cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
cynic
- 26 Jan 2008 16:30
- 761 of 21973
Havant haven't a hope (any more)!
On a more serious note ..... imo, any sensible investor will place a least a couple of short psotions for the next week, even if only as insurance .... the most obvious plays are the indices themselves, the easiest being FTSE and DOW, though the lesser indices on both sides of the Atlantic will also be possible ... for the really brave, there is HK and Japan, but though those are likely to reap the greatest rewards, they are very dangerous, if for no other reason that they are open while we sleep, and my goodness it will cost you dear if you call it wrong.
Of stocks, I think SOLA is a cinch, but then I have followed that for quite a while ..... A&L (AL.) is heavily vulnerable too .... indeed anything connected with the financial sector must surely be at risk of tumbling quite significantly.
spitfire43
- 26 Jan 2008 17:17
- 762 of 21973
SOLA still looks a short, but surprised it's hung on in last few day's, I like the look of KGF for a short, a new CEO announced Friday from within B&Q, market wanted someone from outside and divi cut looks certain, they have been strong recently.
FTSE worth shorting on any bounce up.
explosive
- 26 Jan 2008 21:24
- 763 of 21973
I'm looking to the oilies this week CNE and DGO. If the FTSE is holding or on the rally I'll be buying. Neither share imo should fall much further as both appear to have support... May play the indicies if I can see momentum with an RSI of 35+ looking upwards... Due to volitility though not much point betting with a stop loss in place which makes margins high, my broker asks for 200 x stake on wall st. if betting open, this means I'm unable to bet more than a few pounds per point and also cover the margin. I keep looking at Inter Continential Hotels for a buy, the sp has pretty much halved recently, anyone else got a view on this. Cynic and Spitfire I'll have a look at SOLA also, thanks for the tip..
cynic
- 27 Jan 2008 07:41
- 764 of 21973
if you are betting on the indices, always depending on the depth of your wallet, i would not reccomend too hefty a stake anyway .... also, with current volatility, you do need to be able to watch almost constantly, to take profits, cut losses and/or trade with the rhythm
spitfire43
- 27 Jan 2008 10:55
- 765 of 21973
explosive - I read a small article on IHG in shares 10th Jan, which was looking at the effects of a weak dollar, even at 763p the PE is 18. I have pasted article below incase you missed it.
Intercontinental Hotels (IHG) 861p
EPS growth: 23% 2008 PE: 18.7
Three-month relative strength: -13.8%
Sector: Travel & Leisure
The company maintains that it hasnt seen a slowdown in demand from US customers, but the US exchange rate is reducing earnings, and Cazenove has downgraded its forecasts. In terms of demand, US consumers are not rolling in money and hotels bookings are the first thing to be cut in tough times.
cynic
- 27 Jan 2008 14:33
- 766 of 21973
london hotels deserve to take an absolute caning .... their rack rates are embarrassment, exacerbated by the likes of Hilton who exclude VAT when quoting
explosive
- 28 Jan 2008 09:31
- 767 of 21973
Thanks fot the article spitfire, I did read in the mail on sunday something similar however. My logic is simply that the feds cut in interest rates should strengthed the USD which in turn will strenghten IHG.... Cynic, I'm only playing indicies with very small stakes, FTSE no more than 4 a point and 3 on wall st. with no stop loss in play my margin on the FTSE is 125 times stake and wall street is 200 times stake. Indicies looking gloomy today, tempted to place a sell, we shall see..
cynic
- 28 Jan 2008 09:49
- 768 of 21973
glad to hear you are being very cautious - very wise ...... FTSE holding up susprisingly well ...... have taken insurance by being SHORT FTSE, SOLA and now AL. ..... if wrong calls, then implication is that the gains on my long postions will counterbalance
cynic
- 28 Jan 2008 10:31
- 769 of 21973
am now short of DOW too as i fully expect 12000 to be challenged once more.
Tuesday, with the Fed meeting may also be interesting to say the least ......
read a very interesting article over w/e in which Bernanke was highlighted as being a leading expert on 30's crash and depression ..... in his opinion, much of this was down to lack of speedy and decisive action by the Fed, so clearly he will not wish to be hung with his own petard (explanation available!) ...... how the market will view that is open to question ..... Bernanke is also very critical, and i think rightly, of the European banks for doing virtually nothing .... as he says, Europe cannot fool itself into thinking it is insulated or immune.
explosive
- 28 Jan 2008 13:04
- 770 of 21973
Nice to have a counterbalance in play cynic, I expect 12000 on the DOW to be challenged this week, not sure of the support either as on last approach we saw the 75 basis points cut by the FED and still talk of more to come. Times like these its easy to be caught out.
CNE today has announced its very close to securing approval for pipeline to transport oil from its Rajasthan fields, 15th Feb is the date the FT think the deal will be signed by so plenty of time for the share to slip back. Gold is seeing higher prices which on the norm 9:1 ratio gold to oil indicates the price of oil will remain high. I think a spread buy here looking good for middle of Feb.
SOLA, I'm just going to watch this for the time being. Under 50 day MA's all indicate that a fall is coming however I don't like the bandwidth. RSI is also low, would have preferred a higher RSI 50ish on a downwards slope. You have history to your advantage with this one so best of luck with the short.
cynic
- 28 Jan 2008 13:23
- 771 of 21973
SOLA
have a look at PTH's analysis .... much better than mine .... resistance is no higher than 425 and maybe a bit lower
CNE
not followed this one for quite a while, but chart less than exciting and down a further 72p today
required field
- 28 Jan 2008 13:40
- 772 of 21973
By the way does anybody know of any dual listed stocks ? (JLP, Jubilee Platinum) is the only one I know of, listed in SA and on Aim and can be held in an ISA.
cynic
- 28 Jan 2008 13:53
- 773 of 21973
RIO!!
cynic
- 28 Jan 2008 15:36
- 774 of 21973
despite another set of appalling US housing figures, Dow has somewhat perversely staggered upwards ...... of course, that is everyone banking on another minimum 0.5% cut by Fed ...... meanwhile, European central banks do bugger all.
while one might argue that Fed is taking something of an alarmist stance, Bernanke will argue rightly or wrongly, that the Fed is at least doing something positive to try to head off the worst effects of any recession.
meanwhile, the European banks stand back and assume that Europe will blithely absorb and float through any US troubles ..... that has to be head in the sand stuff!
halifax
- 28 Jan 2008 15:59
- 775 of 21973
Cynic you are absolutely right , if you keep your head in the sand you get stuffed!
steveo
- 29 Jan 2008 13:34
- 776 of 21973
feels like bears gathering again, european banks report next month, more blood expected, think short positions in equities and even precious metals might be good for next week
cynic
- 29 Jan 2008 13:52
- 777 of 21973
very hard to call .... many forces pulling in opposite directions at the moment, but certainly one needs to be very watchful and nimble if trading
by the way, assume you do not mean to short precious metals
required field
- 29 Jan 2008 13:56
- 778 of 21973
Sold out of JKX, and bought back in the next day, (wish I could do that all the time), trouble is I get caught out sometimes !
BigTed
- 29 Jan 2008 13:59
- 779 of 21973
Just opened CFD account, will have some fun with some fairly small positions to start with!
required field
- 29 Jan 2008 14:03
- 780 of 21973
Don,t forget the stop losses Big Ted, and be prepared to take losses because you will have some as well as gains, Good luck !