The comparison with Ryanair implies EasyJet's fares in the six months ended March 31 might be down as much as 10 percent from the previous year, he said.

Ryanair featured on todays Working Lunch after they cancelled 100000 trips ..... hmmmmmmm ..... interesting comparison made between them and BA in terms of service and what you get.

Pleased I fly BA and let them have the worries if something goes wrong .... end conclusion wws very much 'you get what you pay for'



ains