NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.

They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.

does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??

takahe,

he didn't speculate a reason, you just did!

The RNS issued by NML suggest the Badenhorsts have sold 1 million shares, these are official communications issued by the company, do you doubt their accuracy?

No, my point about the Badenhorsts is that they are smart cookies and accepted the shares in lieu of cash, because the company didn't have the working capital to pay them.

They've managed to acquire an extra $195,300 in the process and by selling or transfering only 1 million shares (I don't know what price they achieved), they have managed to convert some of the shares back into cash.

I don't know them personally, but I do have contacts in the industry, so it wouldn't be difficult to find out more. From what I heard, it was the Badenhorsts that found the Lapi River project and offered it to Monroe. When they couldn't get the funds together (?), they took it to NML. NML managed to get the licenses and do the deals with the Angolan Goverment.

If anyone should benefit from the Lapi River project, it is Piet and Neils. Obviously very smart guys.

Legend,

re FDI, I'm a long term holder, and I genuinely feel that 3 is indeed possible, if not more, in the longer term.

It's certainly reassuring to hear your broker friends are so enthuisiastic, I in fact know quite a few holders, and everyone is quietly confident of their Groen River and Botswanan prospects producing a few mines.

Re NML market cap of 5 million, well IMHO it's a speculation with risk money that you are prepared to lose, nothing more, UNTIL the company prove they can deliver.

If they achieve that, then clearly a reassesment will be in order, but not until IMO.

legend290782 - 08 Jun'05 - 17:45 - 676 of 701
Seems like some interesting afternoons posts!!
How come Healy had death threats does anyone know??

The idiot that made the death threats did so because he bought NML at a high price when they were only about Niobium and Tantalum. When the price dropped, he panicked and sold out at a massive(?) loss (or so he said). Then NML got the diamond concession and he feels cheated.

He accussed the directors of being con artists (when there is no evidence of this) and made direct threats to Shane Healey, his children, John Cross and another investor.

I called in the police when we knew that the directors would be visiting London to give a presentation. We tried to get the person traced months before, but due to problems with tracing his identity, the Police could not locate him in time. So I requested a couple of plain clothes police to attend the presentation, just in case the nutter turned up with his knife.

The police contacted Seymour Pierce (the broker) who were holding the meeting. The next day there was the AFX news release. I was shocked when I saw it and contacted the company PR man. He was in a bar with his ex work mates - from a News Agency. So you can guess who released the news as cheap publicity.

I contacted a friendly reporter to attend the meeting. The directors mislead the reporter over the real reason for the death threats. They said that it was because the shareholders thought the company was holding back price sensitive news, when it was actually because a nutter lost some money on his investment.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2004/11/05/cnmill05.xml

The BBC picked up the story from the Telegraph and reported it. But when they checked with the police (after I had a quick word with them) they changed the story:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3986463.stm


Also didn't nml do their homework as to the accessibility to the mines and potential costs??

Many of us believe that the company did not check out the weather conditions well enough and were taken by surprise when it actually did rain. They were unprepared for the extent of the rain and how long it lasted.

It appears that they did not factor the rain into their forecasts, so the Project Summary they completed is probably way out. IMO, I doubt that they will be able to mine the 10,000 carats per month that they are expecting to do all year. They might do better in some dry months, but I reckon that most of the time they will be falling behind forecast.

Does it not alarm you that the so called experts - 'the brandenhorst bros' are selling shares??

Not in the slightest - the Badenhorsts didn't expect to have that much in the way of shares, but then they can convert as much as they want, when they want and nobody would know. Because they are not directors and have non-declarable holdings. Their overall holding is largish. It is presently 6.9% of the issued capital. They could put quite a dent in the price without raising suspicion.

However, they are smart guys, and I doubt that they would dispose of all of their shares. They are obviously looking at the bigger picture - the Pipes!


What do you vale nml at?? Do you think that 5m is fair or 'cheap'???

We did a summary on the ADVFN boards using the published data. Here it is:



You can see the value of the company and the projected share price. On the face of it, NML has a great deal of value, but the problem is the market. The market will not price according to this summary, but according to the supply and demand for shares. If the big seller keeps dumping shares, then it would be difficult to see how the share price could rise, unless the company declares spectacular news.

