Is it safe to buy a house right now ?

http://www.rics.org/uk/news/news-insight/press-releases/uk-house-prices-to-increase-by-3-in-2015/

Liberum note today:
"Bellway remains a top pick in the sector as we find the valuation compelling. We believe that volume growth should be sustained, protecting profits if prices do fall a little as expected. The valuation is also compelling given the expected resilience of its return on equity.

We maintain our Buy on Berkeley in spite of the general caution around London, as the company has secured significant forward sales to protect prices and volumes, and has successfully added value to sites. By moving out of central London into more affordable parts of the city and the South East, place-making should succeed in generating value. Further, we believe the dividend is very secure, given the strength of forward orders and long landbank. With some of our earlier caution having proved unwarranted, and following strong interim results, we have upgraded our 2017E EPS estimate by 11 %.

Gleeson’s unique business model gives it industry leading margins and excellent growth prospects with limited competition. It also has the advantage of selling in housing markets that have yet to see any meaningful house price inflation. Valuation may be constrained by the sector, but growth is in its hands. Our 630p target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis.
We like Persimmon for its high dividend at low risk, and are confident that the company will achieve the payments pledged because of management's incentive scheme. Additionally, its long landbank means it could cut land spending entirely to boost cash flows, and the strategic landbank may continue to boost margins too. Northern areas have much better affordability than the south, which may mean better pricing in a weaker environment.

We downgrade Barratt to Sell as its lower margins make it more exposed to downside risk, and its relatively short landbank and high land creditors mean that it has less scope to reduce cash outflows in support of the dividend than others in the sector.

While Bovis now looks very cheap, we have continued to resist the temptation to become more positive on the shares, as its margin profile makes its earnings most geared to downside risk. The business has suffered hiccups in better markets. We are also concerned that as the slowest builder, it may be most at risk from any “sticks” the government could bring out in its Housing White Paper in January.

We keep Redrow at Hold in spite of strong trading, as we believe that risk aversion among investors may now limit appetite for investing in a housebuilder with a degree (even though comfortable) of debt. We also think the portfolio concentration in London is a potential risk. We are perhaps still too cautious in leaving Taylor Wimpey as a HOLD, especially given the high level of dividend expected. For now however, we limit our choice among the "returners" to Persimmon.