I have been a holder of this stock for the past 8 months and intent to hold for at least two years to gain the maximum CGT relief as its AIM listed.

I have topped up my holding recently as TPA looks well undervalued to me at the current price of 19.5p.

Reasons as follows:

2004 results (due in March) should show 85% growth on 2003 - EPS of 1.3p. This will give a historic PE of 15 at the current price.

Estimates for 2005 indicate a further 46% growth in earnings to 1.9p which could, IMO, be conservative considering the impact of the big contracts signed in 2004 are yet to fully kick in. The PE estimate is only 10.26 for 2005 - way too low IMO for a growth company.

2006 estimates are for 2.4p of EPS (PE 8.1) - this is why I am holding for at least 2 years - the shares should double to 40p if things stay on track and CGT will be only 5 or 10% with the taper relief.

The earnings have high visibility and should be rated as such - most contracts are signed for 3 or 5 years plus with a good chance of repeat business, contract extensions etc.

Strong cash generation paying off debt for aquisitions.

Contracts with big players such as Virgin, Matalan, BAA, BMI Healthcare and Dixons.

The technology division has the potential to significantly increase earnings which have not been considered in the earnings estimates.

TripleArc is now the 4th biggest print management provder in the UK and still growing - maybe takeover potential there.

Risks:

UK economy might go down hill adversely affecting TPA margins/contracts.
Shares are fairly illiquid and volatile.
Margins get squeezed.
Debt fairly high but being rapidly repaid.
Increased competition.

Overall I feel comfortable to hold a high percentage of my portfolio in this company - my two year timeframe should hopefully see the shares double in value baring unforseen disasters.

Website : http://www.triplearcplc.com/

Shareshark

I'm in @4.25p from last week... here's hoping !

Growth Investor mag (April edition)says on page 24 that TripleArc are "very cheap indeed. Buy"

http://www.growthcompany.co.uk/company/articles/TPA/25285/aim-for-10m-and-under.thtml

Cheap TripleArc eyes recovery
Print management specialist TripleArc was something of a Growth Company Investor favourite until a profit warning last July sent the shares tumbling from highs of around 23p to below 4p, giving TripleArc a meagre valuation of 7.8 million.

However, the reason for the warning was the poor performance of the direct mail division of its 640,000 million acquisition Stream. This difficult asset has now been sold (it was offloaded for 1), and the attendant cancellation of an earn-out payment eliminated 900,000 of liabilities from the balance sheet.

The other good news is that the group made enough cash to pay down 500,000 worth of debt. With the remaining business now streamlined and looking likely to thrive, house broker Altium Securities expects 500,000 adjusted profit before tax for the year to December 2005 leading to 0.2p of earnings.

But 2006 is where the difference will be seen: 3.2 million of profits are forecast, with earnings of 1.2p producing a miniscule p/e ratio of 3.1 times. Very cheap indeed. Buy.

Some nice big trades through again today. Looks good for a confirmed break from it's recent lows.

Yep.. it's looking good.. having paid 4.25p beginning of March any upside from here is profit...makes a change for me !

Nice 500K buy reported after close on Thursday which makes things even more interesting. Brokers have a 10p price arget so we could see a continued rise as results approach.

Breakout on the charts now. Should see more of a move higher now and maybe test that 10p target.

Yep, looking even better now ... onwards and upwards !

Nice late 585K Buy to add to the others reported on a T. Looks like someone is picking up chunks.

With the bullish sentiment in the market it will be interesting to see if our buyer continues accumulating tomorrow.

Also looks like there could be a rush if we can get a confirmed chart breakout



It certainly has done it on good volume.

Looks like that chart may have broken out.

still more big trades coming thru as well.. looks as though this is being managed up to an appropriate level.. whatever that may be !

Cool ! still going up..28% so far today...

Happy days. Sky check out AAIR

Yeh.. AAIR looks good... recovering well... might get some meself soon at these levels

Not sure what the're doing to TPA though.. The're rying their best to keep this down.. not sure why they would not want to let this go to where it should be. It's all very well for them to not know why it should go up.. it should be up anyway ! right up!?

Two huge late buys showing on my screen with a combined value of 1.5 m - anybody throw any light on this??........also purchased at .o675 at time when price was showing .0700 buy.
Thanks
Augustman

This is crazy !
the company announces the release the date of when the results will be and the sp goes down already !
have the results been issued already and the're below expectations ? or does somebody already know what they are..?

Not impressed with the silly mm games ! (but then again not surprised either, we're always getting stuffed!)

big hike in the offer this am ?

Look at start of this mail --- stock formerly loved especially by small cap fund managers but messed up big time

Now unbelievable cheap -- price to sales 0.14. --- why --- debt is 18m

However comment from aGM suggests business running free cashflow of c1.8m p.a.

All this with mkt cap 6m !!

Debt probably costing c1m p.a. So ability to pay down 1m of debt in 7 months suggest cashflow before interest payments c3m pa . If the debt gets paid down by 2m a year that's c120,000 saved on interest each year

Barring further weakness -- ie big recession the past investments that drew investors to this company at 20p a share are just about to pass into the virtuous cycle . All this excludes the chances of big orders possible with the new equipment that the managment is also alluding too

Director bought shares just over 4p back in June