Andy
No..he quite clearly stated that the Badenhorsts must have sold a million shares.Quote: "by selling only 1 million shares (I don't know what price they achieved), they have managed to convert some of the shares back into cash."
That is very surprising, if true.

Anomalous1
"So you can guess who released the news as cheap publicity" AFX releases do not work in that way

>Takahe
I have ammended the post to read:

"They've managed to acquire an extra $195,300 in the process and by selling or transfering only 1 million shares (I don't know what price they achieved), they have managed to convert some of the shares back into cash.
"

They could have transferred them. That's certainly possible, but IMO it's more likely that they sold a million.

Regards the AFX, The NML PR guy was in a bar with a NEWS AGENCY, so you can guess who gave them the story.

Having consulted someone who knows more than I do about mining, that is a pump in picture 4. All open mines use them to remove rain water but more importantly, we have to remember that in 'the cut and cover' style of mining that NML propose to use - that particular hole in the ground will be filled up with processed gravel in a matter of days, while the next bench is being stripped and mined.

Cheers takahe.

Anomalous1, you say "Just recently I heard some pretty shocking news about the company. I can't repeat it because it was told in confidence, but it was bad enough that I've had to share it with both sets of regulators. It may turn out to be innocent, but then the context of the news was such that it made me extremely worried about NML."

Are you prepared to give a brief outline of this, perhaps in an email?

Do you hold NML shares?

Just recently I heard some pretty shockingly good news about the company. I can repeat it because it wasn't told in confidence, and it was good enough that I've had to share it with both sets of bullitin boards. It may turn out to be already known, but then the context of the news was such that it made me extremely excited about NML.

Here it is:

notready - 9 Jun'05 - 10:28 - 1537 of 1537


I have some fantastic news about NML!!!!!

1. They have started alluvial mining operations.
2. The known resource is huge. Unmapped resource is probably massive.
3. The company have brought forward their kimberlite mapping because of demand from several potential partners.
4. The directors have share options that start at 8p and have share price targets from 16p to 55p by April 2007, only 20 months away.
5. The potential profits and cash flow are very large from alluvials alone.
6. The potential profits from kimberlites could be huge.
7. They also have a free interest in a promising diamond prospect in Greenland.
8. The market cap is a ridiculous 6m.

Please tell everyone, including the regulators, because I don't think the market has cottoned on yet!!!!

PS. On the negative side there is some confusion in reconciling old and new directors holding notices and there was a bit of a delay to minestart due to bad weather. Big deal!

mjr
What an interesting post. There is also the possibility of a take-over from a major, once their resources are proven.

Mjr...don't worry about Anomalous1 he is a well known deramper on NML advfn thread. It can't be long now before we have some good news to push NML upwards.
Di

Cheers Dynamite, takahe.

Fingers crossed!

nice one mjr (in confidence to both you and Dynamite, of course!) - lol.

Tell me, Oh Anomalous One, when dey find de diamonds do dey pull dem up DE RAMP or use de bucket and de rope?

sd

What a laugh I've had today, reading through all your posts. You obviously have a problem with the truth. I suspect that the reason why the majority of posters have not filtered me, is because they know (secretly) that the realism I have been posting is the truth.

You were all very quick to rubbish the 4p price when I predicted it, but it isn't so funny now. You were all quick to rubbish the predictions that the company would have to carry out dilutions. You kept of claiming that they had more than enough, what with the placing and the convertible drawdown - but they've had to dilute since then... and more than once. I even predicted that they would not be able to start in February as they promised and they didn't..

and yet the posters on this board still blindly support their company, refusing to accept that anything is wrong, when the mystery seller keeps dumping quantities of shares and the directors can't even get their declarations correct.

How many other companies do you know that are under investigation for breaches of the directors declaration regulations?...

Why are you ignoring the alarm bells that are ringing in your head? The market hears them. The mystery seller hears them. That's why the share price has been artificially depressed. And yet you still have 'faith' in the management. A management that was called 'incompetent' by one of your own 'experts'.

