driver
- 02 Mar 2006 15:23
hewittalan6
- 19 Apr 2007 11:47
- 661 of 934
Buy land. God isn't making any more.
cynic
- 19 Apr 2007 11:49
- 662 of 934
that much is true, but Number One Son is in the biz and i listen to what he has to say, as well as making the more obvious observations as above.
hewittalan6
- 19 Apr 2007 12:12
- 663 of 934
Me too, cynic, old bean.
Like the price of Pork Bellies, the short term could provide anything, but who would invest in the most illiquid of any assets for the short term???
Longer term;
The population rises, both home grown and through immigration. Therefore demand rises. Home ownership is the number one aspirational purchase in the UK. Availability of social housing decreases constantly. New stock on the market includes a new-build premium of at least 10%, forcing prices up. Supply is more difficult than usual as planning issues restrict development.
The doom merchants, and even those forecasting a soft landing base the forecast on short term economics, especially BofE and swap rates. Those who are actually supplying the money for the long term are offering lower rates for longer fixes. They think that this year will see the high water mark for rates, followed by a lowering to last years levels in the couple of years after.
Finally, we are seeing the first generation of 30 and 40 somethings benefitting from deceased parents leaving huge amounts of property value to smaller families than ever before. They are spending it on either their own dream property, or in helping their children to buy property. These all force prices up.
Medium and long term buy.
Alan
cynic
- 19 Apr 2007 12:27
- 664 of 934
Alan .... history says you are right, though history is also known to be bunkum! ..... actually i agree with you and, even if prop prices do stagnate or even fall, it will not actually affect me to any great degree.
partridge
- 19 Apr 2007 13:02
- 665 of 934
Alan- it is the lending of long term money at fixed rates which causes me some unease. Not sure how these lenders match their books, but if borrowing short and lending long it will sooner or later end in disaster.The vast (and rapidly growing) amounts showing in bank balance sheets under derivative contracts and the like suggest to me that one day this particular merry go round will come to a shuddering halt. There may well still be a surplus of demand for property over supply, but if the lending taps have to be turned off to protect the lenders balance sheets then short term could get very nasty.
hewittalan6
- 19 Apr 2007 13:19
- 666 of 934
Lending is global nowadays. LIBOR & BofE are benchmarks, not the cost of the money to the lenders. The money costs to them are the mean average of all deposits and borrowings and earnings, and while this may include high rate loans from other banks and huge costly deposits from arab sheiks, it also includes the Billions in orphaned accounts and the huge bank charges for overdrafts and bounced cheques.
Further, the high street is under constant market pressure to compete by the non traditional lenders, who simply lend out 10million at 6% then flog the loans as a bond. The lender makes his money not from interest, but from charges and penalties, so it is in their interest to keep new business coming in.
The globalization means that the bonds will always prove attractive somewhere in the world, and that any borrowing the lenders must do to balance the books, is available cheaper somewhere. They simply hedge the currency risks through bonds and equities.
Complicated, but it works and shows no sign of coming derailed.
Alan
partridge
- 19 Apr 2007 15:18
- 668 of 934
Thanks Alan for your input, beginning to make more sense to me.
hewittalan6
- 19 Apr 2007 16:04
- 669 of 934
And funnily enough, the news is headlined "the end of fixed rate mortgages".
The story is actually that some lenders have withdrawn some of their fixed rate products pending the BofE decision.
The truth, for anyone who knows, is that most lenders put their fixed products on withdrawal watch if they expect a rate change, up or down, and then relaunch the same products after the decision, at adjusted rates.
Not really the same thing as an end to fixed rates, is it??
Still the media love a good panic.
parrisf
- 21 Apr 2007 19:39
- 670 of 934
Don't bank on the young inhereting any money. If parents go into Old Peoples Homes they and the government are getting it all. 600+ a week. The way round it, if the parents are into it, is to pass it on more than 7 months before they go in a home. I'm not holding my breath on this one, nor on SEO even though I have a few shares.
driver
- 24 Apr 2007 11:43
- 671 of 934
Very good news for RETV could be the next QXL very small M/Cap for a company with a JV with a Home Shopping Channel with out risk.
24/04/2007 Launch of 'Showcase TV' a New 24 Hour UK Home Shopping Channel
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=11010#lastread
moneyplus
- 25 Apr 2007 16:22
- 672 of 934
just bought a few YOU yougov as the results look impressive and also some EBP which also looks promising--anyone noticed these? I like TOL figures too but no money left unless the sola boat comes in!!
moneyman
- 30 Apr 2007 13:43
- 674 of 934
Chart breakout at RGM
moneyplus
- 16 May 2007 12:03
- 675 of 934
Anyone into BTR Blue Star mobile? strong director buying and results due soon tempted me to buy some---it looks a tasty growth share to me.
moneyplus
- 16 May 2007 17:29
- 677 of 934
thanks soul--not a good day for me today red all round except YOU---that is another for you to check out,
moneyplus
- 25 May 2007 15:22
- 679 of 934
I'm in YOU -yougov and I read they have launched an Indian Media fund investing in broadcasting and media very recently on Aim. can anyone give me some info about it and the epic please?
RAS
- 25 May 2007 17:07
- 680 of 934
URA - uranium stock, 7p. Going to list on ASX next month at a minimum of 8.5p.
JV partner Western Metals (ASX:WMT) does most of the work, and has a very busy work programme for the summer, the aim being to have a JORC resource by the end of the year. Excellent grades found so far and the land area is HUGE.
DYOR.