The CEO states Tullow sp is much too low and I bought in on the comments---todays results are excellent and I feel this one is being overlooked on here. check it out bargain hunters-I'd welcome some expert feedback!

correction - cheapest buy for five years, not six years and
closing auction sale went through at 748.50 p

May God bless me this week -

Getting warmer now in Benidorm now, but I have still not hit the sea waters as yet.
Where are you off to this year - Mr Cynic

biz - spain, dubai, chicago
hol - provence and around moulins cycling

Lengthy UBS note out today:
"The investment case for Tullow shares has clearly changed. Less evident for the time being is the high impact offshore explorer. In its place is a different animal, with greater leverage to development risk but with significant onshore exploration upside. The reasons for the change lie we believe in available opportunity set, a change in the competitive environment and perhaps some reduced risk tolerance after two years of high profile dry holes.
Positively, the development portfolio of Tullow is high quality and it is affordable. While Tullow strategy emphasises value realisation it isn’t forced to sell if current market conditions preclude realising full value. And although the drilling portfolio is arguably lower risk it actually still has some big offshore wildcats and more importantly offers the upside of major basin-opening derisking upside in Kenya and Ethiopia, the potential value of which is at least on a par with a big deepwater discovery (£1-2/share).
The share price performance clearly reflects some of the exploration disappointment and arguably a reduced emphasis among institutional investors on the E&P sub sector as a whole. But we think with the share price having approximately halved in 2 years, even taking a more conservative view of valuation and the likely share price relationship to that valuation still sees an investment opportunity skewed to the upside. This is a well-financed company, with a proven development track-record, a strong asset portfolio, material exploration upside, decent downside protection acquirable at an attractive price while the cycle is not currently in its favour.
We have reduced the target price to 900p from 925p set at a 15% discount to a risked NAV of 1,057p. This represents 20% share price upside from current levels.
Upside scenario
From an operational perspective there are a significant number of wells this year. Just the process of drilling the 12 month well programme targets ~1.2bn boe. We see potentially £1-2/share additional NAV from any successful new basin openers in Kenya/Ethiopia. Any large disposal at or around NAV would close the 40% upside to NAV in the shares. Historically, too, UK E&P M&A has been done at ~40% to the share price. From a macro perspective a $10/% change in our long term oil price forecast from $92/bbl to $102/bbl would see risked NAV increase by 9% (assuming normalised returns on incremental projects). Near term earnings would rise by 35%.
Downside scenario
Weak outcomes to the exploration campaign could well see the shares de-rate further in the way that some of the dry holes impacted Tullow in 2012 and 2013. The downside in the shares might be to a commercial plus contingent NAV which is ~575p. A one delay to any of the larger projects (TEN, Jubilee FF, Uganda) would each have an 8p impact to NAV. From a macro perspective a $10/% change in oil price impacts NAV by 9%. It would also see current debt capacity reached by 2017.

What price is TLW worth now ? Where is the near bottom ? Who knows ?

Did it not bounce back last time on false takeover rumours ? I think so.

Do we need some up to date Broker report on this ?

Any comments, as could now be looking interesting ?

Tullow Oil exploration and appraisal update in Kenya
28 August 2014 - Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow") announces the successful results from a series of exploration, appraisal and testing activities conducted in Blocks 10BB and 13T onshore Kenya.

Etom-1 exploration well
The Etom-1 well in Block 13T is the most northerly well drilled to date in the South Lokichar basin, 6.5 km north of the previous Agete-1 discovery. The well encountered approximately 10 metres of net oil pay, extending the proven oil basin significantly northwards. Based on this result the ongoing 550 sq km 3D seismic survey in the South Lokichar basin has been extended to cover a further 247sq km in this northern area, including several similar prospects which are scheduled to be drilled in 2015.

The Weatherford 804 rig drilled the Etom-1 well to a final depth of 2,000 metres. The well will be suspended for use in future appraisal and development operations, following which the rig will move to drill the Kodos-1 well in September 2014 to test the first of several prospects identified in the neighbouring Kerio Basin.

