Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

well that just cost the bank of japan 5 billion, "owch"

Spike up of 60 points on /USD - and I've got a small short on it that was +10 !!! What can cause that? Presumably compuetrs cut in.

Payrolls, maggot. I'm long EUR/USD and was starting to get a bit twitchy as it was testing the support line of the 2 day uptrend.

Tally Ho. Chocks away, Biggles.

Hilary your mail made me Blush :7)

Do you know Pascal, B?

Hil

One of my favourite quotes "The formal demands of logic cannot always have the final word" - Blaise Pascal.

One and the same?

Al,

Actually, Pascal's the Chef at Club Gascon.

Nice quote though.

:o)

;-)

I should've known!

No sugar Lips But you could introduce Me !

I'm sorry to be contrarian B, but offal and goose fat really don't do anything for me.

What about Lobster & Blackpudding that was my main course

With mushy peas?

:o)

Keep an eye on the EUR/USD 5 minute chart. The 3 day rising support line could come under a bit of pressure over the next couple of hours.

From the FT this evening:

Trichet concern over rapid rise of euro
By Tony Major in Frankfurt and Ed Crooks in London
Published: January 12 2004 20:51 | Last Updated: January 12 2004 20:51


Jean Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank president, on Monday gave his strongest signal yet of mounting concern in Europe over the rapid rise of the euro, saying "brutal" moves in the dollar were unwelcome for the eurozone.


Stepping up his rhetoric on exchange rates after a meeting of leading central bankers in Basel, Mr Trichet said excessive exchange rate volatility was "not welcome and not appropriate".

He added that Europe's policymakers were concerned, and stressed: "We are certainly not indifferent." His remarks sent the euro, which has traded at record highs on an almost daily basis since the end of last year, sharply lower. It briefly touched $1.29 during the morning.

"Now the markets know they are not pushing at an open door [on the dollar] . . . it's no longer a one-way bet," said Mark Cliffe of ING. "It looks as though we are beginning to see a new phase in the currency war."

Mr Trichet's words were markedly stronger than in his more cautiously expressed first effort to rein in the euro last Thursday. Then he said the ECB did not like excessive volatility - a statement that was seen as insufficiently strong to move the markets.

His latest "verbal intervention" is the first stage in a process that could ultimately lead to the ECB intervening on foreign exchange markets, although it would do so only as a last resort.

If it does intervene, the ECB would prefer a co-ordinated move with the US to increase its effectiveness, as in the effort to support the euro in 2000.

The meeting of the Group of Seven developed countries' finance ministers in Boca Raton, Florida on February 6-7 is expected to address the issue of currencies.

Speaking on Monday morning, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, France's prime minister, became the latest European politician to voice concerns over the appreciation of the euro. "I have to raise my concerns over the current instability in the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro," Mr Raffarin said in his first appearance before the press in the new year.

He said: "We must together, quickly, find the ways to ensure parities that are more compatible with economic reality."

Europe and Japan are expected to press for greater flexibility of Asian currencies in an attempt to ease pressure on the euro-dollar exchange rate.

Any effort to persuade the US to try to stop the dollar's decline is likely to be fruitless. Most analysts believe the Bush administration favours a lower dollar to help domestic exporters and narrow the national trade deficit.

Mr Trichet said there was "a mention" of excessive exchange-rate volatility by Europe in the course of Monday's central bankers' meeting, but it was not discussed as a risk to world growth.

If the euro surges above $1.30, and threatens to snuff out the eurozone's flickering upturn, the ECB will come under heavy pressure to cut interest rates.

Additional reporting by Robert Graham in Paris

Well, M. Trichet's comments knocked back not just the Euro, but also the pound which drew back 125 points from the peak. Really screwed up my trading today.

Now waiting to see if the market takes more than transitory notice of this and whether the trend will continue over the next few days.

Can anyone recommend a good real-time news feed for currency info?

Thanks for your contribution dc ..... I was beginning to wonder if I might be talking to myself.

There are some news links in the header plus you need, imo, AFX headline news which a few people are hoping will appear on am soon (hint, hint Mike).

As for strategy, I personally feel that you should currently be short the EUR/USD from yesterday (see post 71) following the break of the rising support line. As I type, the market looks to be forming a fresh high which will enable you to draw a resistance line between this current high and the high of yesterday on the 5 minute chart. I'm avoiding the Yen which currently looks a bit rangebound because of the risk of BoJ intervention.

Hmm, I'm very wary of going long on the dollar either with the euro or the pound. I've been tracking the trend on the pound and there still seems to be some very bearish sentiment on the dollar with little in the fundamentals to suggest a change in the trend. Certainly Trichet's comments will cause a pause but unless the ECB actually start intervening I think the market will continue to hammer the dollar.

For the moment I'm keeping a small long on the pound with a tight stop to see if the trend re-establishes itself.

Agree on the Yen. Been keeping an eye on it and the BoJ seem to be holding it firm. If they ever change their policy, or run out of money to support it, though then it might break very hard.

BTW, I'm using deal4Free spreadbet for these trades.

dc,

To avoid confusion in my earlier post, I'm still a greenback bear but I'm trading the 5 minute chart rather than the daily chart.

It's all a matter of timescale, isn't it :-) I think if the pound drops through the 1.8420 support it could tumble quite far today, but it's a hard call to make and I gave quite enough money to this trade yesterday so I'm probably going to stand aside today and see how it unfolds.

Hmm, the euro seems to be holding stronger than the pound this morning.

re realtime news try fxcm via the real / demo trading client