I am a trader as well as an investor and hopefully this thread will reflect both aspects ....

We should start by saying this is a highly speculative share and the market takes no prisoners.

Over the last 18 months I made lots twice in the early days - then lost it back - bought a million at 2.6p average - founded the TAG - bought another half a million or so at sub 1p - sold most at average 4.25 - bought back at 2.2p and less - sold most at 3.5p and now buying back - overall a good net profit at this time.

I think the d4e will happen (say 90% chance) and the 3% currently talked about will give or should give a price equating to say 3/5p. Longer term on succcess of d4e and progress in the sales market the shares should move to around 10p - assumming markets are not in freefall.

I am looking to buy at any time and hoping for a war generated dip - when I do I will let you know.

The TAG site is a great place for catching up on the TWT news and I will post here as well.

Currently trading on TWT is light (1.7 million traded) and the price is down a littlw with a wide spread (2.01/2.35p). This is a sets share and you must expect a crtain amount of manipulation in these troubled times - FTSE down over 4% intraday

I have a core holding of at least half a million shares and intend to be a long term investor at this time.


ainsoph


http://www.investoraction.co.uk - currently we have 804 registered members holding around 100 million shares in total

BT rivals question broadband figures

London, February 13 2003, (netimperative)



by Richard Agnew

BT was accused of "muddling" its broadband user figures today, after citing increasing penetration as evidence for potential renewed growth in revenues.


In its results for the last three months of 2002, the company posted a 37% rise in pre-tax profits to 521m, but saw its shares drop 4% this morning due to concerns over growth and a potential hole in its pension scheme.

The firm posted a less-than-expected 1% increase in sales to 4.7bn, but sought to reassure investors that "record broadband sales" in January of 25,000 per week, giving it a total of 650,000 end users at the start of this month, signalled renewed potential for growth.

Chief executive Ben Verwaayen said: "We generated our highest ever broadband sales, with in excess of 25,000 per week in January, launched a major market awareness campaign, reduced wholesale and retail connection charges and lowered the exchange upgrade trigger levels, demonstrating our strong commitment to broadband Britain."

But the company was accused by rivals of presenting a confusing picture by adopting overall ADSL market figures - its wholesale customer base rather than that of its ISP arms BT Openworld and BT Retail - as its main indicator.

Reacting to the results, Telewest Broadband MD Gavin Patterson said: "BT is muddling its numbers with a confusing combination of business and residential customers. It's using over 100 ADSL resellers to stake a claim in broadband Britain, but still trailing in our wake."

The overall ADSL market, including customers of BT and ISPs such as AOL and Freeserve, was 650,000 at the start of February, according to figures from BT Wholesale. But the overall broadband market, including ADSL, satellite, cable and wireless users, according to Oftel's latest figures, stood at 1.4m by the end of December.

Meanwhile, BT Retail, whose broadband user base is now believed to have reached around 100,000, posted an operating profit of 379m on sales of 3.3bn. BTopenworld, whose subscriber base stood at 244,000 at the end of December, posted a loss of 8m on sales of 75m. The two arms, which have since merged, have now gained over half of the ADSL market.

Elsewhere, BT's debt mountain was further reduced by 195m to 12.9bn, and has since been cut further by January's sale of the company's stake in Cegetel for 2.6bn.

However, the firm warned it could face a shortfall of up to 1.5bn in its pension fund, although an official valuation of the fund will not be calculated until May.

www.bt.com

News - February 14,2003
NTL & Telewest Snub 3.4Ghz Auction ISP

By:mark.j @ 9:57:AM - News Comments - Apparently neither of the UKs primary cable operators (NTL and Telewest) are likely to take any part in the government's May 3.4GHz broadband wireless auction:

"We've got enough on our plate at the moment," Tony Grace, managing director of Telewest Business, explained. Grace added that this decision won't necessarily prevent Telewest from offering wireless broadband services in the future.

"I think you'll see a lot of partnerships formed, as companies work together and share the initial investment in these broadband technologies," Grace added.

It is also understood that NTL has no plans to bid for a 3.4GHz licence. NTL has shown considerable interest in wireless broadband, and is currently conducting a trial of a consumer broadband service in London.

Despite this the government is still confident that the auction will be a success, much as they have been with all of their past attempts; didnt most of them fail? More @ ZDNet.

Sarah Arnott [13-02-2003] infomatics


Pair sign five-year deal for managed virtual private network
Building society Bristol & West has said that its 4.5m network upgrade will quadruple available bandwidth and underpin the move towards browser-based computing.
Bank of Ireland UK Financial Services, which owns Bristol & West, signed a five-year deal with network provider Telewest Business in November to supply a managed virtual private network using Internet Protocol.

The society is now rolling out the technology to 140 locations, which should take until April.