Amosing-2 appraisal well
The Amosing-2 well in Block 10BB is the first appraisal well on the Amosing field discovered in January 2014, and was drilled from the Amosing-1 well pad. The well was deviated 1,350 metres towards the northeast and downdip from the discovery well to calibrate the oil-water contacts of the several oil pools identified in Amosing-1. The Amosing-2 well encountered up to 30 metres net oil pay. As planned, the well was then sidetracked back to some 400 metres from the discovery well to provide additional insight into reservoir distribution in the area and for use in interference testing, planned to start later in 2014. The Amosing-2A sidetrack encountered up to 90 metres net oil pay in several oil pools.

The Sakson PR5 rig drilled Amosing-2 to a final depth of 2,878 metres and the Amosing-2A sidetrack to a final depth of 2,165 metres. The rig will now be moved to explore the southern extent of the South Lokichar basin to drill the Ekosowan-1 well in September 2014, 11.9 km south east of the Amosing-1 well.

Ngamia-3 appraisal well
The Ngamia-3 well in Block 10BB continued the appraisal of the Ngamia field. The well was successfully drilled 1.6 km north of the Ngamia-1 discovery well and encountered 150 metres of net oil pay in both Auwerwer and Lokone reservoirs. The well has been suspended for likely use in future interference testing, appraisal and development activities.

The Marriott PR46 rig drilled Ngamia-3 to a final depth of 2,700 metres. The rig will now be moved to continue the appraisal of the Ngamia field, drilling the Ngamia-4 and Ngamia-5 wells which are planned to be used in an interference testing programme in the Ngamia field.

Ewoi-1 flow test
The SMP-105 testing/workover rig recently completed testing activities at the Ewoi-1 well. The well demonstrated good permeability in the water-bearing Lokone reservoirs and a programme to target these updip is under consideration. Flow rates from the Auwerwer reservoir DST were limited to around 50 bopd, potentially due to the high wax content and shallow depth of this DST.

The lightweight rig is currently testing the Twiga South-2A appraisal well where two to three tests are planned.

Tullow Operates Blocks 10BB and 13T with 50% equity and is partnered by Africa Oil Corporation, also with 50%.

Commenting today, Angus McCoss, Exploration Director, said:
"Etom-1 has successfully extended the South Lokichar rift bounding fault play northwards and we look forward to testing the southern area of the basin with Ekosowan-1. Continued success in appraisal of the Ngamia and Amosing fields reinforces our belief that the South Lokichar basin holds very considerable potential which we hope to replicate in additional basins. The next basin-opening test will be in the neighbouring Kerio Basin, with the Kodos-1 well expected to spud in early September".

Tullow agrees gas assets sale in Netherlands Blocks L&Q
5 September 2014 - Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow" or "the Group") announces that its subsidiary Tullow Exploration & Production B.V., has entered into an agreement to sell its operated and non-operated L12/L15 block interests and non-operated Q4 and Q5 block interests to AU Energy B.V., a subsidiary of Mercuria Energy Group Limited for a consideration of €62.7 million (US$81.1 million). The transaction involves the sale of a subsidiary, Tullow Netherlands B.V., which will, at the time of completion, hold all Tullow Oil L12/L15 and Q4 and Q5 interests. The transaction has an effective date of 1 January 2014 and completion, expected during early 2015, is conditional upon ministerial consent of the intra-group transfer of the L12/L15 and Q block non-operated licence interests to Tullow Netherlands B.V.

The Tullow L12/L15 and Q block portfolio comprises a suite of seven licence interests and six developed fields producing 1,500 boepd net to Tullow. Tullow's guidance for North Sea production will be revised appropriately when this sale completes.

Aidan Heavey, Chief Executive of Tullow Oil plc, commented today,
"The sale of the Tullow's interests in Blocks L & Q is a further step towards the Group's planned divestment of our North Sea gas assets in order to focus our business on conventional light oil. The previously announced agreement to sell part of our interests in the UK Schooner and Ketch unit to Faroe Petroleum for a total consideration of
US$75.6 million is on track to complete before the end of the year, and the divestment of our remaining UK & Dutch gas assets is progressing well."

Well update - Sputnik-1 offshore Gabon
10 October 2014 - Perenco, Tullow Oil's partner in the Arouwe block offshore Gabon, today issued the following operational update.

"Perenco announces that the Sputnik-1 well, targeting a pre-salt structure in Gabon's offshore Arouwe block, has encountered non commercial hydrocarbon pay in up to 300 metres of net sandstone reservoir.

