Trading statement today - not good and shares have halved - just starting a thread in case anyone is interested in looking for the dcb ....

Currently 19p to buy - not thinking of buying at this time but just started tracking



ains


last bought 25/02 @ 12.5 last sold 26/02 for 10% gain

Inclined to agree but not looking for an investment for life ..... talk of new management initiative or break up will soon get them bouncing a little - question is - from where?


ains

Agree with you there ainsoph.......not an investment for life this one..

The Sunday Times - Business



February 23, 2003

Share of the Week



IT IS extraordinary to think that just 10 years ago the company now known as Invensys was one of the dozen biggest on the stock market. The former BTR has suffered a miserable decline since the departure of Sir Owen Green, a process only hastened by the unpopular merger with Siebe and the disastrous acquisition of Baan. The shares fell to 16p last week, not helped by Moodys negative outlook on its credit rating. Moodys is concerned that Invensys will struggle to meet its cashflow and earnings targets, already low following the latest profit warning 10 days ago. Invensys has become a bonfire of reputations, and there are no quick fixes for Rick Haythornthwaite, chief executive.

Guardian reports: the shares fell 0.25p to 17.5p after dealers blamed the fall on selling by index trackers. Invensys will fall out of the FTSE 100 at the next quarterly review in March. There were also fears that the engineering company could breach its banking covenants. In order for Invensys to access its banking facilities analysts believe net interest payments must be covered at least 3.5 times by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). However, they point out that even after last week's grim profits warning, the company should generate 340m of EBITDA in the year to March 30, 2004, while net interest payments will total 85m, leaving them covered four times.

biggest loser in top 100 this morning - down over 6% on 3 million traded - US futures marginally up on fair value


ains

24 Feb 2003 12:20 GMT

Invensys extends crash on outlook, banking fears

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Troubled British engineering group Invensys Plc ISYS.L extended the slump in its share price to a new all-time low on Monday as worries deepened about its recovery prospects and exposure to banking covenants.
At 1215 GMT Invensys shares were down 12.3 percent at 14-1/4 pence, the worst performer in the FTSE 100 Index. Invensys has slumped 94 percent in the past three years and lost two-thirds of its value just this month, slashing its market capitalisation to about 510 million pounds ($805 million).

The latest rout was sparked on February 14, when Invensys warned core operating profit in the second half of its financial year could fall 25 percent from the first half.

Analysts said the shares were hit by doubts it will be able to make its 2004 margin targets, its pension liabilities and worries it may have to renegotiate banking covenants, despite Invensys saying it was confident it will meet its covenants "comfortably".

Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Friday cut its outlook on the company to negative from stable, citing weakness in certain businesses "that will prevent the company from meeting its earnings and cash flow targets for the current fiscal year and possibly beyond."

One analyst, who asked not to be named, said: "This company has been mis-managed for a long time, it's been losing competitiveness, trading is tough, and although the balance sheet has been improving, now the (banking) covenants are coming back as an issue. There is a risk."

Invensys, which was formed in 1999 when Siebe acquired diverse engineering group BTR, makes controls and automation equipment for factories, offices and homes.

The company has cut jobs and sold assets to slash debt, but has been hit by a downturn in telecoms and information technology services and a weak U.S. commercial building market.

AFX on close

Engineering group Invensys was the heaviest blue-chip faller with a drop of 10.7 percent as worries grew about the company's ability to recover from poor trading and its exposure to banking covenants.

"I'm sure the banking covenants are OK at the moment, but if things continue as they are, one does have doubts about whether or not the company will survive," said Derek Mitchell, director of UK equities at ISIS Asset Management (LSE: ISIS.L - news) .

Another Ainsoph Kiss of Death

Kiss a teddy.

Still tracking and waiting to buy ...... or not

Heading south again this morning - must be another trade in there sometime soon :-))


ains



Invensys at 20-year low on bank fears
25 February 2003, Daily Mail

LECTRICAL engineer Invensys plunged to a 20-year low amid fears that it will breach banking agreements next year.




At 14 1/2p, down 1 3/4p at the close on Monday, the shares have fallen 60% since the profits warning on February 14.


The former BTR-Siebe warned of a steep slump in the half to March. The shares were 4 a year ago. New chief executive Rick Haythornthwaite took over last summer and has speeded up disposals to raise cash.


Invensys says it remains 'confident' that it will meet commitments. To avoid breaching covenants, March 2004 trading profits must be at least 3.5 times interest bills. Its broker Merrill Lynch predicts 100m interest and 355m trading profits next year.


That forecast depends on Baan, the troubled software division, breaking even from October. It is presently losing 500,000 a month.


Rating agency Standard & Poor's sees a 'significant chance' of another downgrade.



2003 Associated Newspapers Ltd.

Waiting for 3p, then buy.

patient teddy

Doesnt look good from where I'm sitting so I guess its best to sit on the sidelines till they sort their problems out..

Don't catch a falling knife, let the dust settle first.

wise teddy

I bought a few as part of an overnight play - 12.5p


ains

from the Telegraph

Traders spent yesterday speculating which companies would fall out of the FTSE 100 when it is reshuffled on March 12.

Hilary Cook, director of investment strategy at Barclays Private Clients, said troubled engineering group Invensys, which last night had a market cap of about 440m, was "pretty much certain" to fall out of the list of leading blue-chip shares at the quarterly update.


Fears that Invensys may breach its banking covenants were behind the shares' tumble yesterday. Under the covenants, interest payments must be covered 3.5 times by earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation.

Some analysts believe that while the company will comfortably meet that requirement this year, it will come close to testing those levels in 2004.

They said Invensys has some breathing space as it has no debt payable before June 2004 but with ratings agency Standard & Poor's placing its rating on negative outlook, any further deterioration in trading could be critical. Invensys fell 2 to 12.5p on heavy volumes.

However, a spokesman for Invensys said: "You would have to put on a pretty apocalyptic projection for us to breach the covenants." He said interest was currently covered 5.3 times and that disposals would reduce interest charges next year.

There we go ..... first talk of a potential bid


TIMES
Invensys showed no signs of reversing its post-profit- warning slide, 2p lower to 12p, valuing its equity at just 438 million. Although it is saddled with 1.6 billion of debt, some analysts believe it is now at a level where the likes of GE and Honeywell of the US, or Schneider of France, may consider a break-up approach.

Heading the risers charts :-)) ..... plus 10%




ains

Will cash my profits ..... 2nd time since thread started ..... will look for another entry another day



ains :-))

reuters

Battered engineering group Invensys was top FTSE 100 gainer, bouncing 10 percent to 14p after investment bank CSFB raised its rating to "neutral" from "underperform".

Bank your profit quick and buy a teddy bear to cuddle.

teddy