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Last updated: July 5 2010 18:38
BP is running out of options. With at least a month to go before the relief well to stop the leak in the Gulf of Mexico is completed, and with the cost of the clean-up above $3bn, boosting its balance sheet is more important than ever. If the relief well fails, BP is doomed. But the likelihood of a failure should be remote: relief wells usually work.
That does not lessen BPs strategic dilemma, however. How urgent is its need for cash and how should it be raised? BP has earmarked $10bn of disposals, but these take time. Credit markets put up a keep out sign on June 23, when Fitch Ratings cut BPs credit rating from double A to triple B. One reason for this downgrade was that the balance of costs that BP faces is skewed to the near term. In any case, BPs debt is trading in even more speculative territory, so debt funding is not realistic. The only other option is to raise equity.
BPs market value has collapsed since the Deepwater Horizon accident on April 20. That alone must have strategic investors eyeing its assets. Seeking an investor such as a sovereign wealth fund, along the lines of what Barclays did early in the global financial crisis, is one solution and one that BP can control. Oil-hungry China must be one source perhaps including a long-term supply agreement.
An alternative is to woo a Middle Eastern investor. In spite of their overexposure to oil, they may be persuaded to take advantage of a one-off opportunity. No wonder Libyas senior oil official has hinted at such a move. Since desperate times call for desperate measures, Tony Hayward, BPs chief executive, and Carl-Henric Svanberg, its chairman, need to start thinking the previously unthinkable.
BP is not planning to issue new shares, the company said on Monday, in spite of the pressure on its finances caused by its huge oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
The group has been making overtures to investors in countries where it has good relationships, including the United Arab Emirates, in an attempt to encourage them to buy shares, but the company said that it was not trying to bring in strategic investors with new equity.
Libyas top oil official on Monday said that his countrys sovereign wealth fund should invest in BP to take advantage of the troubled companys falling share price. Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libyas national oil company, made the comments as BP made contact with Middle Eastern investors.
BP is interesting now with the price lower by half and I still have trust in BP, I will recommend it to the LIA [the Libyan Investment Authority], Mr Ghanem told Dow Jones.
Shares in BP, which have lost almost half their value since its catastrophic explosion and oil spill in late April, closed 3.5 per cent higher at 333.3p in London. The group said on Monday the cost to date of the response to the spill had risen above $3bn.
Mr Ghanems comments came after an official in the Gulf told the Financial Times that BP had already been reaching out to investment entities in the region, particularly those with which it already had relations.
The official said the company was looking for access to capital to make it less vulnerable to competitors and takeover bids.
The message, the official said, was: Our stock is cheap, why not buy some? A senior international banker in the Gulf said there had been signs of interest in BP from investors in the region, but added there is a big difference between interest and writing a cheque.
They might be willing to invest if BP is desperate, but there is a long way to go yet. BP has not mandated advisers to market fundraising yet, the banker added.
The Gulf is home to some of the worlds biggest sovereign wealth funds, which have previously stepped in to inject capital into western banks, including Citigroup and Barclays.
BP has a particularly long history with the UAE, which is home to several government-controlled funds that invest in energy related assets.
These include the International Petroleum Investment Co, which was used as the vehicle for Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, a member of Abu Dhabis ruling family, to invest $3.5bn in Barclays, and Mubadala, a state investment company. Abu Dhabi, the UAEs capital, is also home to one of the worlds largest sovereign wealth funds, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which invested $7.5bn in Citigroup in November 2007.
BP is also active in Libya. It won an exploration contract there in 2007. The LIA is seeking to build up its portfolio.
The Qatar Investment Authority has also been one of the more active state investment vehicles in recent months.