UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE..

COMPANY WEB SITE.........

http://www.vaneminerals.com/

THE PRICE OF URANIUM IS GOING BALISTIC...

The uranium spot price hasn't seen a down month since 2001. For years now, uranium producers have met just 60% of total annual demand - the other 40% coming from government stockpiles and decommissioned nuclear warheads. This can go on for only so long.

The tightness of supply comes at a time of atomic resurgence. Three large-scale factors have turned the tide in favour of nuclear energy:
geopolitics, global warming and developing world growth.

Analysts are debating over wether the SP of Uranium increase will be three fold within 2007?.

Looks like to me, the best play on the UK market for Uranium and it hasnt gotten away yet like the other two ZBA Zareba and URA Uranium which have multi bagged. Its also in a position to fund its development with a new gold mine producing. Ive added twice this morning and think this one could be very big. Heres the announcement...........

Vane Minerals PLC
07 March 2005


VANE Minerals plc (AIM: VML)

VANE Announces Diversification Into Uranium Exploration And Development

Vane Minerals ('VANE' or 'the Company') announces that it is diversifying its
current project portfolio by entering into the uranium exploration and
development business.

To date 7 uranium targets have been successfully claimed by the Company and 28
further properties have been identified and are under development. VANE expects
to finalise its property position by the end of the first quarter 2005. The
Company is targeting uranium projects that are either at, or near, resource
stage or targets that exhibit similar surface features to mines with past
production, but that have not yet been evaluated for the presence of uranium.

The 35 properties identified are located within a uranium district with
significant past production as well as significant resources. Due to the
current uranium market conditions, we prefer to not identify the location until
we complete our property position. Previous drilling data available for some of
the 7 properties successfully claimed indicate grade intersects from 0.34 up to
1.78% U3O8.

VANE has incorporated a 100% owned subsidiary to hold its uranium properties and
has also successfully recruited a uranium geologist, Kristopher K. Hefton B.Sc.,
who has considerable experience in this field and is a great addition to the
VANE team. Mr. Hefton has worked with VANE's exploration team in the past during
his time at Freeport McMoran, and he has also worked for Barrick Gold
Corporation, Homestake Mining Company and Energy Fuels Nuclear Inc.

Michael Spriggs, Chairman of VANE, commented, 'We are delighted to announce the
addition of these uranium assets to the VANE portfolio and will update the
market with more substantial details once further properties have been claimed.
The uranium market has been strong for some time now, reflecting a long-term
forecast supply shortage and the growing recognition that nuclear energy offers
a cleaner and more energy efficient fuel source. Through our extensive network,
we have identified some quality projects and look forward to releasing further
details when appropriate.'

Enquiries:

VANE Minerals plc Seymour Pierce Limited Parkgreen Communications
Matthew Idiens Sarah Wharry Justine Howarth / Cathy Malins
020 7667 6322 020 7107 8000 020 7493 3713

cheers GF.

Explains everything then. I am a little dissapointed in this share of late very good prospects excellent news all dates are kept yet a few sells brings the price down and lots buys has little or no effect.

Still holding though and will probably add more because I really like the look of this companys future.

Any dip in the SP is surly a time to topup.
Everything about vane is rosy. Patience is all thats needed.
wilbs

I sold most of my other company holdings a few days ago in light of the ongoing and out of proportion reaction on the UK small cap arena to negative US sentiment/easing of metals prices recently, but Vane is one of the few I held onto. Grateful for any view from those who have seen this illogical kind of market behaviour (e.g. where good news drives sp down instead of at least holding it steady) before as to when it might turn around. tallsiii, agree with last post, but shouldn't Vane have dropped less, not more than most others today? PS, tks for your feedback on the AGM - excellent.

So far we've had approximately 8,200 of sells. I would call that insignificant.

Cheers, Madison

Ok for all those of you that are getting worried out there, here are some conservative sums:

Let's assume the conservative estimates of 13m lbs of uranium in the ground (there may be more, but we'll stick with that for now).

Also, assume a very conservative cost per lb extracted at $20 per lb. At the current price of $29 per lb, the value of what is in the ground is $9x13m = $117m.

Now lets say that because of the effects of discounting future cash flows and stuff, they are only able to sell the mines at half that estimated value. $68.5m = 37m.

The current market cap of Vane at the selling price is 25m, so if they sold the mines northern Arizona they'd have more than enough money to give all our money back and then we'd have Diabilito, Gaudalzar and Mina Chiray for free!!

And that is before you even factor in the escalating Uranium price, the possibility of finding more reserves and the fact that the cost of extraction is likely to be far less than $20 per lb!

I find these kinds of valuation models are very helpful at times when the market is being irrational.

Tallsiii

Thanks T it's depressing to look at the sp. today.

Uranium oxide, or "yellow cake" is selling for as much as $29 a pound -- the highest price since 1980 -- thanks to growing demand for nuclear power generation in the face of rising oil prices, according to commodities analysts.

Globally around 46,000 tonnes of uranium is mined each year but the world's power stations need an estimated 79,000 tonnes, meaning more of the material must be drawn from industry buffer stocks.

"Simply put, the planet's power demands are outstripping its resources and many see nuclear power, derived from the precious yellow cake, as the panacea to the problem," said Bill Repard, publisher of the industry trade journal Paydirt.

wilbs

Talsiii, can't fault your last post, and it's why I'm definitely sticking with Vane. I just wish I could gauge how long the irrationality in the markets is going to continue, which in 8 weeks has more than wiped out my gains over the last year on stocks picked on good fundamentals for mid-long term holding.

