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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

optomistic - 08 Feb 2006 10:57 - 621 of 1009

No, will settle for 120's Fred :-)

Fred1new - 08 Feb 2006 10:59 - 622 of 1009

The total volume about 45,000. normal volume about 450,000 shares. I don't think many are bailing out.

But it is red day all over my screen.

optomistic - 08 Feb 2006 11:19 - 623 of 1009

You're right there Fred not much blue showing. As to a lot bailing out, I think it's more a case of a steady sell into the market over time. Don't understand why any large holder would want to drip his stock into the market as prospects seem good, but it does seem to be happening.
However Fundys post above does put some things into perspective.

Fred1new - 08 Feb 2006 16:06 - 624 of 1009

What was I saying about support at 138p. Gone back to bed.

Douggie - 09 Feb 2006 10:17 - 625 of 1009

...Still :-[ ..............!

boxerdog - 09 Feb 2006 14:01 - 626 of 1009

As a very long term holder (on and off) i feel qualified to state that RTD. as a share is frustrating and amazingly unpredictable.They are currently trading at a 25% discount to the SP.of this time a year ago.During this time they have acheived additional sources of revenue by the way of bolt on additions and, issued a statement forecasting as the previous year profits in excess of expectations.Could it possiblbly be that this year profits are even in excess of excess of expectations and that when the MM. cease shaking that tree, come the day of declaration they might take off.Only my theory of course.

boxerdog - 09 Feb 2006 14:02 - 627 of 1009

As a very long term holder (on and off) i feel qualified to state that RTD. as a share is frustrating and amazingly unpredictable.They are currently trading at a 25% discount to the SP.of this time a year ago.During this time they have acheived additional sources of revenue by the way of bolt on additions and, issued a statement forecasting as the previous year profits in excess of expectations.Could it possiblbly be that this year profits are even in excess of excess of expectations and that when the MM. cease shaking that tree, come the day of declaration they might take off.Only my theory of course.

boxerdog - 09 Feb 2006 14:02 - 628 of 1009

As a very long term holder (on and off) i feel qualified to state that RTD. as a share is frustrating and amazingly unpredictable.They are currently trading at a 25% discount to the SP.of this time a year ago.During this time they have acheived additional sources of revenue by the way of bolt on additions and, issued a statement forecasting as the previous year profits in excess of expectations.Could it possiblbly be that this year profits are even in excess of excess of expectations and that when the MM. cease shaking that tree, come the day of declaration they might take off.Only my theory of course.

Fundamentalist - 09 Feb 2006 15:09 - 629 of 1009

Boxer

Agree fully with the frustrating nature

the danger with that theory is that is what we have all expected from the last 2 years results and hence despite encouraging results they were not as good as many were hoping for.

In addition, whilst adding additional revenue sources they are of a lower margin style than the fraud business and hence are likely to reduce the fair PE ratio the company trades to.

Ultimately until the results are released and are in black and white we are all guessing to a degree, a great deal of this caused by the fact that all the contracts RTD announce never have any value assigned to them so it is difficult to quantify the added value they provide

canary9 - 09 Feb 2006 15:33 - 630 of 1009

This will be a different business going forward as there will be a dramatic change in the revenue line next year. It will have gone from a price to sales of 3 or 4 for 2004 to less than 1 for 2006, which is low for a growth business. Although, the fuel card business may be lower margin , the higher fuel prices will help and, if they are managing to grow the business it will certainly underpin the current share price IMHO. If on top they are making good progress in the CNP market, I can see a re-rating of the shares after the results.
I am therefore a buyer at 1.20 , and would not consider selling before the results at less than 2.00. DYOR

Fred1new - 09 Feb 2006 16:13 - 631 of 1009

I think one of the problems with this share is that some in the market can remember the SP of 1912p 13/3/2000. and since that date its rollercoaster ride.

Many jump when there has been any improvement. Personally the market always hyped the share, although the board have given fair appraisals.

I have been lucky buying and selling this time, but have quite a large holding (for me) now, which I intend to hold until the results and probably well after.

Douggie - 10 Feb 2006 16:47 - 632 of 1009

And another RED week ... !!!!!!!!!! :-{{

EVOLUTION - 12 Feb 2006 21:25 - 633 of 1009

should get a boost tomorrow, given as a buy in scsw again, main write up

pachandl - 13 Feb 2006 09:29 - 634 of 1009

Looking good this morning - perhaps a new trend will be established this week?

Ray A - 13 Feb 2006 17:04 - 635 of 1009

Better day, 3rd March for prelims getting closer!

boxerdog - 14 Feb 2006 13:26 - 636 of 1009

Excellent couple of days,more to come i hope!.Is there any significance in the RNS. released early PM.today,regarding GS.

optomistic - 14 Feb 2006 14:04 - 637 of 1009

Small reduction in holding.

Douggie - 14 Feb 2006 15:20 - 638 of 1009

........

Fred1new - 14 Feb 2006 15:30 - 639 of 1009

Opt, not very optimistic. More to come.

optomistic - 14 Feb 2006 15:41 - 640 of 1009

Must say I'm surprised at this sudden turn around.
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