The ability to set quality of service levels on an application-by-application basis is a key benefit of the new system, according to Jon Lethbridge, head of IT strategy and planning at Bank of Ireland UK Financial Services.

"With the old system, everything that goes up and down the pipe is treated the same," he explained.

"But some applications are more important than others. For example, systems involved in savings transactions should take precedence over cashiers looking at the intranet.

"With the new service we can manage the traffic and make sure that key applications get a high quality of service, fitting the others in around them."

Being able to prioritise network traffic underpins Bristol & West's move towards browser-based computing, with multiple applications accessed through a standard browser.

"Browser sessions clogged up the old network very quickly, but this technology allows us to manage that traffic and deliver a better service," said Lethbridge.

The increased bandwidth will also allow the company to deliver images across the network.

Traditional paper forms, such as mortgage applications, can now be replaced by electronic versions which can be accessed from a central repository.

"The bottom line is that we have some new applications and some new styles of using technology, and the existing network didn't support them," explained Lethbridge.

The project is expected to pay back in 12 months by recouping on supplier costs. "We are managing to upgrade our capacity without extra cost," he said.

Legal action mulled over NTL BB cap
By Tim Richardson
Posted: 14/02/2003 at 15:19 GMT


Angry NTL customers are considering legal action over the cableco's decision to cap its broadband service.

The Register understands that lawyers are currently examining the possibilities of setting up a "group action" against the cableco.

The fact that a legal team is mulling court action shows the depth of feeling among customers and is a sure sign that the row over the 1 Gig/day capping is unlikely to fade away quietly.

Shares are edging up and it seems unlikely I will be able to add/buyback at 2p or less and guess I will look to add at sub 2.5p .... I am sure we are getting close to a d4e proposal in detail and a merger will happen in due course but think end of year timing is a little premature

ains




February 15, 2003

Banks say Telewest merger with NTL would require 1bn
By Dan Sabbagh, Telecoms Correspondent TIMES



A MERGER between NTL and Telewest, the cable telecom companies, could happen as soon as the end of this year but would require the injection of as much as 1 billion of cash if the deal is to win the support of both parties lending banks, banking insiders said last night.
The two companies are coming under investor pressure to open talks soon after Telewest completes its 3.5 billion financial restructuring some time in the early summer.

It is felt that the cable industry needs to unite quickly to fight off intense competition from BT and BSkyB.

Financiers said that the new money is required because a number of banks have lent heavily to NTL and Telewest debts which have remained unimpaired during both companies respective debt-for-equity swaps.

If the two came together, some bank credit committees are unlikely to sanction such a large exposure to a single company, meaning that between 600 million and 1 billion would have to be raised to refinance the overdrafts.

NTL and Telewest do not overlap and although they co-operate on a number of minor matters, an analysis circulating in the cable industry has concluded there are between 250 million and 300 million of annual capital and operational savings that could be wrought from a tie-up.

Currently, it is understood that there are no merger talks between the two companies and relations between Barclay Knapp, president and chief executive of NTL, and Charles Burdick, Telewests managing director, are thought to be cool. Of the two, Telewest is keener to strike a deal because its finances are in better shape and its top management team more stable.

Telewest declined to comment yesterday, but earlier this week Mr Burdick was reported as saying that the company would be the first cable company in the world to turn cashflow positive at the end of this year and that its restructuring was much less disruptive to the organisation than the $11 billion (6.8 billion) one completed by NTL last month.

A spokeswoman for NTL also refused to comment. She said it was not the companys policy to discuss its view on a tie-up with Telewest.

The need for a cash injection could be an opportunity for a strategic investor such as Liberty Media, Telewests largest investor, to increase its interest in UK cable. Libertys 25 per cent holding in Telewest will be diluted to about 11 per cent as a result of the companys restructuring and the American investment group controlled by John Malone is expected to see its three board seats reduced to just one.

Most of Telewests new shares will be controlled by bond investors, who overlap with the investment group that rescued NTL. The fund controlled by Bill Huff, NTLs acting chairman, will have about 10 per cent of the reconstructed Telewest which mirrors the size of his holding at NTL.

Telewests restructuring will see bondholders take 97 per cent of the company, with existing shareholders being left with the remaining 3 per cent.

Ainsoph a copy of a post on both advfn and the 3i site below.

By the way on the advfn site various people have started to impersonate you, therefore I have posted a comment on the TAG thread there to inform people that they should ignore "virtual" "new" ainsops and contact you via the TAG website or email on the thread header for direct TAG info. I also indicated you were not posting there at present

cut and paste below

The latest position with twt is encouraging and shows signs of moving to a conclusion where we can at least be moderately confident (geopolitical risks aside) twt will survive, and with us on board albeit in a much reduced capacity.