Unfortunately, market irrationality can last for years, sometimes even decades. But it is difficult to argue with good old cash, which is what Vane should soon be turning their glowing prospects into. And even if cash were to go out of fashion, the most reliable asset would then be gold. Something that Vane has quite a lot of.

Hope your right Tallsii, this getting to be joke. Good company, good prospects, good ideas, good management and its making money. Yet price just goes down.

I mean what does it take to get this share to go up? its already mining/Acquiring the "Fashionable" stuff like gold and uranium yet nothing seems to get this to rise.

Maybe I am just having a bad day coupled with it being Friday 13th. I hate it when it goes down like this on a fri because I cant take my mind off it for the weekend, wondering what direction its going to take on monday.

Tallsiii, difficult call this sentiment thing, but anyway for the purpose of this thread suffice it to say I'm sticking with Vane. I'll come back to the rest when sensibility returns, maybe in a month or two or maybe in a decade or so!

Does anyone know if there's a thread dealing with the general topic of current sentiment anywhere on ADVFN?

syd - how long are you investing for? You can't keep on having weekends like that, it's bad for your health! It's possible the market, the shorters, the day traders or whatever will drag us into oblivion. But if you're going to invest in small companies at all then you might as well choose one as well positioned in the current climate as Vane.

tallsiii - thanks for your calculations. I am hoping to sit down and think about this over the weekend, but two five year old girls want their tea soon - which will soon put the current Vane volatility into perspective!

Cheers, Madison

1 - 2 years not sure if thats med to long term.

Yeah I know got to stop thinking about it and leave it to sort itself out, but its hard earned cash dissappering in front of my eyes.

Dont understand how this market works, seems to go agaisnt everything logical.

Am still learning so at least I have my money in a good company.

Just looked at the trades, some interesting ones just after close.

Interesting read from the vane website just posted in the last few hours:

"Bloomberg, By Simon Casey : 12-May-2005



Vane Starts Mining at Diablito Gold, Silver Project (Update1)



May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Vane Minerals Plc said it began mining at its Diablito gold and silver project in west-central Mexico, five months later than scheduled.

Vane has produced 450 metric tons of ore during test mining in Nayarit, the Leeds, England-based company said today in a Regulatory News Service statement. It also extended the haulage tunnel at the mine to 77 meters, and plans a second tunnel.

Vane had said when it listed on London's Alternative Investment Market on June 2 that mining would start before 2005.

Shares of Vane closed down 0.25 pence, or 1.2 percent, at 20.75 pence in London. They have increased 89 percent in the last year, giving the company a market value of 30.3 million pounds ($56.8 million). "

You're not alone Syd, logic to me seems to be inverted at the moment, not just with Vane. The way the market is at the moment if a company announced they had discovered green kryptonite then it's sp would probably go down.

In the end Friday turned out to be a balance of buys and sells.

tallsiii - how did you arrive at your conservative estimate of uranium extraction costs at $20 per lb? Presumably the original investigations were carried out (and mining thought viable) on the basis that uranium prices were around $20 per pound at most. So I would have expected extraction costs to be somewhat lower.

Pushed for time at the moment or I would write more.

Cheers, Madison

There is plenty of cash in the bank. Enough to get well into 2006 on the current cashburn. Then there is cash coming soon from Diablito's gold. We expect news of a new cashflow from Mina Charay to be announced in the near future. The cash from selling the uranium sites could be excellent (projections outlined by tallsiii above). That's cash now, cash soon, cash medium-term and big cash date unknown.

Vane is as well-placed as it can be in the current market, with a steady flow of news to come. If you're going to invest at all (I accept there are many good reasons not to at present) then it's going dirt cheap. This is not to say it can't get cheaper. But it's a quality stock, that given INVESTORS, has more reason to rise than most.

tallsiii has done an excellent (because it's very, very conservative) projection above. Here's another way of looking at it:

The income from Diablito, based on the last estimate of $3m per year (for seven years) works out at around 135,000 per month. This figure is going to be refined fairly soon, though with the gold price now higher than when that original estimate was made, it may well be upwards. This alone covers the vast majority of Vane's 143,000 per month cash burn.

(If all other things were to remain the same - which, of course, they won't - then Vane could carry on for the entire seven year life of Diablito and still have 1m in the bank.)

Which leaves the cashflow from Mina Charay, the sale of Guadalcazar and the sale of these first uranium sites all sitting nicely for free on top. (The gold and copper targets in Paraguay are in the background at the moment, but will eventually emerge into the limelight. The Freeport database use has only fairly recently been extended till 2006: presumably for a reason.)

Now you would have to be seriously negative to think that all of those prospects will misfire in some way! Especially with Vane's great track record and management. Of course I wouldn't claim my projection is anymore than a back of the envelope calculation. Before long we shall have a lot more information on which to pontificate more accurately, and I guess there's a few in the City waiting for that information too. In the meantime I hope that gives you some grounds for long term optimism if you are at all despondent at the current sp.

Cheers, Madison

Good morning everyone. Thanks for post Madison, Vane has dropped again ouch!!!!!!!......one has to have nerves of steel at the moment. We bought in at 23p, 22p and 21p and it has dropped through our stoploss, but we are hanging in there because like you we do believe in this share and are looking at the longterm. Regards Di and Paul.

Good morning everyone. Thanks for post Madison, Vane has dropped again ouch!!!!!!!......one has to have nerves of steel at the moment. We bought in at 23p, 22p and 21p and it has dropped through our stoploss, but we are hanging in there because like you we do believe in this share and are looking at the longterm. Regards Di and Paul.