I'm glad that there are people like you out there. You see the Market Makers need fools like you to keep the market going. Otherwise they wouldn't be able to give the stuff away! The majority of posters on this board are examples that prove PT Barnum was right!

And a good thing too. The sharks out there need someone gullible enough to sell their dodgey secondhand cars to. If Darwin was here, he would say that you've put yourselves up for natural De-selection!

That's the trouble with these posters, they don't understand that in order not to be taken advantage of, you need to keep an open mind and look at all the alternative theories, not lock yourself into one mindset.

The vast majority of posters on this board are upset because they are get rich quick merchants. There are a few exceptions like notready, Ianwc and Wdurham, but the rest were definitely expecting to be rich (on paper) last October. You only have to read back through the other threads to see all your talk of:

"The news is on the way".... "only a short time now and the SP will rocket"... "They are pulling diamonds up by the handfull"... You only have to dig down one metre and there are loads of them"...

The company kept on promising results but has so far failed to deliver. You all moan about the share price being low or the market cap being a third or a quarter of what it should be, but fail to realise that the company has so far delivered nothing of value.

In fact, the only thing the company has done is take more money and de-value your shares, most likely because they couldn't own up to the fact that they couldn't get their figures right.

Those of you that went to the meeting came back and wrote what John Cross and Shane Healey told you. Don't you recall that they said there was no further need for dilutions? Don't you recall that they said they would start the mine in February? Don't you recall that they told you they would have 5,000 carats in 2 weeks? Don't you recall that they said they would come back to the UK and report to the shareholders?

The simple fact is, that the market has noticed these broken promises, even if you refuse to.... and that is why the price of the share has not risen. Because the seller keeps selling and the MMs will not move the price except with solid proof. Even if they do move the price, they are well aware that the seller will re-appear and dump another load.

The company would have to report some pretty spectacular news in order to move the price and so far, they've kept remarkedly silent. Despite all the emails to the directors, they are keeping quiet. Why?, well probably because they know that they should not have been communicating with the shareholders so freely last year. IMO someone from Canary Wharf had a word with the directors and reminded them that illicit emails would not only be against the rules of the exchange, but against the law.

Haven't you wondered why there's been no broker's notes about NML yet? Aren't you in the least bit curious as to why the institutionals have not taken an interest?

You all claim that NML is below their radar. That it is tremendous value, but not been noticed. What utter crap. Of course NML has been noticed. How many other firms had AFX's that talked about death threats (apart from the Glazers!)?

The institutionals are not interested, because they know how much risk there is. They know that someone's been selling vast amounts of shares for over a year now, and it says that these people have no confidence in the company.

If NML was such a good buy with such good prospects and potential, then the share price should have gone through the roof. The reason it hasn't is because the management has failed to deliver and the mystery seller keeps dumping. So no wonder the institutionals are avoiding it. They want to see proof that there are diamonds there before they invest any wedge.

So the posters on this board claim... what about the proven resource?

Sure there is a proven resource, all 188,100 recoverable carats of it. But haven't you twigged to something yet? 188,100 carats will take them a year and a half, just 18 months to mine at 10,000 carats a month. So the proven recoverable resource is worth $6.75 million for NML's share (according to WDurham's figures). The company is only worth $13.5 million at the moment.

Most of you would then say, But what about the other areas, the other deposits that they've found. Well if you bother to check the Project Summary, you'll see that the company puts a probability figure against each of the resources:



So you can see for yourself, that the company thinks there is only (at best) a 40% probability of finding the diamonds in the 5 Rio Lapi targets and a 20% chance for the Rio Chicapa targets. Institutionals need a better chance than that for them to be able to invest. That's one of the reasons they have avoided NML, apart from the selling. They've been smart enough to realise that NML needs to breakout above 7p before they can see any potential for the company.

Then you might say "What about the kimberlite pipes?"...