I had always said that this twt deal was the best of a bad job (debt for equity) and I still get angry when I think of all the (quite frankly) downright "disinformation" received from certain official quarters. However life moves on and the world today is a very different place from that of the year 2000/2001. Providing the debt for equity deal continues to progress/complete and Telewest continues to survive the TAG's role will come to an end. We came into existence to prevent an Energis style collapse emanating from the debt for equity and to date that has been averted. We will remain around until the process is complete.

It will be, sad to relate, a long long time before some of us re-coop our initial investment, indeed as one poster commented a year or so ago we may well have to hand our shares on to our grandchildren before the "real" value reaches the equivalent of 1 again.

However short of completely unknown events I believe we have avoided administration. Thats a start. Another milestone will be reached when we can all make a decision to cash our twt shares for a reasonable equity stake to invest elsewhere (if that is our wish) In my case that milestone is about 12p or so.

I will continue to look in here occasionally and will post as and when real news develops.

The TAG will be wound up/I will resign at the conclusion of the debt for equity deal. Best wishes for the future

Paul

Hi Paul ..... your post prompted several people to mail me privately asking where they could find me for the future and I have pointed them in the obvious direction of the website and here ..... I do occasionly post on iii and TMF .... and even HS when the occasion warrants.

The opening post covers my current situation - I hold maybe a million shares + and have a chunk of profits from trading that I am looking to reinvest/speculate. I was hoping for sub 2p in a dip but have raised the target to sub 2.4p.


ains


latest news

Telewest Foreshadows NTL Merger


By Mike Farrell
Multichannel News
2/17/2003



The complete text of this article is available only to subscribers.

Abstract: Telewest Communications plc, the United Kingdom's second-biggest cable operator, said it would reach cash-flow positive status by the end of this year six months earlier than originally expected and said that a merger with NTL Inc., the No. 1 U.K. MSO, could happen in 2004. Talking to Dow Jones Newswires in London last week, Telewest managing director Charles Burdick said an ear...

February 16, 2003

Broadband shines amid the telecoms gloom
The number of homes and firms with high-speed internet access is 1.5m and rising, says Paul Durman of the S Times



The cable-television companies, NTL and Telewest, also offer broadband, although a different variety known as cable modem. Between them, the cable companies have about 800,000 broadband customers. After a slow start, Britain now has nearly 1.5m homes and small businesses with broadband facilities.

Browsing websites using a broadband connection is a much quicker and more pleasant experience than with a traditional dial-up connection. It is less frustrating, and users are inclined to spend more time on the internet.

Gavin Patterson, managing director of Telewests consumer division, says: People are just doing more of what they did before. Time online is about four times what it was in the dial-up world. Some people are spending more time online than theyre spending on TV. Theres more chat, theres more e-mailing, more photography, more web-browsing. And it is made for the adult market.

The 10 most popular websites among Telewests Blueyonder broadband customers include seven that offer adult entertainment.


full story @ http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-578757,00.html

There is an encouraging article in todays Sunday Times business section about broadband growth. Telewest are mentioned favourably. It was also quite amusing to note that Telewest commented that out of their 10 most popular websites, 7 were of an "adult nature"...........

I always said the two things that are guarenteed to make money on the net is sex and money..:)

NETIMPERATIVE COMMENT: Sky should fear the cable guys

14/February/2003

Latest figures from Oftel, BT, and a statement by Telewest CEO Charles Burdick all point to one thing - cable is on the move. After a couple of years of financial hell, both NTL and Telewest are at last preparing for their long-expected merger and it seems there can be only one loser, young Sky.


As BT unveiled yesterday, it claims more than 50% of the ADSL broadband market with an estimated 350,000 users signed up under either BT Retail or the fast disappearing BTopenworld in a total market of 680,000 ADSL users. A strategy of determined stubbornness towards local loop unbundling, among other things, has left it in prime position and with few competitors.

However, the real success story is cable broadband. Oftel says there are 769,000 end users of cable broadband services and that's before Telewest reports its new figures very soon. Combined, NTL and Telewest are available to 13.3m homes, the vast bulk of which can access broadband services if they so choose. And the likelihood is, that so choose they will.

It has long been thought that if only the two cable sisters could address their ugly, nay monstrous debts, they ought to be able to press home a distinct advantage - the potential for users to put their TV, phone and internet access costs onto one bill and with one supplier. BT and Sky, spotting the threat, have spent the past two years seeking ways of joining forces to offer an all-in-one style package of their own, but a true fit has been impossible.

Thus, especially as broadband interest snowballs, consumers are finding that cable is by far the simplest option - costs are somewhat more manageable too. For BT, safe as houses in its monopoly world of phone line exchanges, this is an irritance but barely a real bother. It has always known that its only option was to do what it could to hang on to the local exchanges for as long as possible and exercise its marketing power to make its ADSL package the most obvious.