The Vantage Tungsten Explorer drill ship, drilled Sputnik-1 to a final depth of 4,868 metres in water depths of 1,023 metres.

The rig will now leave the Arouwe block and the results of this well will be incorporated into wider understanding of the region."

Tullow has a 35% interest in the Arouwe block with partners Perenco (35%, Operator) and ExxonMobil (30%).

Commenting on today's announcement, Angus McCoss, Exploration Director, said:
"This is an encouraging result from the pre-salt play, offshore Gabon. Having found a petroleum system, we will now take the data from this well and integrate it with our seismic data to discuss with partners our next steps for the licence."

Soc Gen note on friday:
"Tullow Oil’s share price has collapsed 44% in the year to date due to the triple whammy of falling oil prices, mixed drilling results and concerns over a lack of progress with its asset disposal strategy. Yet its financials remain strong as the company is in control of its capex and has the flexibility to direct its cash flows to where it can add the most value to its portfolio. Even in an $85/b world, we would still expect Tullow to be able to continue to finance high-margin production growth projects in Ghana and West Africa and at the same time add low cost resource barrels in Kenya to meet its 200mb per annum target. First gas flows from the Jubilee field are expected imminently and should allow Tullow to finally ramp up to a 120kb/d gross exit rate by year end. In addition, the historical premium placed on its exploration portfolio has dissipated, and at the current share price, this implies that investors are getting a ‘free’ option on future exploration success in Kenya ahead of a busy period of drilling (see more in our Kenya country report). We think risk/reward is skewed to the upside and upgrade to Buy (from Hold).
We have sat on the fence on this stock for some time now, due to concern over its exploration premium and exposure to the weak M&A market. However, we now think the current share price embeds an $88/b oil price, based on our core NAV estimate, lending further credibility to our view that downside asset risk has moderated. Tullow’s size and balance sheet strength should also allow it to ride out the current lower oil price environment, as shown in our $85/b cash flow scenario
How we value the stock - Our valuation methodology now moves to one that better captures rising macro uncertainties by using a 50/50 blend of the SG bear-/base-case valuation, as opposed to the previous single-point valuation at $100/b. On this our TP falls to 700p (from 865p) based on our blended risked NAV (page 4-5) using a 9.0% WACC. Our 2014 EPS estimate falls as we mark-to-market our oil prices for H2 14."

i was a great fan of TLW for a long time and got my fingers burned in due course, even though i ultimately sold out a lot further north than sp's current level

again i am tempted to dip my toes in the water, but continue to dither :-)

Kenya exploration and appraisal update

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4909360

Commenting today, Angus McCoss, Exploration Director, said:
"The Kodos-1 well is the first test of the Kerio Basin and hydrocarbon shows provide encouragement, indicating the presence of an active petroleum system. The potential of the Kerio Basin remains highly prospective and the rig is now moving to drill the next well, Epir-1, in a sub-basin to the north of Kodos-1.

South Lokichar Basin activity continued with exploration and appraisal drilling and well testing. The Ekosowan-1 well encountered a significant interval of oil shows however reservoirs at this location were tight. We look forward to stepping out from Ekosowan towards the Amosing oil field in pursuit of better reservoirs. Appraisal and well testing success continues with Ngamia-4 finding a substantial section of oil pay and Twiga-2A recording our highest flow rates to date."

12 November 2014 - Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) issues the following Interim Management Statement, for the period 1 July to 12 November 2014. The Group will announce its full year Trading Statement and Operational Update on 15 January 2015. Full year results will be announced on 11 February 2015.

COMMENTING TODAY, AIDAN HEAVEY, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER SAID:
"In light of current oil and gas sector challenges including the commodity price environment, we are reviewing our capital expenditure and our cost base to ensure that Tullow is well-positioned for future success. In 2015, we will be focusing our capital spend on producing and development assets, particularly in West Africa where, by 2017, the Group expects to be producing, net to Tullow, over 100,000 bpd of high quality, high margin oil. Our overall exploration spend will be significantly reduced and will focus primarily on East Africa where we have major basin-opening potential. Tullow remains exploration-led and will continue to add further high quality frontier acreage so that, as conditions allow, we can return to drilling the types of prospects that have given us the development portfolio we have today."