There are 3 kimberlites on the concession, but they don't belong to NML yet. Given that Catoca has been mining for some time (and successfully) I would have thought that they stood more chance of taking these pipes. Or maybe even the majors that inspected the pipes sometime ago, like DB or BHP. Endiama is going to award the license to the people they trust to bring in the goodies. Catoca has proven capable of this. They have the funds and they have the desire to expand their operation. They are obviously well situated. 20 to 25 kilometres is nothing in distance. They could easily ship the ore down the road to the Catoca plant and wouldn't need to build one on site. It seems to me (and probably the institutionals too) that Catoca stands the best chance of getting the license. They could provide Endiama with 'jam today', rather than 'jam tomorrow'. It would take NML more than 3 years to get the pipe operation underway

NML has aplied for the license. They've managed to dilute to get some funding, purportedly to do some research on the kimberlites, but it will take a great deal more money than 500,000 to complete the bulk sample and the BFS. Look at DB, they've invested $millions into AK6 to rush that to production and AK6 is not expected to be on-line for 4 to 5 years at best. Catoca could have the bulk sample and BFS completed in a year, or two at most. They don't need to build a plant, they already have one.

So it's understandable that the Institutionals don't want to take a risk on NML. The value of the proven resource is not worth their while and there is still a huge risk that NML will not get the kimberlites or find any diamonds of economic quantities in the other targets.

If the company states that the probability of success is 40%, then the cup is less than half-full, not a cup half-empty. So it's understandable why the price of NML keeps deteriorating. Despite the claims by the management that they are operating and extracting, the market wants to see proof. And even then, the price of NML is not likely to sky rocket on the news. Bceause there is so much uncertainty that they will be able to keep operating after 18 months.

I'm not disputing that there are diamonds in the proven area. Dr Smith's report states that there is and his credentials are not in doubt.

What is in doubt is the ability of a management that has been described as incompetent to do the job they said they would do. They've let the shareholder down so many times in the past, that their credibility with the market is very low. You may choose to believe them, but the market doesn't. Hence the current price.

If you want to blind yourself to the risks of this project, then that is your choice. However, don't go bitching when the truth comes back to hurt you. Don't complain that the share price hasn't risen as it should have. Don't then try to get 'revenge' by trying to trash other BBs when your own company has let you down.

If you can't face the truth, then you are deluding yourself. You can dream about all the riches you will earn in your imaginery world, but it's unlikely that the Share Price of NML will deliver these.

If you would keep an open mind, you would realise that the market has a different view of NML and it is the market that decides the price of the share.

Anomalous1 - 09 Jun'05 - 12:43 - 714 of 714 (Filtered)

Congratulations you are the first and only poster in my filter list.

LOL!

Sd :-)
Anomalous...you mustbe a paid deramper or else you would not bother spouting long winded rubbish. You cannot even get a CFD to short NML so what is teh point of your posts?? Being paid to do it is the only one I can think of. And no I haven't bothered to read what you have written as I don't bother on advfn either. You might as well go back to their boards,... they are more interested in arguing with you.
We are not

Unfortunately guys, I think he points out some good things.

As i have said, i once held this falling into the trap of empty promises. If NML do pluck out all these diamonds and are as cash generative as they say they will be then I will be the first person on here to congratulate those who have stuck through this.

I hope it goes well for you.

Anomolous obviously knows people close to the company - and doesn't hold any shares!! I don't think he is short selling them - because of the spread it would be hard to make any money on them plus the mkt cap is very low, so he has no reason to deramp the shares for personal gain. Perhaps people should at least take on board some of his thoughts.

BY THE WAY.. THANKS EVERYONE FOR REPLYING TO MY QUESTIONS. MUCH APPRECIATED.

Its clear Anomalous has held NML shares in the past, like yourself, and has sold, probably at a heavy loss, because he wasn't patient enough.

He may now regret selling out and wishes he had held on that bit longer.

He may feel a lot of bitterness towards NML Directors because things didn't turn out exactly how he believed they would at exactly the time he believed they would.

He certainly will regret not holding it in a few months time IMO.

mjr1234 -

That's largely because how he believed "things would turn out" was based on misunderstandings, misconceptions and a tendency to twist what he heard/read to suit his desired outcome. You ought to see if you can find his "NML will be producing 20k carats a month from day one because they are going to use a barge to mine both sides of the river at once!" theory. Laugh a minute, that one, but he would not be talked out of it, and continued to present it as "fact". His chagrin when - surprise, surprise - they were found to be doing no such thing was huge - even though the whole theory was preposterous.