For Sky, on the other hand, the likely dominance of cable puts an almighty spanner in the works. While Sky Digital - on which it has done a fantastic job - has been the most viable option for iTV users, it could claim dominance of both content and delivery. As cable becomes more populated, it will gradually be left with only its (costly) content and, as the balance of power shifts, you can bet the cable companies will want to press their advantage when it comes to content negotiations.

Even worse for the satellite kings is that, once Telewest is able to clear its debt with the banks - as it surely will - it is clear to at last join forces properly with its estranged cable partner and, together, they pose a significant power. The geographical overlap of the Telewest and NTL networks is negligible enough to keep integration costs - and interference from the Competition Commission - to a minimum and their combined promotional budgets will be the subject of much adland attention.

Charles Burdick says Telewest could be cash-flow positive by the end of this year. With its whopping interest payments removed under its financial restructuring, it should be a good deal more than that. And once it is, a ball Sky would rather remained flat will indeed start rolling.

ainsoph

Thanks for posting the above. That is the most bullish commentary on TWT's operational prospects I have seen. Perhaps there are real chances of the 3 to 4p we expect to see (on confirmation of restructuring) growing significantly in the next year or two.

I think there is every chance jaffa ...... My guess currently is maybe 5p - on the assumption of a deal that is acceptable. That would equate to an old share price of say 150p. Talk of a merger and/or good figues from the company at that time will easily support this kind of price. I do not see the bondholders selling out in the near future after the d4e



ains

Telewest looking into 606 Interactive problem
18:01 GMT, Monday 17th February 2003 -- by James Welsh
Telewest is looking into fixing problems experienced on its digital cable service with the BBC's 606 Interactive service "as a matter of urgency", the cable operator told Digital Spy today.

Word has seeped out that angry NTL customers, whom are opposed to the operators recent bandwidth cap on broadband services, are to gather outside this weeks Internet Industry Awards in London:

Those behind the direct action are hoping that a demo outside the event will help raise public awareness while causing maximum embarrassment to the cableco.

Users had hoped that a wave of protests planned for Valentine's Day would help make NTL reconsider its decision to cap broadband use to 1Gb a day. At this stage, it's still not known whether the protests - including the threat of mass disconnections from the service - materialised to any great degree.

The Register notes that an online petition against the cap has now garnered some 2,700 digital signatures.

morning ains - TWT quiet again today.

very much so jeetha ....

recently average daily volumes have been close to 12 million but yesterday we had 2.5 million and just 578K this morning ..... I have them on alert and will be interested if there is a dip


ains

Tuesday 18th February 2003


Broadband UK Internet connections reach one in ten
[Computer Buyer] 12:32

The Office of National Statistics has covered the month of December 2002 in its latest monthly report on UK Internet connectivity.
The headline figure is that the total number of subscriptions for access to the Internet actually fell - month on month - by 1.1 per cent. This is attributed to seasonal factors involving the Christmas holiday. On a yearly basis, however, Internet connectivity grew 7.4 per cent compared with December 2001.

Of more interest is the statistic that 10.1 per cent of subscriptions to the Internet now involve fast dedicated access (broadband or fixed lines). The Office of National Statistics reports that the yearly growth for permanent connections was 262.7 per cent, with an increase of 7.3 per cent from November to December 2002.

By contrast, the relative decline of dial-up connections - which include ISDN - has continued. The figure for December 2002 stands at 89.9 per cent, down from the 97 per cent of all subscriptions in December 2001.

Make no mistake, however - this is not to say that one in ten people now enjoy broadband. The official figures relate to the nature of Internet subscriptions. Nevertheless, the stats provide a useful and consistent indication of the take up of broadband.

Alun Williams

Volumes were 3.6 mill yesterday - which is about a third of the current daily average - 430K in two hours today but shares still holding up with sets a little uninspiring .... still have cash to spend

ains



BSkyB is leading the way in the media industry, being one of the few media companies tipped to be upgraded, after Moodys raised its outlook of its long-term debt rating from stable to positive, says The Financial Times.

relatively quiet again this morning with just a million traded - aa always sets determines the pace


ains


NTL Insults Customers Over DL Cap

By:mark.j @ 9:49:AM - News Comments - SendNews [HERE] / PrintNews [HERE]NTLs reason for not informing its broadband cable modem service customers of the new download limit was because it didn't think they were intelligent enough to understand it!:

So says Kingsley Smith, the campaigner behind the Don't Pay NTL, who met Bill Goodland, NTL's Internet director, and Steve Upton (Technical/Network Manager) in Hook yesterday to discuss the cableco's decision to cap its broadband service.

According to Mr Smith, the decision to cap the service was taken by Mr Goodland. And it was he who decided not to tell customers because he "didn't think they were 'Tech' enough to understand".

So exactly how technologically minded do you have to be to understand a 1GB daily download limit? More @ The Register.

a million sell at 235 away from sets