Strategic Overview
A review of the investment opportunities across Tullow's portfolio of activities is ongoing and, coupled with the current external environment, is indicating that the Group should re-allocate capital across the business towards producing assets and the commercialisation of existing discoveries.

The Group's core oil assets in West Africa - the TEN development project, Jubilee production and the non-operated West Africa portfolio - will generate significant value and cash flow for the Group and will attract the greatest share of capital in 2015. Exploration will continue to be a key part of Tullow's future growth strategy. However, given the current expectations for the oil price, reduced commercial success from offshore drilling and the lack of asset transactions, returns from drilling complex, deepwater wells are currently less attractive. In response, Tullow will now focus the majority of its exploration and appraisal expenditure on its operated onshore East Africa portfolio where significant value can be created by adding further resources and appraising existing discoveries to progress development in both Uganda and Kenya. In 2015, Tullow therefore expects to reduce net exploration and appraisal capital expenditure to around $300 million after the Norway tax rebate. During the year, Tullow will continue to seek new low cost and highly prospective exploration acreage in its core areas of Africa and the Atlantic Margins to ensure that the business continues to have an industry-leading exploration position.

In addition, the Group will continue to maintain a conservative financial framework and concentrate on a rigorous approach to both capital allocation and cost control across the Group. Tullow is focusing on maximising value from its asset base and positioning its business to benefit from improved market conditions in the future.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4921543

StockMarketWire.com

Canaccord Genuity reiterates hold on Tullow Oil, target cut from 650p to 450p.

Heading back to 200p.

Another oil stock = avoid IMHO.

Then why post on a oil company thread ?

because he's perfectly entitled to post a view even if you don't like it

worth reading ST Biz section today ......
long articles on both QPP and vulnerability of small and med sized E+P companies, witrh particular mention of both TLW and AFR

Sunday Times -

hxxp://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1495615.ece

THE plunging oil price has unleashed chaos on the London market, with some listed oil explorers trading for less than their cash reserves and others eyeing takeovers at levels that were unthinkable just a few months ago.

Since hitting nearly $115 a barrel this summer, the price of oil has plummeted 45%. Brent crude closed on Friday at $61.5.

The fall is likely to lead to a flurry of collapses and long-coveted deals amid predictions that the swoon will continue into 2016 and could see the oil price dip to $50 or even lower.

Spain’s Repsol, for example, is closing in on a bid for Talisman, which is listed in Canada and has operations in the North Sea.

The companies held talks in July but called them off because they couldn’t agree on price. After that, Talisman’s share price collapsed by two-thirds before jumping this week on hopes of a new deal. It is thought that Repsol is looking to take out the company for as little as C$6 (£3.30) a share, or C$6bn — less than half its value a year ago.

Anthony Lobo, head of oil and gas at KPMG, predicted that many of the industry’s small and medium-sized players could be gobbled up, especially in all-share deals.

The share prices of industry heavyweights such as BP and Shell have fallen far less dramatically than those of their small rivals.

Lobo said: “Their shares now hold much greater value as takeover currency. We are going to see a lot of corporate activity. The majors are geared up for it.”

The pain for some is extreme. Shares in Ophir Energy, the London-listed explorer, have plunged by two-thirds this year. On Friday the company’s market value was £700m, which is less than the $1.5bn in cash it had on its balance sheet in June.

The plunge has thrown into doubt its takeover of rival Salamander Energy because the companies’ share prices have begun to diverge widely from the intended swap ratio.

Tullow Oil is also seen as one of the most vulnerable to an opportunistic offer. Its portfolio of big fields in Africa has long been coveted by larger rivals but its share price was seen as prohibitively high. From a high of £15.66 three years ago, it closed on Friday at £3.67.

Another big faller has been Afren. Its share price has dropped 80% this year to 35p. The Nigerian producer’s stock was first laid low after it uncovered a big unauthorised payments scheme engineered by its chief executive and other directors.

Its problems have been exacerbated by concerns over its $1.2bn debt pile. It is thought that at least two suitors are circling the company at present.

Providence Resources, meanwhile, is close to signing a deal with Sequa Petroleum to fund the development of its Barryroe reservoir in the Celtic Sea.

Providence, 15% owned by beleaguered tycoon Sir Anthony O’Reilly, is running out of time. It took out $24m in loans from Melody Business Finance, a New York hedge fund, and it must repay the money in June